The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox just played last week in St. Petersburg, with Boston taking two of three. On Tuesday, the Rays open what is their last series of the year in Boston with the Sox favored on the MLB Odds behind former Rays Cy Young winner David Price.
Rays vs Red Sox Spread & Expert Prediction
- When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Fenway Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Charlie Morton/David Price
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: 104.5 The Team
- MLB Spread: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (Total 9.5)
Why Bet on Tampa Bay?
Race ace and 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell underwent arthroscopic surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. The surgery was a success Snell is expected to return to action sometime in early-to-mid September.
Outfielder Tommy Pham was removed from Sunday’s game against the Blue Jays with a sprained right hand. The good news is that the X-rays didn’t reveal any structural damage and he’s only dealing with a minor sprain. Still may miss a few games. Over the weekend, the Rays made two trades. The big one was landing infielder Eric Sogard from the Blue Jays for two players to be named. Several other clubs were reportedly in talks with the Jays to acquire Sogard. The 33-year-old is having a terrific season at the plate, slashing .300/.363/.477 with 10 homers and six stolen bases in 323 plate appearances. Sogard is just shy of qualifying for leaderboards, but his .300 average would rank 10th in the American League if he qualified. His 10 home runs are a career-high and are one shy of matching his total (11) from his first eight major league seasons combined.
Sogard has struck out only 47 times in 323 plate appearances this season. He is making contact on 89.6 pct. of his swings, which ranks fifth in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances. The major league contact rate is 76.3 pct. It’s All-Star Charlie Morton (12-3) on the mound. Morton picked up the win in last Wednesday’s 3-2 victory over the Red Sox, giving up two runs on five hits over seven innings while striking out 11. It’s the fourth time this season Morton has fanned double-digit batters, with three of those performances coming in his last five starts. He’ll take a 2.60 ERA and 163:41 K:BB through 131.1 innings into Tuesday. In his career, the 35-year-old right-hander is 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA over seven starts and 39 2/3 innings against the Red Sox.
Morton leads the AL with a 2.60 ERA, the fourth time a Rays pitcher has led the AL in ERA in July (or later), following David Price in 2010 and 2012 and Blake Snell in 2018. Morton has yielded 2 runs or fewer in 17 of 22 stars, 2nd-most in the majors behind the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu (18), excluding openers.
- Runs: 4.57
- Hits: 8.75
- Walks: 3.31
- Strike Outs: 9.38
- Runs: 3.82
- Hits: 7.67
- Walks: 2.87
- Strike Outs: 9.69
Why Bet on Boston?
Three of the top 14 leaders in position player WAR are Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts (4th, 5.0), Rafael Devers (6th, 4.4), and Mookie Betts (14th, 3.9). Those players rank 1-2-3 in the AL in runs. Bogaerts and Devers have combined for more doubles (70), RBI (163), XBH (117), and hits (262) than any other pair of MLB teammates this season. Betts leads MLB with 96 runs scored (11 more than any other player), a 162-game pace of 146. The only Red Sox player ever to score 140+ runs in a season is Ted Williams (3 times, high of 150 in 1949).
In the bullpen, Brandon Workman leads MLB in opponent AVG (.109), opponent SLG (.160), and opponent OPS (.422). He has allowed 0 HR to his last 121 batters faced. Matt Barnes leads AL relievers with 16.42 SO/9.0 IP, trailing only MIL’s Josh Hader for the ML lead (16.88). Barnes has allowed 0 runs in July (7.0 IP, 3 H, 14 SO).
The lefty David Price will face his former team for the second straight start. Price (7-4) took the loss Wednesday as the Red Sox were downed 3-2 by the Rays, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks over six innings while striking out eight.
Surprisingly, the southpaw only managed six swinging strikes among his 98 pitches (63 total strikes), as his lack of dominance was more than compensated for by a generous strike zone. Price now has nine quality starts on the season, and he’ll carry a 3.66 ERA and 114:27 K:BB through 98.1 innings into Tuesday. At Fenway Park lifetime, Price is 29-8 with a 3.06 ERA. After allowing 8 runs in his first start vs. Tampa Bay at Fenway on 4/21/16, Price has allowed a total of 10 ER in his last 6 home starts against the Rays since (2.27 ERA, 39.2 IP, 29 H, 45 SO). Price has held left-handed batters to a .197 AVG and .230 SLG this season (12-for-61, 2 2B).
- Runs: 5.85
- Hits: 9.88
- Walks: 3.75
- Strike Outs: 8.35
- Runs: 5.08
- Hits: 8.81
- Walks: 3.42
- Strike Outs: 10.12
Rays vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends
- Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter
- Red Sox are 19-9 in Price’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record
- Under is 5-1 in Price’s last 6 home starts vs. Rays
- Rays are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
- Red Sox are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games this season
Expert Final Score Prediction for Rays vs Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays 3 – Boston Red Sox 4