Updated Mutua Madrid Open Odds and Picks

Updated Mutua Madrid Open Odds and Picks

Written by on May 2, 2023

The ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Masters is down to the final 16 players, and most of the favorites and top seeds are still alive. The tournament has gone one without a hitch from La Caja Magica despite the absence of injured superstars Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. 

Four of the top 10 seeds have been eliminated, but only one of the top five favorites is gone. No. 6 seed Holger Rune was +1600 to win the title but lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round. No. 3 seed Casper Ruud, No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime, and No. 9 Frances Tiafoe also lost earlier this week. 

Let’s take a look at the updated ATP lines for the 2023 Mutua Madrid Open and some of the first-round odds at MyBookie.


Updated Mutua Madrid Open Odds and Picks | MyBookie Tennis Betting Preview

2023 Mutua Madrid Open
When: 25 April − 7 May, 2023
Category: ATP Tour Masters 1000 | WTA 1000
Where: Park Manzanares, La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay / outdoor


Alcaraz Remains the Favorite

Carlos Alcaraz opened the tournament as the favorite and remains the top choice as the tournament enters the Round of 16. Before the tournament began, he was +100 to win the title, but now he’s -145 to be the last man standing on Sunday. 

Alcaraz, who is now 25-2 on the season, faces No. 13 Alexander Zverev in the round of 16. Alcaraz beat Zverev in the finals of this event last year, but the German prevailed in the quarterfinals of the French Open. 

If Alcaraz gets past Zverev, as expected, he will face the winner of the all-Russian matchup between No. 5 Andrey Rublev and No. 10 Karen Khachanov. Alcaraz is 2-0 against Khachanov but has never faced Rublev, the winner of the Monte Carlo Masters. 

Rublev is now +1800 to win his second Masters tournament of the clay court season. He has won both matches in straight sets so far, and whoever makes the semifinal between Alcaraz, Zverev, Rublev, and Khachanov will face, at best, a No. 17 seed in the semifinals. 


Tsitsipas Surviving

The No. 4 seed has the second-best odds to win it all, with Stefanos Tsitsipas at +450 on the updated odds. He started the Madrid Open at +900, but with seeded players Auger-Aliassime, Tiafoe, and Tommy Paul eliminated, his path to the semifinal is clear. 

The problem for Tsitsipas has been breaking serve. He’s needed three sets to win both of his matches so far, dispatching wild card Dominic Thiem in a final-set tiebreak before beating No. 25 Sebastian Baez 6-3 in the third. 

Tsitsipas is 22-6 on the season, and he will face unseeded players until at least the semifinals. In the semis, he could face No. 2 Daniil Medvedev or No. 8 Taylor Fritz. 


Medvedev and Fritz on Collision Course

If not Tsitsipas at the bottom of the draw, it will likely be Medvedev or Fritz. Medvedev opened at +1200, and he’s now +600. Meanwhile, Fritz opened up at +3500 and is now +1200 to win in Madrid. 

Medvedev won his first match in Madrid in straight sets and then knocked off Alex Shevchenko in three sets. He will face unseeded Aslan Karatsev in the round of 16 and either Fritz or Zhizhen Zhang in the quarterfinals. 

Fritz hasn’t lost a set yet in this tournament and has taken two tiebreakers to reach the round of 16. He has never faced Zhang or Karatsev and is 0-1 against Medvedev, should they meet in the quarterfinals. 

Bet Mutua Madrid Open to Win
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Tsitsipas Faces Baez, Medvedev vs Shevchenko, Tiafoe & Fritz Feature | Madrid 2023 Highlights Day 6


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