Phillies vs Yankees: MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction and More

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The lone national TV matchup around Major League Baseball on Tuesday features the defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies visiting the 2022 American League runner-up New York Yankees, who are favored on the MLB odds.

Philadelphia vs. NY Yankees | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Phillies at Yankees MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET Where: Yankee Stadium Probable pitchers (away/home): Matt Strahm/Domingo German TV: TBS Stream/gameday audio: TBS app Opening MLB Lines: Yankees -145, Phillies +135 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

Phillies manager Rob Thompson told reporters Monday that two-time MVP Bryce Harper (elbow) is progressing well in his recovery and could start hitting on the field on Thursday. After he hits on the field for a while, Harper could be cleared to begin taking at-bats in minor league games. The Phillies are optimistic that Harper will be able to return earlier than originally anticipated, so they held off on placing him on the 60-day injured list to start the season. Not only is the team without him, but first baseman Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL late in the spring and will miss the season.

It’s a homecoming for Thomson as over his almost three-decade run with the Yankees, Thomson served many roles including 10 seasons on the ML staff as bench coach (2008, 2015-17) and third-base coach (2009-14).

Nick Castellanos is averaging 4.38 pitches per plate appearance, which is nothing new as this spring, Castellanos drew 11 walks in 62 plate appearances (17.8 % BB rate) and posted a .371 OBP. In Spring Training from 2017-22, Castellanos walked 12 times in 269 plate appearances (4.5% BB rate).

It’s lefty Matt Strahm on the mound for Philly. He’s expected to be ready to throw 65-70 pitches in what will be his first real start since 2019 — he did open once for the Padres in 2021. Strahm will likely return to the bullpen once Ranger Suárez comes off the IL.

The Phillies’ staff will continue to monitor Strahm’s workload. He has appeared in 207 Major League games, though only 25 as a starter (16 of which came with the Padres in 2019). Considering that Suarez has yet to resume throwing bullpen sessions, he could spend more than the 15-day minimum on the injured list, setting Strahm up for multiple turns through the rotation.

“He has started in the past, but not for a few years,’’ Thomson said. “So that’s always a concern.’’

Last year, Strahm pitched 50 times out of the bullpen for Boston and was 4-4 with a 3.83 ERA. It came as quite a surprise when the Phillies signed Strahm in early December. He signed for two years and $15 million, a hefty payday for a veteran arm without much history of success. Yet the Phillies pounced, inking him to one of the 50 largest free agent contracts of the offseason. Only six relief pitchers signed for more guaranteed money.

Strahm has pitched 14.2 career innings vs. the Yankees and is 0-2 with a 2.45 ERA.

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Why Bet on NY Yankees?

Ahead of Monday’s series opener, New York transferred RHP Frankie Montas from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. The procedural move opens up a spot on New York’s 40-man roster for reliever Ian Hamilton and also rules out any potential return for Montas until at least early June.

Hamilton signed a minor league contract with the Yankees in February and nearly made their season-opening roster. The 27-year-old righty, who has made 15 relief appearances in the majors since 2018, will serve as extra relief depth with Jhony Brito heading back to the minors following Sunday’s stellar spot start.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Harrison Bader (oblique) could progress to taking swings in a batting cage this week. Boone added that Bader swung a bat in a pool on Friday in a dry cage Monday and will continue doing so for the next few days. The 28-year-old outfielder has been out since early March after suffering a left oblique strain and is hoping to rejoin New York’s lineup sometime in mid-to-late April.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both homered on Sunday. It marked the 27th time during the regular season the pair has both homered in the same game with the Yankees going 25-2 in those games – 12 of those games came in 2022. The duo has also homered in four Yankees postseason games, with the Yankees winning each of those games. The Yankees have gone 146-49 in Judge’s career when he homers. Since 2020, the Yankees are 74-20 in those games.

It’s Domingo German on the mound Tuesday. Last year, he went 2-5 with a 3.61 ERA (72.1IP, 65H, 31R/29ER, 19BB, 58K, 11HR) in 15 games (14 starts) with the Yankees. Due to diminished fastball velocity, he morphed into more of a contact-oriented pitcher given his career-low 19.5 percent strikeout rate.

German allowed 3R-or-fewer in a career-high 12 consecutive starts from 7/27-9/30. He missed the first 93 games of the season with right shoulder impingement syndrome. In five seasons with the Yankees, he has gone 26-21 with a 4.37 ERA (413.2IP, 201ER) and 429K in 92 games (70 starts). This spring, German was 1-1 with an ugly 8.71 ERA. Home runs (he has allowed 1.61 per nine innings during his career so far) will likely be a problem for him for the remainder of his MLB tenure.

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Game Trends

• Phillies are 7-22 in their last 29 interleague road games.
• Phillies are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
• Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. American League East.
• Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague home games.
• Yankees are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. National League East.
• Yankees are 23-10 in their last 33 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.

Expert Prediction

Yankees 5, Phillies 4

Aaron Judge is RED HOT! Hits his 2nd home run of the 2023 season

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