No. 14 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State

No. 14 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Written by on November 6, 2020

The biggest game from the Big 12 on Saturday is likely this matchup between No. 14 Oklahoma State and Kansas State as they are two of three schools with just one conference loss. The loser will find it very tough to reach the Big 12 title game. OSU is a solid favorite on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Oklahoma State at Kansas State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, 4 PM ET
  • Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium
  • TV: Fox
  • Stream: Fox Sports 1
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: OSU -12.5 (total 46)

Last Meeting 

In 2019, Oklahoma State beat visiting Kansas State 26-13 when the Cowboys were unranked and Wildcats were No. 24. OSU running back Chuba Hubbard ran for 296 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries – he’s still with the team. Spencer Sanders added 153 yards passing and a touchdown for Oklahoma State. Most of that went to Tylan Wallace, who hauled in eight passes for 145 yards. Both of them are still around. Skylar Thompson was 11 of 23 for 118 yards for the Wildcats.

Saturday’s game marks the 67th meeting between the schools. OSU holds a 40-26 advantage, including an 18-16 edge on games played in Manhattan. The Cowboys have won seven of the past 11 meetings in the series overall.

Why Bet on Oklahoma State? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

The Cowboys (4-1) fell from the ranks of the unbeatens with a 41-34 overtime home loss to Texas last week. Sam Ehlinger threw a 15-yard touchdown pass to Joshua Moore in overtime and Joseph Ossai sealed the victory by sacking Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders. OSU outgained Texas 530 yards to 287, but the Cowboys turned the ball over four times.

Sanders passed for career highs of 400 yards and four touchdowns, but he fumbled twice and threw an interception — turnovers that led to 17 Texas points. Tylan Wallace caught 11 passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns while Chuba Hubbard was held to 72 yards on 25 carries for the Cowboys.

OSU has now held each of its last seven opponents under 300 yards passing, the longest streak since also holding seven straight foes under 300 yards from Nov. 19, 2016 through Sept. 23, 2017. OSU has held its last nine Big 12 opponents under their season scoring average.

The Cowboys have allowed 89 points through the first five games of 2020 (7 vs. Tulsa; 13 vs. West Virginia; 7 vs. Kansas; 21 vs. Iowa State; vs. 41 Texas). That marks the fewest points ever allowed by a Mike Gundy-coached team over a five-game stretch and the fewest by the Cowboys since allowing 69 through the first five games of 2004. The OSU defense has held its opponents scoreless on their opening drives every half this season.

Allowing only 17.8 points per game this season, OSU leads the Big 12 and ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. The Cowboys have held their opponents to a combined total of 13-for-72 on third down attempts for an FBS-best conversion rate of 18.1 percent.

On the year, OSU is one of just four Power Five teams who rank among the FBS top 25 in total offense and total defense, joined by Ohio State, Clemson and West Virginia. Wallace and Hubbard have accounted for 1,186 of OSU’s 2,210 scrimmage yard this season (53.7 percent) and are the FBS active career leaders in receiving yards per game and rushing yards per game, respectively.

Why Bet on Kansas State? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Kansas State (4-2) was knocked off 37-10 at West Virginia last Saturday. K-State came up with two sacks and jumped out to an early lead in Morgantown, before West Virginia used a strong second quarter to put away the Wildcats. The Mountaineers racked up 301 yards through the air on a short-handed K-State secondary. It marked the first game of the season where the Wildcats failed to come up with an interception, while three picks helped the West Virginia defense control the flow of the game.

The K-State defense has been nearly perfect on opponents’ opening drives under head coach Chris Klieman. In the 19 games under Klieman, the Wildcat defense has surrendered only six total points on opponents’ first possession of the game as Navy and Oklahoma mustered field goals last season. West Virginia’s opening drive on Saturday ended with a missed field goal.

True freshman quarterback Will Howard made his third career start, throwing for 184 yards on 19-of-37 aim with a touchdown and three interceptions. He improved to fourth place in school history in passing yards among freshmen at 741, passing Skylar Thompson (689 in 2017).

Another true freshman, running back Deuce Vaughn, continues to impress as he leads the team in rushing and receiving, the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in both categories. Vaughn is also one of only two players in the nation to eclipse 300 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards in 2020, joining Clemson running back Travis Etienne.

Kansas State converted on its lone red zone chance in the loss. Dating back to last season, the Wildcats have now come away with points on 60-straight red zone trips. The streak is the longest by the Wildcats in the Big 12 era.

Games between the Wildcats and Oklahoma State have been hotly contested as of late with eight of the last 13 games being decided by a touchdown or less.

Game Trends

  • Cowboys are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
  • Cowboys are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
  • Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
  • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
  • Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
  • Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Expert College Football Prediction

Oklahoma State 29, Kansas State 25


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