NCAAF 2021 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Betting Analysis

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On Saturday night, the now #5 Alabama Crimson Tide hopes to get back on the winning track after a shocking College Football Week 6 loss to the Texas A&M Aggies. The Tide takes on rival Mississippi State in a Bulldogs’ home game. Can Bama prove they deserve another shot at the top four? Or will Mississippi State play well enough for the Bama doubters to continue to crow? Check out NCAAF odds, analysis, and a free pick for Alabama versus Mississippi State. 

NCAA Football – #5 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

#5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Odds & Info

• When: Saturday, Oct. 16 at 7:00 pm ET 
• Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
• TV / Streaming: ESPN / ESPN+ 
• ATS Odds: Alabama -17
• Moneyline Odds: Alabama -855 / Mississippi State +605 
• Over/Under Odds: 57 ½   

Why bet on #5 Alabama versus Mississippi State

Alabama doesn’t have two bad games in a row. The Crimson Tide struggled to beat the Florida Gators. In their next game, they dominated Southern Miss 63-14. More importantly, Nick Saban knows the best way to impress the selection committee after a loss is to dominate your next opponent. Saban will pull out all the stops to prove the Tide deserves another look at the top four. 

Alabama Crimson Tide Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 472.5

• Passing Yards: 310.8

• Rushing Yards: 161.7

• Points Scored: 44.3

• Turnovers: 2

Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 300.8

• Passing Yards: 195.0

• Rushing Yards: 105.8

• Points Scored: 22.0

• Takeaways: 7

Why bet on Mississippi State versus Alabama?

Mississippi State doesn’t have the talent Alabama has. But the Bulldogs get the Crimson Tide on their field. Also, Miss State has won 3-of-5 with the 2 losses being by 2 points to Memphis and 3 points to LSU. Expect the Bulldogs to play a spirited game on Saturday night.  

Mississippi State Bulldogs Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 428.6

• Passing Yards: 372.4

• Rushing Yards: 56.2

• Points Scored: 27.8

• Turnovers: 5

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 318.4

• Passing Yards: 229.0

• Rushing Yards: 89.4

• Points Scored: 25.0

• Takeaways: 6

Relevant Trends for #5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Crimson Tide are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss
• Alabama is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games
• Over is 6-0-1 in Crimson Tide last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record
• Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week
• Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog
• Under is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games after a bye week

#5 Alabama versus Mississippi State 

Mississippi State last played on Oct. 2. Wouldn’t you know it? The Bulldogs beat Texas A&M 26-22. 

But just because Alabama lost to the Aggies, and the Bulldogs beat them, it doesn’t mean Mississippi State covers this spread. The fact of the matter is Alabama is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following an against the spread loss.

Not only that, but Bama knows they allowed a victory to slip from their grasps. The Tide were up 7 points with about 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter. A&M rallied for the win. 

Saban won’t let his team lose focus in two straight. He’ll have his fellas ready to put a beating onto the Bulldogs. Expect Alabama to win this by 24 to 30, or possibly even more points. 

NCAAF Week 7 Pick:  Alabama 

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