Padres vs Cubs

Padres vs Cubs | MLB Betting Analysis

Written by on June 1, 2021

One of the marquee series around baseball early this week is a potential playoff preview between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs from Wrigley Field. The Cubs opened as very short favorites for Tuesday’s Game 2 behind No. 1 starter Kyle Hendricks.

How to Bet Padres at Cubs MLB Odds & TV Info
  • When: Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET
  • Where: Wrigley Field
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Ryan Weathers/Kyle Hendricks
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings
  • Stream/gameday audio:
Why Bet on San Diego?

The Padres’ 5.31 runs per game on the road leads the National League. Since 2010, the Padres have only outscored 3 of their National League opponents in road games: the Pirates (+0.94), Astros (+0.91), and Cubs (+0.73). The Cubs’ .485 winning percentage against the Padres at Wrigley is the lowest against any NL opponent since 2010.

Catcher Austin Nola and outfielder Trent Grisham are on the injured list, but Grisham could be activated ahead of Tuesday’s game. It has been apparent since he went on the injured list with a heel bruise that it would likely be the minimum 10-day stay there for the center fielder. As long as he has not setbacks after running Monday, he will be in the lineup Tuesday. The Padres have been without at least one of their regular core players for the past 20 games.

Nola, meanwhile, is probably out another week with a knee sprain. Nola had a late start to the season due to a finger injury, and while he started slow had picked things up with the bat.

Lefty Ryan Weathers (2-1, 1.31 ERA) will face the Cubs for the first time in his young career. Weathers worked four scoreless innings with five strikeouts last Thursday against the Brewers. He did not factor into the decision.

Weathers looked sharp in the outing, relying primarily on groundballs and strikeouts. However, he was limited to 78 pitches and hasn’t been allowed to work beyond four innings since experiencing joint inflammation in his throwing arm April 28. He has pitched exactly four innings in each of his three starts since he returned to the rotation, posting a 2.25 ERA in that span.

Weathers says he simply tries to keep it simple on the mound and gave a self-scouting report: “Everybody knows the fastball, just kind of move it around, try to change speeds. Three pitches: fastball, changeup and slider. Obviously, every single one’s still a work in progress, try to get something better on it each day. Can’t ever be content. Strike-thrower, going to come after you with all three and gonna make you put the ball in play. Not afraid of contact, not afraid to give up the long ball. If it happens, it happens. Gonna make you put the ball in play. I don’t want to give you a free 90.”

No matter how he feels or what the results are, the 21-year-old rookie will likely be capped at around 120 innings this season. It will depend on factors such as the stress of those innings and total number of pitches required to get through them. Weathers threw 96 innings in his previous professional season, at low-A in 2019.

Why Bet on Chicago?

The Cubs have won each of their last five series. The streak started by winning two-of-three in Detroit, May 14-16, then three-of-four vs. Washington, May 17-20, prior to the six-game trip at St. Louis and Pittsburgh, before taking two of three at home over the weekend vs. Cincinnati.

The Cubs had to put infielder David Bote on the injured list over the weekend. He separated his left shoulder on a slide Saturday vs. the Reds. Bote grabbed his shoulder after the play at second base in the fourth inning. He was helped off the field and replaced by Patrick Wisdom at third base before the Reds batted in the top of the fifth.

The Cubs have been hit hard by injuries this month, especially among their position players. Infielders Matt Duffy and Nico Hoerner and outfielders Jake Marisnick and Jason Heyward have been placed on the 10-day injured list since May 10. First baseman Anthony Rizzo hasn’t played since last Tuesday due to a lingering back issue but isn’t on the injured list.

It’s Kyle Hendricks (5-4) on the mound. Hendricks pitched seven solid frames last Thursday, allowing three runs in a victory over the Pirates. The runs all came on solo homers, including a pair back-to-back from Bryan Reynolds and Gregory Polanco in the fourth. Backup catcher Michael Perez hit the other in the seventh. Hendricks moved to 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA this month, which is a huge improvement over his 1-3 record and 7.54 ERA from April.

Hendricks will put his personal three-game winning streak on the line in Game 2 against the Padres. Over his last three starts, Hendricks has posted a 2.08 ERA with 17 strikeouts and just one walk.

He makes his 10th career start against the Padres (sixth at Wrigley Field) and is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA (20 ER/63.0 IP) with 61 strikeouts against nine walks lifetime against San Diego, including a 2-1 record with a 2.78 ERA (10 ER/32.1 IP) in five starts at Wrigley Field. He has held Padres batters to a .204 average (23-for-113) at Wrigley Field. Hendricks averages 15 pitches per inning against San Diego for his career, as well as 6.78 strikeout to walk ratio.

Game Trends
  • Padres are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
  • Padres are 19-9 in their last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 10-3 in their last 13 home games.
  • Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
Expert Prediction
  • Padres 5, Cubs 4
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