2024 Philadelphia Phillies Odds and Betting Analysis Before Season Start

2024 Philadelphia Phillies Odds and Betting Analysis Before Season Start


Philadelphia Phillies 2024 MLB Season Rundown, Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies haven’t won the World Series since 2008 but came relatively close the past two seasons, losing in the 2022 Fall Classic in six games to Houston and then falling in the 2023 NLCS in seven games against Arizona. Can Bryce Harper and the Phils finally break through this season?


Philadelphia Phillies Odds to Win

Regular-season wins: O/U 90.5
To make playoffs: Yes -225, no +180
To win NL East: +325
To win NL pennant: +750
To win World Series: +1400

The Phillies seem to have established a pattern the past two seasons: They finish way behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East but then upset the Braves in the NLDS despite not having home-field advantage. It happened in 2022 and again in 2023 when the Phils won in four.

The Phillies slugged 220 home runs during the 2023 regular season, which ranked 2nd in club history (224 in 2009) but they set a franchise record with 121 home runs after the All-Star break. The Phillies had six different players with 20+ home runs which set a franchise record. The team went 49-32 at home with a +83 run differential (418-335) that was their best mark at home since they were +114 at home in 2011 (367-253).

Phillies Last 5 Last Season
vs Blue Jays – W 6-5
@ Blue Jays – W 5-2
@ Orioles – L 4-2
vs Yankees – L 8-3
@ Blue Jays – L 6-3

Kyle Schwarber had quite the season with 47 homers (second in majors), 104 RBI, 108 runs scored and 126 walks but also hit just .197. He became one of only 13 MLB players since 1920 (when RBI became official) with a 120 walk/100 R/100 RBI/45 HR season. Shortstop Trea Turner had a career-high 66 extra-base hits in his first season in Philadelphia. He also hit 26 home runs, scored 102 runs and was a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts.

Two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper got a late start to the 2023 season off surgery and will only play first base or DH moving forward – no more outfield. Harper last season became only the 18th player in MLB history to reach 1,500 career hits and 300 home runs before turning 31 years old. In “Close & Late” situations (7th inning or later with the batting team ahead by one run, tied, or with the tying run on base, at bat or on deck), Harper had 91 plate appearances and slashed .387/.495/.667 with a 1.161 OPS that was the best in MLB.

Pretty much everyone is back for Philadelphia this season as the club was able to sign its two aces, Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, to long-term extensions. Nola was set for free agency this winter and got a seven-year, $172 million deal.

Last year, Nola made 32 starts for the third consecutive season and went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA with 202 strikeouts to 45 walks. The Phillies went 19-13 in his starts and won eight of his last nine. At Citizens Bank Park, Nola went 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA (32 ER, 87.2 IP) as the Phillies went 10-4 in his 14 starts at home. Among all National League starters in 2023, Nola ranked tied for fourth in starts, tied for fifth in innings pitched, sixth in opponents OBP (.283), strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.49) & walk rate (5.7 %), seventh in WHIP (1.15) and tied for eighth in strikeouts.

Nola is good but Wheeler is better and he wasn’t set for free agency until next winter, but the Phils locked him up to a three-year, $126 million deal. Wheeler’s deal carries the highest average annual value ($42 million) for a contract extension in MLB history. It is the third-highest AAV for any pitcher behind Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Philadelphia Phillies MLB Odds Baseball Betting Lines for the 2024 Regular Season

Wheeler is 43-25 with a 3.06 ERA in 101 starts since he signed a five-year, $118 million contract with the Phillies in December 2019. It is the fourth-best ERA in the majors over that span (minimum 500 innings). Wheeler’s 19.6 bWAR and 19.3 fWAR over the past four years are each the best in the majors among pitchers. He’s led the National League in strikeouts and innings pitched during his four seasons with the Phillies. An NL Cy Young Award runner-up in 2021, Wheeler also won a Gold Glove last season. Wheeler is also stellar in the playoffs with a 2.42 ERA over the past two postseasons, which is the sixth-best in MLB history (minimum 10 postseason starts).

Wheeler and Nola have a combined 32.3 WAR from 2020-23, according to Baseball Reference, a number that would have been higher if not for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Since the Divisional Era began in 1969, only two Phillies duos have pitched together for four consecutive seasons with better WAR.

Other than that, the only relatively major move the team made was signing infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield to a one-year, $8 million deal. He can play nearly every position but catcher and gives the Phils protection all over the diamond in case of injuries. He hit 11 home runs and stole 26 bases with the Blue Jays last season and made his third All-Star team but had a subpar second half.

Philadelphia opens the season March 28 at home vs. Atlanta and either Nola or Wheeler will be on the mound.


Phillies Expert Predictions

Under 90.5 wins, yes playoffs, no division/pennant/World Series
MyBookie MLB Odds for the 2024 Regular Season


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2022 Philadelphia Phillies Betting Analysis

MLB Philadelphia Phillies Betting Predictions for the 2022 Season

For the first time in a long time, Philadelphia Phillies fans are excited for the season. In 2021, the Phillies went 82-80 and Bryce Harper won the NL MVP. The thinking in Philadelphia is that Harper continues playing like a future hall of famer while manager Joe Girardi gets his squad to take the next step. Check out MLB odds, analysis, and betting predictions for the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies.  

2022 MLB Season 

  • When: March 31 – Nov. 2

Phillies to Win the NL East Division +440

The odds aren’t at an overlay number because the Phillies must beat at least two solid teams. The first are the Atlanta Braves. The second are the New York Mets.

Philadelphia should have no trouble taking it to the Washington Nationals, though. So even if we can’t write that the odds are at an overlay number, we can’t say they’re underlaid, either. The odds to win the NL East Division are fair.

