Cardinals vs. Nationals: MLB Betting Predictions

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Monday is the Juneteenth holiday in the United States and there is one MLB matinee for those lucky enough to be off from work: Massively disappointing St. Louis opens a series at rebuilding Washington.

Cardinals vs. Nationals | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet St. Louis at Washington MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 4:05 PM ET
Where: Nationals Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jack Flaherty/Josiah Gray
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Cardinals -155, Nationals +135 (total 9)

Why Bet on St. Louis?

Could the Cardinals fire second-year manager Oliver Marmol? It’s a very stable franchise so there will be no rush to judgement even though the team is so bad. The Cards already have had three managers since the 2018 All-Star break. It also certainly helps that the Cardinals’ star players have strongly expressed their support towards Marmol, instead blaming themselves. So we might see a change after this season but not during it.

Outfielder Lars Nootbaar could return for Monday’s series opener against the Nationals. Nootbaar started a minor league rehab assignment last week and was to be re-evaluated following Sunday’s game at Triple-A Memphis. He’s been out since late May due to a lower back contusion.

Infielder Jordan Walker has joined Albert Pujols (three in 2001) and Rogers Hornsby (two in 1916) as the third Cardinal age 21 or younger with multiple double-digit game hitting streaks in the same season. Walker has hit safely in 28-of-33 games with a plate appearance this season, with his 36 career hits coming off 35 different pitchers from all 11 opponents he’s played against.

It’s right-hander Jack Flaherty on the hill Monday. Flaherty (3-5) took the loss last Tuesday as the Cardinals were routed 11-3 by the Giants, coughing up six runs on 10 hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out three. The right-hander extended his streak of starts without serving up a homer to six, but keeping the ball in the park didn’t do him much good as the Giants had eight singles and two doubles off him. Flaherty had a 1.50 ERA and 33:13 K:BB in 30 innings over his previous five outings.

This will be Flaherty’s 5th career start vs. the Nationals and his 3rd regular season at Nationals Park. He made a start in Game 3 of the 2019 NLCS and lost 8-1 opposing Stephen Strasburg, allowing four runs over 5.0 innings. Flaherty has two wins against the Nationals, receiving 11 and 14 runs of support, both during the 2021 season over a period of six days. His 2.14 ERA is 4th-lowest among active pitchers vs. Washington of those with 4 GS/20 IP behind Brandon Woodruff, 0.85, Zack Greinke 1.27 and Tommy Milone 1.76.

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Why Bet on Washington?

Nats starting third baseman Jeimer Candelario was scratched from the starting lineup for Sunday’s game against the Marlins due to right thumb soreness but it’s nothing serious and he’s day-to-day. Candelario leads National League third basemen in wins above replacement (2.2) and is tied for third with three defensive runs saved. His 21 doubles are the most among NL third basemen and are second in the NL overall. Over the last 28 games, Candelario is hitting .320/.417/.592 with 12 doubles, two triples, four homers, 16 RBI, 13 walks and 18 runs scored.

Outfielder Lane Thomas is quietly having a fine season. He ranks in the National League in extra-base hits (T2nd, 25), hits (T4th, 52), doubles (T5th, 13) and slugging percentage (11th, .576) since May 1. Overall, he ranks tied for seventh in the National League in hits (77) and ninth in runs scored (46). All of his team-leading 10 home runs have come since May 1. On defense, Thomas has recorded six outfield assists, tied for the most among National League outfielders.

Joey Meneses ranks in the National League in average with runners in scoring position (3rd, .441), hits (6th, 79) and batting average (7th, .297). Meneses is hitting .522 (24-for-46) against right-handed pitchers with runners in scoring position, the best mark in Major League Baseball ahead of Miami’s Luis Arraez (.447).

It’s young right-hander Josiah Gray (4-5, 3.19) on the mound. Gray pitched fairly well in a no-decision against the Astros last Wednesday, allowing four runs on six hits over his seven frames. Gray struck out five batters and didn’t issue a base on balls. He generated 11 swings and misses on 95 pitches in the contest, registering a CSW of 32 percent.

Gray threw a sweeper 26 times against the Astros, throwing 18 strikes with the pitch and generating four swinging strikes. The pitch is a new one for the right-hander, but it’s quickly progressed from bullpen experiment to effective in-game weapon. Gray had only thrown four total sweepers coming into Wednesday’s start and instead had used four other pitches — four-seam fastball, slider, curve and cutter — more than 17 percent of the time this season while also mixing in an occasional sinker (seven percent).

While Gray’s swinging strike rate remains basically unchanged from last year at 11.4 percent, he’s generating more groundballs than ever before (42.2 percent) and has cut more than seven points off his HR/FB% (career-low 11.4 percent). He’s showing why he was once a very touted prospect.

Gray is 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA in 8.1 career innings vs. the Cardinals.

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