MLB Phillies vs. Cubs Odds and Prediction

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Sometimes in the NFL, a team has a bit of a hangover after playing a regular-season game in London. The Chicago Cubs just split two games over the weekend in London and return home on Tuesday to face the Philadelphia Phillies, with the Phils as short favorites on the MLB odds.

They open a very interesting interleague series on Tuesday with the Phillies favored on the MLB betting lines.

Phillies vs. Cubs Odds and Betting Prediction | MyBookie Regular Season Baseball Preview

Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -125; Cubs +105 / O/U 8.5
Probable pitchers (away/home): Ranger Suarez/Jameson Taillon

Tuesday, June 27, 2023 at 7:05 pm ET
Wrigley Field | Chicago, Illinois

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Philadelphia Phillies closed a homestand with a 7-6 win over the Mets on Sunday to get to 40-37. Trea Turner went 2-for-3 with a homer, three RBI and two steals in the win. Turner homered in the first and singled in a run in the third, but the Phillies were down 6-3 after seven. They were able to mount a comeback against the dregs of the Mets bullpen with Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley unavailable and David Robertson being held back.

Turner’s homer was his first since June 5. He’s having a solid month, having hit .279/.367/.430 with 17 runs scored and eight steals in 22 games. Sunday was Turner’s fourth career game with a home run and multiple stolen bases. Turner has the most of such games among active players and since 2000, only six other players have had four or more games with a home run and multiple stolen bases: Jimmy Rollins (7), Alfonso Soriano (6), Vladimir Guerrero (5), Carlos Beltrán (4), Ichiro Suzuki (4) and B.J. Upton (4).

Craig Kimbrel picked up the save in Sunday’s win. The Phillies rallied to take a one-run lead in the bottom of the eighth, and Kimbrel got the call in the ninth, his first save opportunity since June 15. It was his seventh consecutive scoreless innings since June 11. His last 19 appearances have produced a 4-0 record, eight saves, a 1.42 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 19 innings. Overall, Kimbrel is a perfect 11-for-11 in save chances and holds a 4.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 50:14 K:BB across 33 appearances (31 innings).

It’s lefty Ranger Suarez on the mound here. Suarez (1-2) did not factor into the decision Tuesday, allowing a run on four hits and two walks over six innings in a 4-2 loss against Atlanta. He struck out seven. After a rocky start to the year, Suarez has now logged five consecutive quality starts, sporting a 1.38 ERA in that span. The 27-year-old left-hander is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 42:14 K:BB in eight starts (43.2 innings) this season.

One bit change this year has been Suarez throwing the curve more. Suarez threw the curveball about 7.7% of the time last season, but in 2023, he has upped that figure to 21.6%. It’s become his second-most-used pitch. Hitters are batting just .063 against it. He has a 38% whiff percentage and a 11.1% hard-hit percentage on his curveball, according to Baseball Savant. Suarez has a 1.04 ERA over his last four starts. He’s gradually thrown his curveball more, mainly because he’s had a better feel for it.

“Curveball, if you don’t feel the best, it’s definitely a feel pitch,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said. “It’s not like a slider necessarily where you just crank it. You’ve got to have a good hand; you’ve got to finish it well. He’s feeling better.”

Suarez is 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in 17 career innings against the Cubs. He allowed four runs over two innings of a home loss to the Cubs on May 19.

Why Bet on Chicago?

The Chicago Cubs had a four-game winning streak end Sunday in a 7-5 loss to St. Louis in London. Cody Bellinger didn’t start due to illness but then first baseman Trey Mancini was pulled after a terrible fielding play and Bellinger took his place. Mancini has negative-4 defensive runs saved this season, according to FanGraphs, and has a negative-3.5 Defensive Runs Above Average rating, one of the worst in the league at first base.

Since his first game of the season in Chicago on May 9, Christopher Morel’s .638 slugging percentage ranks third in the majors behind the Angels Shohei Ohtani (.693) and the Rangers Corey Seager (.655), while his 13 home runs are tied for fourth, his .971 OPS ranks tied for seventh.

Reliever Adbert Alzolay has posted a 0.98 ERA (2 ER/18.1 IP) in his last 15 games since May 6, walking three, striking out 16 and posting a 0.76 WHIP. Fellow reliever Julian Merryweather since April 17 has pitched to a 0.98 ERA (3 ER/27.2 IP) with one win and allowed 22 hits and 14 walks with 41 strikeouts in 28 appearances.

It’s Jameson Taillon (2-5) on the mound here. Taillon was charged with the loss in his last start against the Orioles after he allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks across 5.1 innings. He struck out one. He carries a bloated 6.71 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 45/19 K/BB ratio across 53 2/3 innings (12 starts) into Tuesday.

What has been noticeable this year is how Taillon is able to get ahead of hitters in the count and struggle to put them away. Over his career he has had good command, entering this year with a 2.2 BB/9. This year he sports a 3.2 BB/9 and a H/9 (hits-per-nine innings) over 10. The strikeout rate is around where it normally is, but he’s walking more this year. Taillon said he is appreciative of all the work Chicago’s catchers and pitching coaches have put in behind the scenes to help him start trending in the right direction again.

“I have a lot of people in my corner,” Taillon said. “I’m not motivated by proving people wrong. I’m more motivated by proving people right that believe in me.”

Taillon has faced the Phillies six times in his career and is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA. Bryce Harper is 4-for-10 off him with a double.

MLB Pick: Phillies 5, Cubs 4 | Bet Phillies vs. Cubs Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Games

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs | Betting Trends for Game

The Phillies have won 28, or 58.3%, of the 48 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
Philadelphia is 22-12 this season when entering a game favored by -125 or more on the moneyline.
The Cubs have been victorious in 14, or 37.8%, of the 37 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
Chicago has a win-loss record of 11-16 when favored by +105 or worse by bookmakers this year.
The Cubs rank 18th in baseball with 85 total home runs.
So far this year, Chicago’s .401 slugging percentage is 18th in the majors.
The Phillies rank 21st in Major League Baseball with 80 home runs.
Hitters for Philadelphia have combined for a team rank of 12th in the majors with a .414 team slugging percentag

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