ATP 1000 BNP Paribas Open Odds, Picks, and Tennis Betting Analysis

Although not a Grand Slam event, the BNP Paribas Open, held annually in Indian Wells, California, has all the feels of one as there are seven rounds (the top seeds do get byes in the opening round though), similar to Slams and the field is stacked with many of the world’s top players.

Many tennis observers refer to this event as the sport’s “fifth major,” given its slam-like field and the hype that surrounds it. One notable difference is that the format entails competitors engaging in best-of-3 set matches as opposed to the best-of-5 format at Slams.

While many of the best will be in the California desert, a few of the world’s best, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, will not be in attendance, Djokovic, a four-time champion of the event, reigning Aussie Open titlist and world Number 1, was unable to enter the United States due to his vaccination status. Nadal, a player who has hoisted the trophy three times at Indian Wells, is absent due to a leg injury sustained down under.

Here, we look at the ATP odds, tournament draw and what players could end up making a run to the title in this ATP 1000-level event.

ATP 1000 BNP Paribas Open Odds, Picks, and Tennis Betting Analysis

BNP Paribas Open Tournament Info | Updated ATP Odds
When: March 6 – 19, 2023
Where: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, CA, USA
Matches: Men’s singles, women’s singles, men’s doubles and women’s doubles action

Top Seeds To Watch

Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz is the top seed in the wake of Djokovic’s absence while Stefano Tsitsipas of Greece is seeded second, Casper Ruud of Norway is third, and defending champion Taylor Fritz of America is fourth. Alcaraz is a player who has had somewhat of a meteoric rise up the ATP rankings and did spend some time at Number 1 in 2022. He was a semifinalist here last year, falling to countryman Nadal in the semis.

Of the other three, Fritz, despite being the reigning champ, is the most vulnerable and will likely offer the least value betting. He lost in the second round Down Under, dropped semifinals to lower-seeded players in both Dallas and Mexico but was able to win the event in Delray, seemingly gaining a modicum of momentum in what has been a non-spectacular start to the year.

Down the Draw

Since his improbable run in Australia, Ben Shelton has struggled. The 20-year old should get by his opening-round match opposite Italian clay court specialist Fabio Fognini but then will play Fritz, the defending champ, who, like all seeded players received an opening-round bye. While Fognini certainly has the experience edge, appearing in some 736 ATP-sanctioned matches compared to just 12 from Shelton, the younger from Florida should win, and we like him to give Fritz a hard time in the round of 64.

Another American who has played well as of late is J.J. Wolf, the former Ohio State collegian who actually fell to Shelton in the fourth round in Melbourne. Wolf played well in Dallas, downing Francis Tiafoe before succumbing to John Isner.

We feel as though he is one of those young players who is poised to make somewhat of a run on his preferred surface (hard court) in a section of the draw littered with Europeans known for their prowess on other surfaces.

His opening-found foe is a cagey veteran in the Hungarian Marton Fucsovics who is slightly below .500 for his career on the hard courts. The two have never met in a main draw, although Wolf does own a win over him during qualifying round play in Vienna last year, dispatching of Fucsovics in three sets.

What is the BNP Paribas Open?
The BNP Paribas Open is the largest combined ATP Tour Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event in the tennis world.

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ATP 1000 BNP Paribas Open Odds, Picks, and Tennis Betting Analysis