Braves vs. Phillies: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

Braves vs. Phillies: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

If the Philadelphia Phillies play another home game vs. Atlanta this year after Wednesday, it will be in the National League playoffs as both the Phils and Braves are going to get there. Atlanta is favored on the MLB odds Wednesday behind Cy Young contender Spencer Strider.


Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis MyBookie Sportsbook

MLB Week 23: Monday September 11 – Sunday September 17, 2023


How to Bet Atlanta at Philadelphia MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Spencer Strider/Cristopher Sanchez
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio:
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -175, Phillies +155 (total 9)


Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves already have clinched a playoff spot and should clinch the NL East no later than this weekend if not as soon as possibly Wednesday depending on what happened Tuesday. Atlanta’s current five-year run of division titles is already the longest active streak in the majors. Atlanta has not clinched the division prior to game No. 150 in a full, 162-game season since 2002. The Braves last year did not secure the division until the penultimate game of the season.

Reliever Jesse Chavez began (1.55 ERA) a rehab assignment Tuesday with Triple-A Gwinnett. Chavez has been on the shelf since mid-June due to a microfracture in his left shin, but he’s thrown several rounds of live batting practice without issue and will now return to live appearances on the farm. The veteran could be an option again for Atlanta’s bullpen within the next week.

Slugger Matt Olson became the first player in the majors this year to reach 50 homers and the franchise record is 51 by Andruw Jones. Olson leads the league in both homers and RBI (127) while batting a career-best .279 with a 1.000 OPS. The Braves are the fourth team in major league history with a 50-HR hitter and another player with 50-plus stolen bases (Ronald Acuna) in a single season.

Olson has eight multihomer games this season, one behind Jones (2005) for the club record. “He’s putting together some kind of great year,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said of Olson.

It’s right-hander and NL Cy Young contender Spencer Strider (16-5) on the mound here. Strider is dealing with an illness but is in line to make his next turn through the rotation. He originally lined up to make a start during Monday’s series-opening doubleheader, but the ailment pushed him back a couple days. Strider was chased in the third inning after allowing six earned runs in his most recent outing last Wednesday versus the Cardinals, but he went 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 34:8 K:BB in 27 innings over his preceding four starts.

Strider leads all of MLB in wins (16), strikeouts (250), and strikeout rate (13.9). He leads the National League in Fielding Independent Pitching, which is a version of ERA that adjusts for only what Strider can control (walks, strikeouts, and homeruns), with a 2.89 mark.

For some reason, he pitches better against the good teams. In 17 games this year against teams with winning records, he has a 2.63 ERA & 2.23 FIP with 168 strikeouts, a 40.8% strikeout rate. Opposing hitters are batting .182/.238/.310 against him. Against teams with losing records, Strider has a 6.11 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 56 innings with 82 strikeouts. He’s allowing opposing hitters to bat .253/.349/.442.

Strider is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 12 innings this year against the Phillies.

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Braves and Phillies met in the 2022 postseason, with Philadelphia winning the NLDS 3-1 to eliminate the defending World Series champions. Philadelphia outscored Atlanta, 24-13, in the series.

Phils star shortstop Trea Turner has reached base in 23 straight games. It is the longest on-base streak by a Phillie since Kyle Schwarber reached in 31 straight games last year and he is the first Phillies shortstop to have an on-base streak of at least 23 games since Jimmy Rollins reached base in 38 straight games from Aug. 23, 2005, to April 5, 2006. Turner is the first Philles player with at least 25 homers and at least 25 stolen bases in a season since Rollins in 2007 (30 HR, 41 SB).

Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott each hit their 30th double of the season for the first time in their respective careers on Monday The Phillies are the only team in the major leagues with four players (also: Turner and Nick Castellanos) to each have 30 or more doubles on the season.

The Phillies currently have seven different players who qualify for the batting title who sport an OPS+ of 107 or greater (league average is 100, so 7% or better than league average). Marsh (131 OPS+) would make it eight, but does not yet qualify for the batting title after missing two weeks with a left knee contusion last month.

It’s lefty Cristopher Sanchez (2-3) on the mound here. Sanchez did not factor into the decision last Friday, allowing four hits and one walk over five scoreless innings against Miami. He struck out four. Sanchez kept the Marlins off the board and left the game in line for the win. However, the Phillies’ bullpen allowed three runs to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Sanchez has now allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 15 outings this season and has a 3.26 in his 14 starts since being called up from Triple-A. The team is monitoring his innings so he may not go too deep into games.

“I’m not concerned, but I’m monitoring it,” manager Rob Thomson said. “I don’t want to put him in harm’s way.” Sanchez hasn’t faced Atlanta this year.

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Expert Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 3


NL East Standings

Updated at September 13th
Braves x 95 50 .655 W1 47-25 48-25
Phillies 79 66 .545 16.0 L1 43-30 36-36
Marlins 74 71 .510 21.0 L2 40-32 34-39
Mets 66 78 .458 28.5 W1 36-34 30-44
Nationals 65 80 .448 30.0 L1 31-43 34-37

W: Wins | L: Losses | %: Winning Percentage | GB: Games Behind | STRK: Current Streak | HOME: Record at Home | AWAY: Record When Away | X: Clinched Playoff Berth


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