Cardinals vs. Marlins MLB Odds Today, betting analysis, and score prediction considering Miami's losing streak

Cardinals vs. Marlins MLB Odds Today, betting analysis, and score prediction considering Miami’s losing streak

The worst team in baseball thus far without question has been the 0-7 Miami Marlins, and they are solid underdogs on the MLB odds in St. Louis on Thursday afternoon as the Cardinals play their home opener

MLB Expert Analysis Miami vs St. Louis | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 1 2024 Season


How to Bet Marlins at Cardinals MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 4:15 PM ET
Where: Busch Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): Ryan Weathers/Lance Lynn
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio:
Opening MLB Lines: Cardinals -145, Marlins +125 (total 5)


Why Bet on Miami Marlins?

I’m supposed to give you a reason to bet the Marlins and I’m not sure I can do that right now with the team off to an embarrassing 0-7 start – getting swept at home four games last week by Pittsburgh, which is better than expected, and then three this week by the Angels – who are not a good team at all yet won each game by multiple runs, capped by a 10-2 rout on Wednesday.

Marlins Last 5
vs Angels – L 10-2
vs Angels – L 3-1
vs Angels – L 7-4
vs Pirates – L 9-7 F/10
vs Pirates – L 9-3

During the first winless homestand of at least seven games in franchise history, the Marlins trailed at the end of 36 of 67 innings (54 percent). When the Marlins held a rare lead, they lost it, on Opening Day, Sunday and Monday. Over those latter two games early this week, the Marlins were the fourth team since 1974 to take at least a four-run lead in the first inning of consecutive games only to drop both.

The Marlins are the first team ever to make the postseason one year and start 0-7 the next. Previously, the longest winless streak to start the year in franchise history was four (1995 and 2001), so they are on the verge of doubling that. The MLB record for the longest losing streak to start a season is 21 (1988 Orioles) and the longest in the NL is 14 (1997 Cubs).

“The season feels long already in that clubhouse because it’s seven games and no wins,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said. “It is really early, however, these games do count. We’ve got to figure it out if we want to get where we want to get to.”

Jazz Chisholm Jr. went 0-for-3 with a strikeout in Wednesday’s loss as Chisholm and the rest of Miami’s lineup managed just four hits. The 26-year-old Chisolm is an electric player when right but is batting an ice-cold .130 (3-for-23) with one homer and five RBI.

Miami turns to lefty Ryan Weathers (0-1, 6.75 ERA) on Thursday. He allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out five over four innings to take the loss to the Pirates on Saturday. Weathers threw 94 pitches in total and looked nothing like the guy this spring who had a 3.00 ERA and 21:4 K:BB over 18 innings. However, last year Weathers was horrific, going 1-8 with a 6.55 ERA (42 ER/57.2 IP) in 12 MLB starts (15 appearances) split with San Diego and Miami. He was 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA (11 ER/13.0 IP) in 2 starts (3 appearances) with the Marlins.

As this is the Marlins’ first road game of the year, they finished the 2023 campaign with a 38-43 record on the road, and went 3-3 on the final road trip of the regular season that saw the Marlins clinch a postseason spot at Pittsburgh on Sept. 30, 2023. Miami is 86-132 all-time vs. St. Louis and 21-32 at the new Busch Stadium.

Bet Marlins to Win
MLB Daily Lines

Week 1 MLB Vegas Lines Odds Subject to Change SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL
Miami +0.5 +125 O 5
St. Louis -0.5 -145 U 5
MLB First 5 Inning Lines | AL Divisional Odds | NL Divisional Odds

Why Bet on St. Louis Cardinals?

The Cardinals had a very tough road trip to the Dodgers and Padres to open the season, so a 3-4 record isn’t half-bad. Two regulars were out of the starting lineup in Wednesday’s defeat in San Diego in outfielder Alec Burleson and NL Rookie of the Year candidate and shortstop Masyn Winn.

Cardinals Last 5
@ Padres – L 3-2
@ Padres – W 5-2
@ Padres – W 6-2 F/10
@ Dodgers – L 5-4
@ Dodgers – W 6-5 F/10

Burleson still will play mostly everyday for the early part of the season until the Cardinals get two of Lars Nootbaar (rib), Dylan Carlson (shoulder) and Tommy Edman (wrist) back from the injured list. Winn is 5-for-16 with one RBI and one stolen base in his first five games this season.

