Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction

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One of the best rivalries in Major League Baseball will be renewed on Thursday night – although neither team is particularly good this year – as the Cardinals visit the Cubs. Both are likely to be sellers ahead of the trade deadline. Cubs ace Marcus Stroman is one who could be dealt and starts Thursday. With that in mind, let’s see how both teams arrive for your MLB betting.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Cardinals Cubs MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 8:05 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Steven Matz/Marcus Stroman
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+
Opening MLB Lines: Cubs -125, Cardinals -105 (total TBA)

Why Bet on St. Louis?

St. Louis has sported a winning record after the All-Star break in 19 of 22 seasons since 2000, including a 43-25 record last season (.632) that ranked 5th-best in MLB.

Nolan Arenado hit a walkoff, three-run homer on Tuesday, his 4th career game-ending blast and his first at Busch Stadium. It was the Cardinals’ first extra inning homer of the season and Arenado’s 3rd career, the last coming for the Rockies in the 11th inning on August 5, 2018 at Milwaukee. Arenado is up to second in the NL in RBIs. He led the league in RBI in both 2016 (133) and 2015 (130) for the Rockies.

It’s lefty Steven Matz on the mound for the Cardinals. Matz (0-7, 4.86 ERA) did not factor into the decision Saturday, allowing four runs on four hits and three walks over 4.1 innings against Washington. He struck out four. Matz retired his first seven batters but things went downhill fast, as Matz served up a pair of solo homers in the third to Alex Call and CJ Abrams.

Through 12 starts (60 innings), Matz is 0-6 with a 5.40 ERA and a 58:23 K:BB, though he’s been much better overall since moving to the bullpen. Considering his struggles as a starter, it’s unclear if Matz will stick in the rotation. However, he is starting at least one more game with Adam Wainwright (shoulder) on the injured list.

Matz threw 3.1 scoreless innings in relief in his last appearance vs. the Cubs in London on July 24. It matched the longest relief outing by a Cardinals pitcher in 2023 and is Matz’s only appearance vs. the Cubs as a member of the Cardinals. Prior to joining the Cards, he last appeared vs. the Cubs on June 3, 2018 at Citi Field with the Mets and lost 2-0.

Matz has one career appearance at Wrigley Field and threw 5.0 innings allowing four runs on eight hits in a 5-1 loss, July 18, 2016 while also with the Mets.

No. 1 catcher Willson Contreras and good-looking rookie outfielder Jordan Walker didn’t start Wednesday’s game vs. the Marlins but both are fine and will be ready for Thursday. Contreras is a former Cubs All-Star. The Cards are 3-2 vs. the Cubs this season and 2-1 at Wrigley.

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Why Bet on Chicago?

Star Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson, the team’s big offseason addition, remains on the injured list with a bone bruise in his left heel suffered on July 5 but is getting close to a return. It’s possible that could happen Thursday. Swanson leads Cubs position players in WAR (2.9) and earned a spot on the All-Star team before the heel injury cropped up. He is hitting .258 with a .753 OPS, 10 homers and 36 RBI this season.

Fellow infielder Nick Madrigal has been on the shelf for nearly all of July with a right hamstring strain but appears to be making progress. In 19 games before the injury, Madrigal was hitting .328/.409/.466 (.875 OPS) and playing solid defense at the hot corner.

Cubs batters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance, the highest rate in the majors. Ian Happ’s 4.33 pitches per plate appearance rank fifth in the majors among qualified hitters. Nico Hoerner’s 12.2% swing-and-miss rate is the third-lowest in the majors.

It’s ace Marcus Stroman on the mound and this might be his last start with the Cubs amid heavy trade rumors. Stroman has a player option for 2024 that he is expected to decline. Toronto is among the contenders looking at Stroman. He was originally drafted by the Jays and emerged as one of the team’s top starters before being traded to the Mets prior to the 2019 Trade Deadline.

Stroman (10-6) earned the win last Saturday, allowing one run on three hits and one walk over six innings against the Red Sox. He struck out three. Stroman was cruising through Boston’s lineup before surrendering a leadoff double to Justin Turner in the top of the fourth, which would eventually lead to one run coming across for the Red Sox. The right-hander would then go 1-2-3 over the next two innings to log his major league-leading 15th quality start. Stroman had allowed at least three runs in each of his last three starts coming in and now holds a 5.40 ERA in July. His season ERA of 2.88 ranks among the NL leaders.

Stroman is 1-5 with a 4.96 ERA in nine career starts against the Cardinals. He last faced them on June 25 in London in a 7-5 loss and left the game in the fourth inning with a blister on his right index finger. Stroman had allowed eight hits and three runs in his 3.1 innings.

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Expert Prediction

Cubs 4, Cardinals 3

W: Wins | L: Losses | %: Winning Percentage | GB: Games Behind | STRK: Current Streak | HOME: Record at Home | AWAY: Record When Away

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