Brewers at Giants MLB Spread & Betting Analysis.

Brewers at Giants MLB Spread & Betting Analysis

Written by on July 27, 2018

Coming off his shortest outing of the season, San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner takes the hill on Friday against Chase Anderson and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Giants are home favorites on the MyBookie sportsbook odds because they almost always are when MadBum is pitching, but Brewers at Giants 2.0 it’s not going to be an easy one.

How to Bet Brewers at Giants MLB Spread & Game Info

  • When: Friday, 10:15 PM ET
  • Where: AT&T Park, San Francisco
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Chase Anderson/Madison Bumgarner
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Stream:
  • Radio: TuneIn
  • MLB Spread: Giants -152, Brewers +142 (7.5)

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Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers already have one of the best bullpens in the majors but it just got better as on Thursday the team acquired right-handed reliever Joakim Soria from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for two players and cash considerations. It’s the second straight year that Brewers have acquired a late-inning reliever from the White Sox. Last year, Milwaukee picked up another veteran right-hander with a resurgent slider, Anthony Swarzak. He delivered a 1.03 WHIP in 29 appearances for Milwaukee. It didn’t result in a playoff spot, however. Soria, 34, has a 2.56 ERA, 16 saves, 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a .230 opponents’ average in 40 relief appearances this season, his first with the White Sox. That’s his highest strikeout rate since 2009 with the Royals. The White Sox had acquired the veteran from Kansas City as part of a three-team trade in January. Soria will work as a set-up man with the Brewers. “This is the price of poker,” Brewers general manager David Stearns said of giving up two solid prospects. “We view Soria as one of the better available arms on the market this year, and he fits our team well.” Manager Craig Counsell’s late-inning relief options now begin with closer 2017 All-Star Corey Knebel, 2018 All-Stars Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress and now Soria. In addition, Matt Albers (shoulder) will rejoin the Brewers this weekend in San Francisco. Albers struck out three batters over 1 2/3 scoreless innings in his second rehab appearance Tuesday with Triple-A Colorado Springs. The 35-year-old setup man has been out since June 12. It’s Chase Anderson (6-7, 3.81) on the hill for Milwaukee. Anderson didn’t factor into the decision in Saturday’s 4-2 win over the Dodgers, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks over four-plus innings while striking out six. The right-hander needed 104 pitches (68 strikes) to record only 12 outs before exiting with the bases loaded and nobody out in the fifth inning, and the Brewers down 2-1. Corbin Burnes was able to stamp out the rally to keep Anderson’s line from looking even worse, and Milwaukee’s bats eventually got him off the hook for the loss. Spacious AT&T Park should suit Anderson, a fly-ball pitcher who has a 2.66 ERA in his nine starts so far this season away from Miller Park. Compare that to a 4.81 ERA in 11 starts at home.

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Why Bet on San Francisco?

The Giants could be short-handed for a bit as first baseman Brandon Belt left Wednesday’s game against the Mariners with a hyperextended left knee. Belt picked up the injury when he beat out an infield single in the top of the seventh. Giants manager Bruce Bochy told reporters after the game that Belt will be out for the next two-to-three days at a minimum, but the medical staff will not know for certain until diagnostic tests were done in San Francisco on Thursday. Belt is hitting .278 with 14 homers and 43 RBIs. There’s also some good news as third baseman Evan Longoria is likely to be activated from the DL this weekend. Longoria (fractured hand) has been out since June 16. Longoria’s presence hasn’t been particularly missed, though. In 268 plate appearances before suffering an injury, Longoria provided 0.3 WAR, per Fangraphs. In 165 plate appearances, everyone else at third base has given the Giants 0.6 WAR. On the year, Longoria is slashing .225/.256/.367 against righties, for an OPS of .623. Brewers at Giants is one of the best matches for Friday Night. That’s not good. GM Bobby Evans said he is hoping the return of Longoria will help San Francisco’s defect against lefty pitching. Longoria has been much better vs. southpaws. It’s lefty Madison Bumgarner here. The Giants ace has a knack for following a poor performance with an outstanding one. Bumgarner (3-3, 3.19) allowed three earned runs on two hits and six walks while striking out five across four innings Saturday against the Athletics. He did not factor into the decision. Bumgarner threw just 47 of his 92 pitches for a strike, leading to his shortest outing of the season. He has exhibited unusually poor control throughout his nine starts and has surrendered a career-worst 3.9 BB/9 as a result. There were some rumors that the Giants were shopping MadBum but Giants GM Bobby Evans recently shot that down. Evans said he would not dismiss out of hand trading from his bullpen since lefties Will Smith and Tony Watson would draw particularly strong interest. But he added, “It would be a challenge to give up pieces of the bullpen since that has been the Steady Eddie part of our club.”

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Brewers are 6-14 in Anderson’s last 20 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
  • Brewers are 2-5 in Anderson’s last 7 Friday starts
  • Giants are 4-1 in Bumgarner’s last 5 home starts vs. Brewers
  • Milwaukee is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
  • Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 8 games on the road
  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games

Expert MLB Betting Prediction Brewers at Giants

Take the Giants and under the total.