Also Wednesday, second baseman Brendan Donovan was forced to leave when he took a 95-mph sinker off his elbow during the top of the eighth inning. He remained in the game to run the bases but was replaced at second base by Mike Siani before the bottom half of the frame. Donovan may need Thursday off. He’s hitting .292 with a homer and six RBIs.

Right-hander Lance Lynn (0-0, 0.00) takes the hill Thursday. This is his second stint with the team as he was signed to a one-year, $10 million free-agent deal last November with a club option. The 36-year-old was drafted by the Cardinals and spent his first six major-league seasons in St. Louis. Lynn finished the 2023 season with a 5.73 ERA over 32 starts with the White Sox and Dodgers and yielded a whopping 44 home runs, but he also had a 191:67 K:BB over 183.2 frames.

Lynn made his Cardinals re-debut last Saturday and didn’t factor into the decision in an extra-inning win over the Dodgers, finishing with five strikeouts while allowing four hits and one walk over four scoreless frames. Lynn looked like he could be in for a long night when Los Angeles began the game by lacing three straight singles off him, but the veteran bounced back by striking out Will Smith, Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez to escape the jam.

The Dodgers put two more runners on base with one out in the second frame, but Lynn again got outs under pressure to emerge unscathed. The right-hander retired the final eight batters he faced but had his momentum stopped by a rain delay, and he didn’t return to the mound after the interruption, having already thrown 70 pitches.

Lynn makes his 11th career appearance and ninth start against the Marlins and is riding a three-game losing skid against them in his last three starts (July 4, 2017-present). Lynn’s only career save has come against the Marlins, pitching a scoreless 9th inning of a 3-2 win in Miami on Aug. 5, 2011. Overall, Lynn is 4-3 with a 5.48 ERA in 46.0 innings vs. Miami.

Thursday will mark the first time the Cardinals have hosted the Marlins in St. Louis for a home opener and represents the final National League franchise to visit Busch Stadium for the club’s home openers.

Bet Cardinals to Win
MLB Daily Lines


Cardinals vs. Marlins Expert Prediction

Cardinals 5, Marlins 3


MLB Conferences Winners

American League Odds

New York Yankees +375
Houston Astros +375
Blatimore Orioles +525
Texas Rangers +600
Seattle Mariners +1000
Toronto Blue Jays +1000
Minnesota Twins +1100
Tampa Bay Rays +1500
Cleveland Guardians +2000
Boston Red Sox +2000
Detroit Tigers +2500
Los Angeles Angels +6500
Kansas City Royals +7000
Chicago White Sox +15000
Oakland Athletics +25000
AL Pennant Odds

National League Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers +170
Atlanta Braves +240
Philadelphia Phillies +800
St. Louis Cardinals +1600
Arizona Diamondbacks +1600
Chicago Cubs +1700
Cincinnati Reds +2500
San Francisco Giants +2500
San Diego Padres +2500
New York Mets +3000
Milwaukee Brewers +3500
Pittsburgh Pirates +6000
Miami Marlins +7000
Washington Nationals +15000
Colorado Rockies +25000
NL Pennant Odds

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2023 Cardinals vs. Marlins Odds

Thursday is July 6 and who would have guessed that the Miami Marlins would have by far a better record than the St. Louis Cardinals at this point in the 2023 season? The Marlins are favored on the MLB odds in their home series finale Thursday behind sensational rookie Eury Perez.


Cardinals vs. Marlins | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis


How to Bet St. Louis at Miami MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: loanDepot Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jack Flaherty/Eury Perez
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream/gameday audio: Fox Sports Go
Opening MLB Lines: Marlins -125, Cardinals +105 (total 8)


Why Bet on St. Louis?

St. Louis has spent 71 of 98 days in last place on this season’s MLB schedule (April 26-May 19 & May 29-present). This season is the Cardinals’ slowest start since 1990.

