The marquee pitching matchup around the majors on Tuesday is pretty clearly from Atlanta as reigning NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom takes the mound for the New York Mets against red-hot Braves right-hander Julio Teheran. It opened as a pick’em on the MLB Odds.
Mets vs Braves MLB Spread & Prediction
- When: Tuesday, 7:20 PM ET
- Where: SunTrust Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Jacob deGrom/Julio Teheran
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: BRN
- MLB Spread: New York Mets -1.5 (Total 9)
Phillies vs Nationals MLB Odds, Preview & Expert Pick
Why Bet on NY Mets?
The Mets need to find ways to get first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith in the lineup more often. Smith went 2-for-3 with a double, a run scored and a walk in Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals. The 23-year-old was playing left field in this contest — it was his 11th game seeing the field in that capacity — as the Mets continue to try to find him at-bats now that Pete Alonso is entrenched at first base. For the season, Smith is hitting .348/.442/.562 with four home runs, 10 RBI and 22 runs scored. Smith is batting .388 (19-49) with 11 runs scored, five doubles, three homers, four RBI, six walks and a 1.128 OPS over his last 20 contests.
Second baseman Robinson Cano went 1-for-3 with a double, a walk and a run scored in Sunday’s loss. Cano was just activated from the injured list. He had been out with a left quad strain. Cano has tallied 2,512 career hits, one shy of tying Jimmy Ryan for 100th on the major league all-time career hit list. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo (neck) scheduled visits with additional specialists scheduled. Nimmo has been pulled off his rehab assignment, as the bulging disc in his neck is still giving him trouble.
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said that third baseman Jed Lowrie’s (knee, hamstring) “left side has caused him problems.” Lowrie is dealing with another injury in addition to the knee and hamstring ailments that have kept him sidelined all season. Lowrie has been fielding grounders and “continuing his baseball progression,” according to the GM, but isn’t close to a return.
It’s 2018 NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (3-6) on the bump. DeGrom allowed two runs on six hits with eight strikeouts and no walks across seven innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals in a suspended game. When he departed, the Mets held a two-run lead, but Edwin Diaz blew the save opportunity.
DeGrom’s numbers aren’t as good as last season, but he’s still pitching a lot better than his 3-6 record indicates. He’s yielded one or two runs in each of his last six outings, and yet he doesn’t have a win during that span. Overall, deGrom has a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts in 82.2 innings. DeGrom is 1-6 over his last 12 outings despite submitting seven quality starts over that stretch. DeGrom has been even better of late but is 0-1 with a 2.35 ERA over his last five starts.
Team Stats
Offense- Runs: 4.69
- Hits: 8.63
- Walks: 3.28
- Strike Outs: 9.19
Defense
- Runs: 4.90
- Hits: 8.85
- Walks: 3.31
- Strike Outs: 9.27
Why Bet on Atlanta?
On Monday, the Braves recalled lefty reliever Grant Dayton from Triple-A Gwinnett. Dayton made five scoreless appearances earlier this season with Atlanta and has posted a 2.65 ERA and 25/2 K/BB ratio in 17 innings this year at Gwinnett.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has at least one hit in 17 of his last 20 contests since May 24. He owns a .296/.375/.507 triple-slash line with 49 runs scored, 16 homers, 47 RBI and nine stolen bases this season. Acuna was last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, and the Braves have a candidate this season in Austin Riley. He hit his 11th homer in just his 29th career game recently, becoming the quickest player in franchise history to 11 career home runs. He was already the quickest to double-digit home runs after he reached 10 in 26 games. Only five other major leaguers have hit 11 home runs in their first 29 games, most recently by current Philadelphia outfielder Rhys Hoskins who hit a major league-record 13 in 2017.
Reliever Anthony Swarzak has an ERA of 0.73 since joining the Braves. Swarzak, who the Braves acquired from Seattle on May 20, has picked up all of his holds since joining Atlanta while limiting the opposition to four hits in 41 at-bats.
It’s Julio Teheran (5-4, 2.92) for Atlanta. Teheran allowed two runs (one earned) on three hits with two strikeouts and three walks across six innings to earn a victory against the Pirates on Thursday. He trailed through four frames, but the Braves offense exploded in the fifth for five runs, which the bullpen barely let hold up for Teheran to capture the win. Teheran snapped his scoreless innings streak, but he is still 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA over his last eight outings. This hot streak has improved his numbers to 5-4, 2.92 ERA, .197 batting average against, 1.19 WHIP and 76 strikeouts in 83.1 innings.
Teheran has continued to prove he’s at his best when he has the ability to command his two-seamer. He has a 1.78 ERA in his past 16 starts against the Mets dating back to 2015.
Team Stats
Offense- Runs: 5.17
- Hits: 9.00
- Walks: 3.70
- Strike Outs: 8.51
Defense
- Runs: 4.81
- Hits: 8.52
- Walks: 3.74
- Strike Outs: 8.68
Rays vs Yankees MLB Week 12 Betting Lines & Prediction
Mets vs Braves MLB Betting Trends
- Under is 6-1 in deGrom’s last 7 starts vs. Braves
- Under is 4-1 in Teheran’s last 5 home starts vs. Mets
- Mets are 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against Atlanta
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 5 games on the road
- Braves are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games this season
Expert Final Score Prediction for Mets vs Braves
New York Mets 2 – Atlanta Braves 3
