The Nitto ATP Finals began on Sunday in Turin, Italy, and we’re now through two match days for both the Red and Green Groups. Six of the eight players who qualified for the year-end tournament are still in contention, while Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev have officially been eliminated. Let’s see the preview of your favorite bets.
Updated Outright Betting Odds
- Novak Djokovic -163
- Casper Ruud +550
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +600
- Felix Auger-Aliassime +800
- Andrey Rublev +1000
- Taylor Fritz +1400
Medvedev Out of Contention
Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas played an epic, three-set match on Wednesday in what was a must-win for both players. Tsitsipas kept his ATP Finals hopes alive with a 6-3, 6-7 (13), 7-6 (7) victory.
Medvedev saved three match points in the second set but wasn’t able to overcome the talented Greek player in the third set. Tsitsipas has now won his last two matches against the former world No. 1.
It’s a surprising result for Medvedev, who finished as runner-up to Alex Zverev in last year’s ATP Finals and won the event in 2020. He’ll play Novak Djokovic in an otherwise meaningless match to conclude his tournament on Friday.
Tsitsipas, meanwhile, will play Andrey Rublev to determine who advances to the semifinal along with Djokovic. Rublev lost 6-4, 6-1 to Djokovic on Wednesday.
Nadal and Casper Ruud were scheduled to play early Thursday morning in Turin. Nadal is already eliminated from contention, and Ruud has already punched his ticket into the semifinals with victories over Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The headline match on Thursday is between Fritz and Auger-Aliassime. Both players are 1-1 with victories over Nadal, meaning whoever wins will earn a spot in the semifinals with Ruud. They’ve only played each other once before, with Fritz earning the victory at an ATP Cup Australia event earlier this season.
Auger-Aliassime, however, is one of the hottest players on tour right now. He has four tournament victories this season, including three in his last four events, and owns an overall record of 56-25. Fritz has three titles this season and is 43-19.
Auger-Aliassime is the betting favorite at -175, while Fritz pays out +137 to win. Set betting looks like this: Auger-Aliassime 2-0 (+150), Auger-Aliassime 2-1 (+260), Fritz 2-0 (+333), and Fritz 2-1 (+375). Their last match went three sets.
A Look Ahead to Friday
The only match that matters Friday is the late afternoon affair between Rublev and Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas is the -163 moneyline favorite, while Rublev is paying out +130. They’ve played each other ten times, with Tsitsipas holding a 6-4 advantage.
Set betting odds are as follows: Tsitsipas 2-0 (+162), Tsitsipas 2-1 (+260), Rublev 2-0 (+300), and Rublev 2-1 (+350). Five of their last eight matches have been three sets, and expect the same here.
The winner of the match moves on to play Ruud on the weekend. The winner of Fritz vs. Auger-Aliassime will play Djokovic in the other semifinal.