“We always hear buy or sell, those are two,” GM John Mozeliak said this week of the trade deadline and what the disappointing team might do. “There’s also the hold pat, do nothing (route). The fourth is where there could be some deals made that can help now but can also help in the future, or maybe more of a reshuffle in some places where we don’t feel like we’re getting enough playing time for someone. We’re not embedded to any of those yet. We’ll see where we are at some point and make some decisions.”

Before Wednesday’s game, the Cards put starting pitcher Adam Wainwright and catcher Andrew Knizner on the injured list. Wainwright decided to return for one more year but probably shouldn’t have as he has been terrible and remains two wins shy of 200 career. Knizner is dealing with a groin injury and generally played about three games per week as the No. 2 catcher behind Willson Contreras, who also plays DH.

Ivan Herrera was called up to serve as the No. 2 catcher. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in a big league game this season but has shined with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds slashing .308/.432/.557 to go along with eight home runs and 44 RBIs across 50 games.

It’s Jack Flaherty (5-5) on the mound Thursday. Flaherty (5-5) earned the win Saturday, allowing four hits and two walks over six scoreless innings against the Yankees. He struck out four. Flaherty got himself back on track after allowing six runs in each of his last two starts. The right-hander fanned only four batters but produced 11 swinging strikes en route to his fifth win of the season. Flaherty has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts and was able to lower his ERA from 4.95 to 4.60.

Overall, it’s been a brutal year for Flaherty, especially when you look back at the spring training confluence of his good health, expectations and pitching in a contract year. In 11 of his starts this season, he’s allowed three or fewer runs. But in the other five he has allowed run totals of 10, six, six, four and four. He also leads the league with 46 walks. Flaherty is likely to be traded by the end of the month, although he wouldn’t bring back much in return right now as a pending free agent.

Flaherty has started three times career vs. the Marlins and is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA.


Why Bet on Miami?

Miami’s 23 comeback wins are tied for the sixth-most in MLB. It marks the Marlins’ most comeback wins prior to the All-Star break since 2012, when they had 25. The Marlins have recorded 19 hits in a game three times this season, tied with Philadelphia for the most in the majors. Their 34 games of 10+ hits is tied with St. Louis for 2nd in the NL, behind only Atlanta (38).

Miami had to return All-Star infielder Jazz Chisholm to the injured list earlier this week with a mild oblique strain. In his six games since being activated from the turf toe injury on June 26, Chisholm hit .348 with two homers. By placing Chisholm on the IL, the Marlins hope to prevent even more serious injuries from developing so that their star will be ready for the second half, and possibly the postseason.

It’s rookie right-hander Eury Perez (5-2) on the mound. Perez took the loss Saturday, coughing up six runs on seven hits in just one-third of an inning as the Marlins fell 7-0 to Atlanta. His season ERA went from 1.34 to 2.47. MLB’s hottest offense provided some harsh lessons for the 20-year-old righty, as Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies led off the game with back-to-back solo shots, and all told five of the seven hits off Perez went for extra bases. He became the second pitcher in franchise history to allow six-plus earned runs and get one or fewer outs in a start, joining Carl Pavano (June, 27, 2003).

“They’re great hitters, really good batters,” Pérez said via interpreter Luis Dorante Jr. “They were practically ready for every pitch that I had for them. You’ve got to understand that there’s also going to be bad days like today, and then you’ve got to get better in that situation and get ready for that next outing.”

The 20-year-old Pérez had gotten off to one of the best starts to a Major League career in the history of the game, posting a 1.34 ERA — fifth lowest in the Expansion Era (since 1961) through nine starts. Pérez also entered with 21 consecutive scoreless innings — the longest active streak in MLB.

He is one of just five pitchers to debut before their 21st birthday to have an ERA of 2.50 or lower through his first 10 starts. Among NL rookie pitchers this season (min. 42.0 IP), Perez owns the second-lowest ERA (2.47) and ranks second in wins (5), behind NYM’s Kodai Senga (6).

But another poor outing Thursday might make it easier for the Marlins to send Perez back down to the minors and manage his workload.


Game Trends

  • Cardinals are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. National League East.
  • Cardinals are 4-13 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Marlins are 17-5 in their last 22 home games.
  • Marlins are 15-3 in their last 18 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.

Expert Prediction

Marlins 4, Cardinals 3


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