Mets vs. Phillies

Mets vs. Phillies | 2021 MLB Expert Analysis

Written by on April 6, 2021

The New York Mets got a break this offseason when starting pitcher Marcus Stroman surprisingly accepted the team’s qualifying offer, and he will be on the mound Tuesday as the Mets visit the rival Philadelphia Phillies, who are underdogs on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Mets at Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Marcus Stroman/Chase Anderson
  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream/gameday audio: ESPN app
  • Opening MLB Lines: Mets -137, Phillies +127 (total 9)

Why Bet on NY Mets? | 2021 MLB Expert Analysis

New York didn’t open its season until Monday in Philadelphia as the Mets’ three-game set at Washington over the weekend was wiped out due to the Nationals’ COVID issues. On Monday, the team made official the 10-year, $341 million contract extension signed by All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor.

There are no opt outs in the deal and it contains about $50 million in deferrals. It is the third-richest deal in MLB history behind only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. It blew away the previous franchise record, which was David Wright’s eight-year, $138 million deal.

Lindor, 27, is a four-time All-Star (2016-2019), a two-time Gold Glove Award winner (2016, 2019), including the American League Platinum Glove for the best overall defender in 2016 and a two-time Silver Slugger (2017, 2018).

“This is a great start to opening the season and a big step toward our pursuit of sustained winning… and championships,” said new Mets owner Steve Cohen.

It’s right-hander Marcus Stroman on the mound for the Mets. Stroman is coming off a strong spring, which saw him strike out 17 batters over 18 1/3 innings with a 3.44 ERA. He missed all of last season after electing not to play due to COVID-19 concerns, but he’s back now on an $18.9 million qualifying offer.

Stroman came up in the Blue Jays system, playing five seasons before being traded to the Mets in 2019. In 11 starts for the Mets, Stroman has posted a record of 4-2 with an ERA of 3.77.

An All-Star in 2019, Stroman posted a 3.22 ERA and a 77 DRA- over 184 1⁄3 innings between the Blue Jays and the Mets. He holds a 3.76 ERA for his six-year career as a big leaguer so far. Although he has always been a pitcher that has relied on ground balls over strikeouts, he put up the highest strikeout rate of his career (7.76 per nine innings) in 2019, in part thanks to the incorporation of analytics into his game plan. He threw more sliders and generated a 35.2% whiff rate on the pitch.

Why Bet on Philadelphia? | 2021 MLB Expert Analysis

The Phillies entered this series off sweeping three games against defending NL East champion Atlanta over the weekend. The Phillies swept the Braves for the first time since a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park, March 28-31, 2019, the opening series of that season.

Philadelphia allowed just three runs in the three-game series against Atlanta. For the Phillies, it was tied for the second-fewest runs allowed in the first three games of a season in franchise history (also: 1970). The 1915 Phillies hold the franchise record for fewest runs allowed (2) in the first three games of a season. Philadelphia’s pitchers combined to allow just three runs and five walks during the three-game series against Atlanta. It was the first time that the Phillies allowed three runs or fewer and five walks or fewer in a three-game series since Aug. 27-29, 2010 at San Diego.

It’s right-hander Chase Anderson on the mound here. The Phillies signed Anderson to a one-year, $4 million contract in the offseason to shore up the back of their rotation. He pitched well this spring, easily locking up the No. 5 spot in the rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin and Matt Moore.

Anderson, 33, made 10 appearances (seven starts) for the Blue Jays during the shortened 2020 season, his first with an American League club. In 33.2 innings pitched, Anderson had 38 strikeouts, an average of 10.2 SO/9.0 IP, which was his highest of any season. He also set career bests in swing-and-miss percentage (28.3), strikeout rate (24.7) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.80). In five of his seven starts, he posted a 3.20 ERA (7 ER, 19.2 IP), walked only four batters and allowed only two home runs.

From 2017-19 with Milwaukee, Anderson went 29-16 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and limited opponents to a .229 batting average in 87 games (82 starts). During that three-year stretch, he was one of nine National League pitchers to post an ERA below 3.65 and a WHIP under 1.20 with a minimum of 430.0 innings pitched.

Game Trends

  • Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 Tuesday games.
  • Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Phillies are 18-8 in their last 26 Tuesday games.
  • Phillies are 6-13 in their last 19 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Expert MLB Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 4


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