Heading into the final two weeks before the Belmont Stakes, it’s become obvious that horseplayers will settle on two favorites. Both Essential Quality and Rombauer are getting more play than any of the other horses. Check out current odds on MyBookie as well as an odds analysis for the 2021 Belmont Stakes.
Belmont Stakes Odds: Essential Quality and Rombauer Co-Favorites
2021 Belmont Stakes
- When: Saturday, June 5
- Where: Belmont Park, Elmont, NY
2021 Belmont Stakes Odds
- Essential Quality +250
- Rombauer +250
- Hot Rod Charlie +400
- Midnight Bourbon +450
- Rock Your World +700
- Keepmeinmind +1100
- Known Agenda +700
- Promise Keeper +1400
- Weyburn +1800
- Rebel’s Romance +1600
- Brooklyn Strong +4000
- France Go de Ina +3000
Why do Essential Quality and Rombauer offer the same odds?
Essential Quality may have run the best race in the Derby. Rombauer easily won the Preakness. Those are the main reasons Quality and Rombauer are offering favorite’s odds.
Let’s dissect Essential Qualities victory. The Brad Cox trained runner had to go wide around both turns. Although going wide doesn’t always matter, in the Derby it did. Why?
The two-year-old champion chased a soft-pace. Medina Spirit got away with a ridiculously slow second-quarter in close to 25 seconds. So not only did Essential Quality have to run wide around both turns, but he also had to try and rally into a slow pace.
Most horseplayers believe Essential Quality ran an extra 68-feet. The fact he finished fourth by a length with the highest Beyer speed figure he’s ever run speaks volumes.
Rombauer blasted his opponents in the Preakness Stakes. He didn’t just win. The Mike McCarthy trained runner dominated. Rombauer’s turn of foot is electric. If he can get the distance, he should have a great shot to win the third and final jewel.
Known Agenda’s and Rock Your World’s odds drop
The New York Racing Association banned Baffert from running horses at any of their tracks. Bob Baffert horses Medina Spirit and Concert Tour won’t run in the Belmont Stakes.
Because the Baffert runners won’t go, odds on a couple of pre-Kentucky Derby favorites, John Sadler trained Rock Your World and Florida Derby winner Known Agenda, have fallen. Both are down to +700.
Of the pair, Rock Your World appears to have the best shot to win the Belmont. The Santa Anita Derby winner got squeezed back at the start of the Kentucky Derby. He had no shot after that.
Known Agenda didn’t run well in the Derby. He may not be ready to navigate 1 ½ miles. We shall see. But if we had to pick a winner between the pair a couple of weeks out, Rock Your World gets the nod over Known Agenda.
Promise Keeper and Rebel’s Romance getting looks
Todd Pletcher decided to save Malathaat for the big-pursed races at Saratoga. Pletcher could still saddle a couple of Belmont Stakes contenders. One of those contenders may be Promise Keeper.
On MyBookie, the Peter Pan winner offers +1400 odds. On race day, the Pletcher runner could offer odds less than +1000. Todd hasn’t decided if Promise Keeper will run in the Belmont. If he does, he’s got a shot to win.
Sired by Constitution and from a Curlin broodmare, Promise Keeper should excel at the Belmont distance. So should UAE Derby winner Rebel’s Romance.
The Godolphin owned runner shipped to Belmont about three weeks ago. He should be well acclimated while trainer Charles Appleby is one of the best in the world. Romance is bred to be a champion. So if he shows up with his best race, he could pull off a major Belmont Stakes upset.