Mets vs. Phillies: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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The New York Mets can play spoiler this weekend when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies for a four-game series as the Mets won’t be playing in the postseason but they could help prevent the Phillies from doing so as well, although that’s unlikely. The Phils are favored on the MLB odds for Thursday’s opener.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis MyBookie Sportsbook

MLB Week 24: Monday September 18 – Sunday September 24, 2023

How to Bet New York at Philadelphia MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 7:15 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): David Peterson/Ranger Suarez
TV: MLB Extra Innings, FOX
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -165, Mets +145 (total 9)

Why Bet on New York?

New York is in a stretch of 17 straight games without an off-day and this is the team’s final road series of the year.

Injured Mets outfielder Starling Marte (groin) is scheduled to play a pair of rehab games Saturday and Sunday with Triple-A Syracuse. If all goes well in those two games, Marte should be cleared to return to the Mets’ active roster for their final homestand, which begins next Tuesday. Out since early August due to a right groin strain, the veteran outfielder is currently getting simulated reps in Florida.

The Mets announced earlier this week that 2022 All-Star closer Edwin Diza Diaz (knee) won’t be activated from the 60-day injured list this season. A return for the final week of the regular season or the postseason might have been in play for Diaz if the Mets were in playoff contention. Diaz had surgery in March to repair a torn patellar tendon suffered during the World Baseball Classic.

The Mets feature eight players who have recorded at least 10 home runs this year. The team record is 10 players with 10 or more home runs, done in 2017. New York is just shy of 200 homers and could get there Thursday. Four teams in franchise history have cracked 200+ home runs in a single year: 2019 (242), 2017 (224), 2016 (218) and 2006 (200).

New York leads the major leagues with a 90.3% success rate in stolen bases this season. It’s the highest success rate in franchise history if it stands. The previous high was 82.3% which was accomplished in 2004.

It’s lefty David Peterson on the mound. Peterson (3-8) did not factor into the decision last Friday, allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits and two walks over 5.2 innings against the Reds. He struck out 10. The 10 strikeouts matched a career high for Peterson, who has reached that total on three other occasions. A two-run homer by Spencer Steer in the sixth inning was Peterson’s ultimate undoing as he finished one out shy of a quality start. He lowered his season ERA to 5.52 and has 113 strikeouts in 100 innings.

Peterson is 1-2 with a 4.83 ERA in 31.2 career innings against the Phillies. He last faced them on August 20, 2022 at Citizens Bank Park. He allowed three runs over 4.2 innings and struck out six batters.

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MyBookie Betting Lines for the Games

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies beat the Braves 6-5 in 10 innings on Wednesday in Atlanta to inch closer to clinching a wild card spot. Barring an epic collapse, they will get one and it could be the top spot in the NL. Nick Castellanos homered twice and drove in three runs. Castellanos got the scoring going with a solo shot off Bryce Elder in the second inning and then added on a two-run shot in the fourth inning for good measure. He later preserved a tie in the ninth by throwing out Luke Williams at home after making what seemed to be a questionable decision to catch Orlando Arcia’s foul fly to right. He’s now up to 27 home runs and 99 RBI on the season while posting a .272/.310/.470 slash line.

Matt Strahm earned his second save of the season by closing down the Phillies’ extra inning win. Craig Kimbrel threw a scoreless ninth inning to get the game to extra innings and then Strahm came in and closed it down. He did allow the ghost runner to score on a sac fly, but the left-hander didn’t allow a hit in the inning and now carries a 3.20 ERA into the final week of the season. That could mean neither Strahm nor Kimbrel is available Thursday.

Slugger Kyle Schwarber has 99 RBI and with his next will be the first player in baseball history to score a 100 runs, knock in that many, hit more than 40 homers, strike out 200 times and still have a batting average south of .200 (.198). If his average does finish under .200, he will be the first player ever to have an average like that and also have 45 or more home runs, though his .345 OBP is comfortably above the league average of .320.

Shortstop Trea Turner this weekend likely will become only the third player in Phillies franchise history with a 100 run, 30 double, 30 homer, 30 stolen base season: Bobby Abreu (2x, 2001 & 2004) and Jimmy Rollins (2007).

It’s lefty Ranger Suarez (3-6, 3.80 ERA) on the mound. Suarez earned the win over St. Louis last Saturday, allowing one run on four hits and four walks while striking out five batters over six innings. Suarez had shaky control in the outing, throwing just 63 of 106 pitches for strikes and tying a season high with four walks. However, he was able to mostly navigate around trouble, leaving the bases loaded in the third inning before retiring 10 of the final 12 batters he faced. It was Suarez’s first win in three starts since returning from a hamstring injury Sept. 1, and he’s posted a 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 20:9 K:BB over 16.1 innings during that stretch.

Suarez is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA against New York in one start this year and 1-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 31.1 career innings against the Mets.

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Expert Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 4

NL East Standings

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