Diamondbacks vs Cardinals MLB Spread & Prediction

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals MLB Spread & Prediction

Written by on July 12, 2019

This past offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks traded one of the best players in franchise history, Paul Goldschmidt, to the St. Louis Cardinals. On Friday night in St. Louis, Goldschmidt faces his former team for the first time. The Cardinals will be favored on the MLB Betting Lines.

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Why Bet on Arizona?

The Diamondbacks have outscored their opponents by 53 runs, the fourth-best mark in the league. Such a run differential works out to an expected record five games better than their actual record (46-45). Their offense, though inconsistent, is fourth in the league in runs scored. The Diamondbacks have played competitively on the road but they are under .500 at home.

The Snakes are without starting outfielder David Peralta. He is on the injured list for the second time this season with AC joint inflammation in his right shoulder, but he is expected to return before the July 31 trade deadline and could be dealt. The 31-year-old has a .828 OPS in 324 plate appearances this season, and he slugged a career-high 30 home runs in 2018.

Ketel Marte (109) and Eduardo Escobar (100) were the fifth D-backs teammates with 100+ hits before the break. Marte played in Tuesday’s All-Star Game. Escobar was the only NL player in the Top 7 in RBI to not make the All-Star Team (Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman.

The D-backs’ 89.3 stolen base pct. is the best in franchise history, ahead of 2007’s 82.0, while the 6 caught stealing are the fewest, ahead of 2008’s 23. Jarrod Dyson’s 20 stolen bases lead the NL. His 7 seasons of 20+ stolen bases since 2012 lead the Majors.

Arizona manager Torey Lovullo hasn’t named his starting pitcher for Friday yet. Could be ace Zack Greinke, who was named an All-Star but asked out of the game to deal with a personal matter. Greinke hurled seven scoreless innings last Friday with nine strikeouts in a victory over the Rockies. The right-hander has allowed no runs in four of his last six appearances. He’s 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA.

Lefty Robbie Ray is also an option. Ray (6-6) earned the win last Saturday, allowing one run on two hits and five walks over six innings. He struck out eight in the 4-2 win over the Rockies. Ray was a bit wild, as Saturday marked the fourth time he’s issued five free passes in a game this year. It still was one of the better starts of the year for the 27-year-old. He lowered his ERA to 3.96 with the one-run performance, and he takes a 1.35 WHIP and 137:54 K:BB into his next outing.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 5.10
  • Hits: 9.15
  • Walks: 3.03
  • Strike Outs: 8.46
  • Runs: 4.52
  • Hits: 8.55
  • Walks: 3.20
  • Strike Outs: 8.69

Why Bet on St. Louis?

The Cards (44-44) are at .500 coming out of the break for the third time in franchise history. They were last an even .500 at the All-Star break in 2001 (43-43) and also in 1994 (42-42). The 2001 team made the playoffs. The Cardinals were 48-46 at the break last season.

The Cards are likely to activate third baseman Matt Carpenter off the injured list, where he has been with a lower-back strain. After batting .170 last September, he hit .193 in April, .237 in May and .208 in June before landing on the injured list with a sore back. That’s an unsettling long-term trend. Unlike in 2018, Carpenter has not overcome his slow start with a summer power surge. He hit just two homers in his last 81 at-bats before going on the IL. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna remains on the IL with a fractured finger.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals is going to be a close one.

Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong is error-less in his last 28 games since June 4 and has just one miscue in his last 49 games since May 9. For the season, DeJong is leading all MLB shortstops with his .992 fielding pct., making just three errors.

Adam Wainwright (5-7) will start the Cardinals’ second half looking to build off his five-inning, two-run day against Seattle on July 3. Wainwright worked around a few walks and a single to hold the Mariners scoreless through four until Dylan Moore launched a solo homer in the fifth inning. The 37-year-old was then pulled in the sixth after allowing a leadoff single to Domingo Santana, who eventually scored on a wild pitch from reliever Tyler Webb. Wainwright, who was pitching at T-Mobile Park for the first time in his 14-year career, threw just 63 of 101 pitches for strikes. The right-hander now owns a 4.31 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 82:36 K:BB over 16 starts. After a difficult May (1-3, 6.33 ERA in five starts), he has allowed three runs or fewer during his last five starts.

Wainwright’s eight wins against Arizona are the most for any Cardinal in franchise history and 6th among active MLB pitchers. He has won seven of his last 10 starts vs. the Diamondbacks, dating back to 2008. Working on six days rest, Wainwright threw a near perfect game on May 20, 2014, vs. Arizona at Busch Stadium, facing just one over the minimum.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 4.47
  • Hits: 8.25
  • Walks: 3.34
  • Strike Outs: 8.43
  • Runs: 4.44
  • Hits: 8.05
  • Walks: 3.36
  • Strike Outs: 8.65

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Diamondbacks vs Cardinals MLB Betting Trends

  • Under is 8-1 in Wainwright’s last 9 starts vs. Diamondbacks
  • Diamondbacks are 18-37 in the last 55 meetings in St. Louis
  • Diamondbacks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games played in July
  • Cardinals are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the National League
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in Wainwright’s last 7 home starts vs. Diamondbacks
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of St. Louis’ last 17 games at home

Expert Final Score Prediction for Diamondbacks vs Cardinals

Arizona Diamondbacks 4 – St. Louis Cardinals 5