NCAAF 2021 SMU Mustangs at #5 Cincinnati Betting Analysis

NCAAF 2021 SMU Mustangs at #5 Cincinnati Betting Analysis

On Saturday, Nov. 20, the Cincinnati Bearcats continue their quest for a spot in the top four on the College Football Rankings when they host the SMU Mustangs. Cincinnati, ranked fifth on the CFP Rankings, must win every game convincingly to have any shot at the National Championship. 2-loss SMU has a great offense, though. Will Cincinnati keep their undefeated record intact with a win and cover? Or will the Mustangs prove the Bearcats aren’t close to being one of the top four best teams in the country? Keep reading for College Football odds, analysis, and a free pick for SMU at Cincinnati.  

NCAA Football – SMU Mustangs vs #5 Cincinnati Bearcats

NCAAF Week 12 Betting: SMU at #5 Cincinnati Game Odds & Info

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 20 at 3:30 pm ET 
  • Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
  • TV / Streaming: ESPN / ESPN+ 
  • ATS Odds: Cincinnati -11 ½ 
  • Over/Under Odds: 65  

Why bet on SMU versus Cincinnati?

The Southern Methodist Mustangs average 41.6 points. Not only does SMU average more points each game than Cincinnati, but the Mustangs rank sixth in the nation in points scored per contest. SMU’s offense amasses an average of 499.9 yards per game, which also ranks sixth. Not only that, but the Mustangs have turned the ball over just 5 times this season. 

SMU Mustangs Offensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 499.9
  • Passing Yards: 329.0
  • Rushing Yards: 170.9
  • Points Scored: 41.6
  • Turnovers: 5

SMU Mustangs Defensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 405.7
  • Passing Yards: 279.8
  • Rushing Yards: 125.9
  • Points Scored: 25.9
  • Takeaways: 7

Why bet on Cincinnati versus SMU?

Cincinnati is one of those football teams that only steps it up against decent competition. The reason the undefeated Bearcats have gone 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 is because they’ve played against Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, and USF. Southern Methodist is 8-2. So we should expect Cincinnati to be more focused versus the Mustangs than they were in their previous 4 games. 

Cincinnati Bearcats Offensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 418.3
  • Passing Yards: 244.7
  • Rushing Yards: 173.6
  • Points Scored: 39.2
  • Turnovers: 9

Cincinnati Bearcats Defensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 314.7
  • Passing Yards: 163.3
  • Rushing Yards: 151.4
  • Points Scored: 16.2
  • Takeaways: 16

Relevant Trends for SMU Mustangs versus #5 Cincinnati Bearcats

  • Mustangs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games
  • SMU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog
  • Over is 5-2 ATS in the Mustangs last 7 games as an underdog
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
  • Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games
  • Under is 14-6 in Cincinnati’s last 20 games following an ATS loss

SMU at #5 Cincinnati Final Betting Prediction

Southern Methodist is a scoring machine. But Tanner Mordecai and the Mustangs offense could be up against it versus the Bearcats defense.

The problem Mordecai and SMU will have on Saturday is that the Mustangs are a pass first team. Cincinnati’s defense is terrific at stopping passing attacks.

So unless SMU gets their rushing attack going, a tough proposition, Cincinnati should keep SMU below their points average. 

SMU’s defense gave up 44 to Houston and 28 to both UCF and Memphis. On offense, the Bearcats run and throw equally well, which means there’s a good chance Cincinnati scores over 40 in this. 

SMU can keep up. The chances of them doing so aren’t great because Southern Methodist almost never covers in road games. Laying 11 ½ is always tough. Cincinnati against the spread is the play. 

NCAAF Week 12 Pick:  Cincinnati Bearcats    

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