Rangers vs Phillies MLB Expert Picks, Money line & Analysis

Rangers vs Phillies MLB Expert Picks, Money line & Analysis

We nearly saw the Texas Rangers face the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2023 World Series, but the Phils blew a 3-2 lead in the NLCS against Arizona.

The teams open a good interleague series on Tuesday night with a great pitching matchup and the Phils favored on the MLB odds.

MLB Moneyline Phillies -150, Rangers +135 (total 8)
Expert Pick Phillies 4, Rangers 3

Texas Rangers Betting Pick +136

Will the Rangers have 2023 ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia in the lineup? He was scratched from Sunday’s series finale against the Angels with forearm soreness a day after a collision in the outfield with second baseman Marcus Semien while both All-Star players went after a popup. Garcia had an MRI that apparently showed nothing serious and Manager Bruce Bochy said he thinks Garcia will be in the lineup Tuesday with Texas off Monday.

Garcia has a solid 117 wRC+ over 192 plate appearances this season, though his .251/.297/.491 slash line is power-heavy. While Garcia has 11 homers and is making lots of hard contact, his strikeout and walk rates are both well below the league average, and his 5.7% walk rate is in particular a sharp drop from his 10.3% number in 2023.

The Rangers’ outfield, assuming García avoided a serious injury, is near full strength. Rookie Evan Carter started in left field on Sunday for the first time since May 10 after lower back stiffness sidelined him for a week, and Bochy said Sunday that fellow rookie Wyatt Langford is “doing great” in his rehab from a hamstring strain.

Carter was hitless Sunday in the 4-1 upset loss. Corey Seager went 1-for-2 with a solo home run and two walks. He has gone 17-for-64 (.266) with four homers and nine RBI over 17 contests this month. Seager’s had a down year across the board with a .247/.338/.371 slash line, six homers, 17 RBI, 19 runs scored and three doubles through 44 games. The good news is his 11.8 percent walk rate, which is the highest it’s been in his three years as a Ranger.

It’s righty Jon Gray on the hill Tuesday. Gray (2-1) allowed four hits and two walks while striking out three over 6.1 shutout innings to earn the win last Wednesday versus the Guardians. Gray has strung together four straight quality starts after posting just one over his first six outings this season. During his streak, Gray has allowed just four runs while posting a 20:3 K:BB over 27.1 innings. He is at a 2.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 52:14 K:BB through 52 innings across 10 appearances (nine starts) in 2024.

Gray has been the steadiest presence in the Rangers’ rotation amid a slew of injuries to starters. He leads the Rangers with nine starts this season.


Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick -167

The Phillies have a comfortable lead atop the NL East, although I expect the Braves to eventually track them down. The Phils enter on a three-game winning streak, sweeping three at home vs. Washington over the weekend. At 34-14, the Phillies tied their franchise record for the best start in the first 48 games, matching the 1976 and 1993 clubs.

The Phillies have either tied or won each of their last 14 series, the longest span without a series loss since a franchise-record 19-series stretch from Aug. 29, 1983-April 25, 1984 – this is the longest single season stretch without a series loss in franchise history. Philadelphia has matched its season best from last season of 20 games over .500. They are doing all this without All-Star shortstop Trea Turner due to a hamstring injury.

Is Turner ahead of the six-week timetable to return to the field? Manager Rob Thomson gave some positive feedback over the weekend. “He’s doing very well,” Thomson said. “He’s doing well.” Thomson said he’s hoping Turner will make the trip with the Phillies to London when they head overseas for the two games against the New York Mets on June 8-9. That would be five weeks since Turner suffered the hamstring injury.

Third baseman Alec Bohm is having by far his best season and went 1-for-3 with a three-run home run and two additional RBI during Sunday’s 11-5 win over the Nationals. Bohm collected more than four RBI for the fifth time in his career, hitting a pair of sacrifice flies before tagging Tanner Rainey for a three-run homer in the eighth inning. In his last six games, Bohm is batting 8-for-24 (.333) with nine RBI. He’s now the major league leader with 42 RBI, giving him one more than Marcell Ozuna and José Ramírez. With a .330/.389/.528 line in 47 games, he’s on track to make his All-Star debut this summer.

In a very limited sample this season, Kody Clemens — who was called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley following Turner’s hamstring injury — is hitting .321 with a 1.166 OPS after going 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles in Sunday’s finale. Clemens also put up big numbers this spring, when he hit .325 with three home runs and a 1.066 OPS. But following the signing of Whit Merrifield, Clemens was simply the odd man out in the Phillies’ final roster crunch.

Another player having his best season is lefty Ranger Suarez, who is scheduled to pitch Tuesday. Suarez (8-0) earned the win over the Mets last Wednesday, allowing two unearned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out three batters over five innings. Suarez allowed a run in each of the first and third frames, but neither run was earned. He thus lowered his season ERA to 1.37, third best in the majors among qualified starters. Suarez also leads the league with eight victories and a 0.76 WHIP, and he has yet to take a loss. He’s among the early contenders for Cy Young consideration in the National League.

Suarez has cut last year’s walk rate from 8.9% to 4.1% thus far, which is among the lowest in MLB. Through eight starts (43.2 innings pitched) last year, Suárez had walked 14 batters. He’s permitted just eight this year while already tossing 54 innings.

Suarez is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in five career innings vs. Texas.



Bet Rangers vs Phillies MLB

When: Tuesday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Pitchers (away/home): Jon Gray/Ranger Suarez
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

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