Overlay or Underlay Odds: Fair

Phillies to Win the National League Pennant +1425

Atlanta, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco, and Milwaukee are the best teams in the National League. The St. Louis Cardinals will also make the case.

But Philadelphia has a dynamite lineup and an underrated starting rotation. If Zach Wheeler continues his ascension to Cy Young pitcher status, and Aaron Nola improves off his 4.63 ERA from last season, the Phillies could be one of the teams to beat in the NL, which is why the +1425 odds make the Phillies an overlay to win the pennant.

Overlay or Underlay Odds: Overlay

Phillies to Win the World Series +3200

The reigning NL MVP in Bryce Harper, the best catcher in baseball in J.T. Realmuto, and a Cy Young ace starter in Zack Wheeler, make the Phillies an overlay at +3200 to win the Fall Classic.

No doubt, Didi Gregorious must drastically improve his 2021 batting average, Gregorious hit .209, and another ace must emerge in the rotation, but if those things happen, the Phillies become at worst a +2000 choice to win the World Series.

Overlay or Underlay Odds: Overlay

Bryce Harper NL MVP Award +1000

It’s tough to win back-to-back NL MVPs, but we can’t write off Harper’s chances of doing so. Bryce hit .309 last season with 35 home runs and 84 RBIs.

He did so after struggling early in the season, which means Harper settled down and started blasting dingers. Getting out of a slump requires mental fortitude.

So if Bryce has figured out how to calm his mind and get base hits almost at will, forget it. Harper can post a string of MVP victories. The +1000 odds on Harper are more than fair.

Overlay or Underlay Odds: Fair

2020 Philadelphia Phillies Betting Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies Analysis Before 2020 Season Start

Say what you like about the underachieving Philadelphia Phillies, but when it comes to defining mediocrity, they’ve virtually cornered the market the last two seasons. After going 80-82 in 2018, Philly landed right on the .500 mark by going 81-81 last season to finish a disappointing fourth in the NL East. Now, after missing out on reaching the postseason for the eighth straight season following a five-year run that resulted in being named World Series champs in 2008, the Phils want to get back to playing winning baseball in a big way in 2020. Whether that happens or not, change is in the air in Philadelphia as they kick off a new era under manager Joe Girardi. Now, let’s find out what lies in store for the the NL Pennant long shot hopefuls. Let’s check the MLB Odds and World Series Odds for the Philadelphia Phillies 2020 Season.

Philadelphia Phillies Analysis Before 2020 Season Start

Philadelphia Phillies 2020 MLB Season Odds

  • NL Pennant Odds +1200
  • World Series Odds +3300

Philadelphia Phillies Offensive Analysis

You might not have known it, but Phillies ownership has spent over $700 million on free agents the last three off seasons in order to get the NL East residents back to being a competitive team, but it hasn’t worked so far. To that end, the Phils fired former manager Gabe Kapler and replaced him with former Yankees manager Joe Girardi. Philadelphia closed out the 2019 regular season ranked 14th in scoring (4.78), 22nd in team batting average (.246), 17th in OPS (.746) and 22nd in home runs (215). After signing free agent right fielder Bryce Harper to a 10-year mega-deal prior to last season, Philadelphia got a good, but not great campaign out of the six-time all-star and 2015 NL MVP winner. Harper smacked 35 home runs and drove in 114 runs, but hit just .260 to finish 17 percentage points under his career average.

More importantly, no other everyday starter reached the 30-homer plateau although first baseman Rhys Hoskins did hit 29 while catcher J.T. Realmuto added 25 long balls. The bad news is that the pair hit just .226 and .275 respectively. The Phillies are also hoping that veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen makes a complete return to full health after suffering an ACL tear. At the time of his injury, McCutchen had a .378 on-base percentage which was second best in the majors among leadoff men. The Phils did add veteran shortstop Didi Gregorious in free agency after the Yankees decided to let him walk, but they’ll also be counting on the untested Adam Haseley and Scott Kingery to become contributing everyday players.

Philadelphia Phillies Defensive Analysis

The Phillies were also mediocre defensively a year ago in ranking 17th in team ERA (4.53), 19th in WHIP (1.37), 15th in quality starts (58) and 17th in errors (97). To address their lack of quality pitching, Philadelphia signed veteran right-hander Zack Wheeler (11-8, 3.96 ERA), to a five-year, $118 million contract that has him pegged as the team’s No. 2 starter behind fellow right-hander Aaron Nola (12-7, 3.87 ERA). However, after those two, Philly’s starting pitching looks like it takes a steep decline with aging Jake Arrieta and youngsters Zach Eflin (10-13, 4.13 ERA) and Vince Velasquez (7-8, 4.91 ERA) rounding out the starting rotation. When it comes to the bullpen, there is also what looks like a bunch of mediocrity just waiting to happen with closer Hector Neris being, by far, the team’s best reliever.

Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Movements

Traded LHP Tyler Gilbert to the L.A. Dodgers for OF Kyle Garlick. Signed RHP Hector Neris to one-year deal with an option for 2021. Signed RHP Tommy Hunter to one-year deal. Signed RHP Vince Velasquez. Signed RHP Jose Alvarez. Signed SS Didi Gregorious to one-year contract. Signed RHP Zack Wheeler to 5-year contract. Signed catcher Andrew Knapp.

Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia is looking at another uphill battle in trying to get past Washington and Atlanta in the NL East and no matter how hard I try to envision everything going right for Philly, I just don’t see it happening enough to even remotely pick them for a playoff berth.

With a relatively weak pitching staff, it won’t matter how well the Phils’ position players perform this coming campaign. Joe Girardi can scream and yell or try to coax his younger players with words of encouragement. In the end, this is a team that just doesn’t have the arms – or bats – to really challenge for much of anything in 2020.


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