Reds vs Brewers | Milwaukee Looks for Sweep Payback

Reds vs Brewers | Milwaukee Looks for Sweep Payback

The last time the Milwaukee Brewers hosted the Cincinnati Reds this season, the Brew Crew were surprisingly swept in a three-game series. They look for payback starting Thursday night as the teams open a weekend series with the Brewers as slight MLB betting favorites.

How to Bet Reds at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

In their most recent meeting, from June 14-16 at American Family Field, the Reds completed their first sweep of the Brewers since September 2017 (at Great American Ball Park) and their first sweep in Milwaukee since 2009. The Reds won 5 of the last 6 games at American Family Field.

Monitor the status of Reds second baseman Kyle Farmer. He was out of the lineup for Wednesday’s series finale vs. Kansas City. Reds manager David Bell called it “body soreness.” If Farmer can’t go Thursday, Mike Freeman would get the start again.

All-Star outfielder Nick Castellanos, who leads the NL in batting, didn’t start Wednesday, either, but it was simply a breather. Castellanos went 2-for-9 with a home run, a double, two runs and four strikeouts across the last two games. In Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker, the Reds will have 2 starters in the All-Star Game lineup for the first time since 2013 and 2 starting outfielders in the lineup for the first time since 1956 (Gus Bell, Frank Robinson).

It’s Tyler Mahle (7-3) on the mound here. Mahle pitched well in a no-decision against the Cubs last Saturday, surrendering two runs (one earned) on five hits over his five frames. The right-hander piled up seven strikeouts but also walked four. The only earned run that he allowed came on a solo blast off the bat of Kris Bryant in the third inning. Mahle generated 17 swings and misses.

He has fanned fanning at least six batters in seven straight starts, and he’ll take a 3.63 ERA and 112:31 K:BB through 89.1 innings into this start. Mahle lads the staff and ranks among the National League leaders in strikeouts (13th) and strikeouts per 9 innings (5th, 11.28). He is 5-1 with a 2.01 in 10 starts on the road. Overall, left-handed batters are hitting .188 off him compared to .254 by righties.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers are a bit of a disadvantage in that they had to play a doubleheader at the Mets on Wednesday because of a Tuesday rainout. Outfielder Lorenzo Cain has started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville.  Cain has missed all of June and early July while dealing with his hamstring strain. He will need to get at least a handful of games in Triple-A before he’s ready to return.

On Tuesday, the Brewers acquired first baseman Rowdy Tellez from the Blue Jays for pitchers Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis. Tellez had struggled with the Blue Jays this season, but he makes for a reasonable gamble for Milwaukee while they wait for Daniel Vogelbach to return from a hamstring injury. Tellez’s best season came in 2019 when he set career highs with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs. For his career, he has a .241 batting average, 37 home runs and 99 RBIs in 219 games.

“This is a player who has consistently put the bat on the ball and he’s consistently hit the ball hard — those are two pretty good attributes for major league hitters,” Brewers general manager David Stearns said. “He has a long track record of success in the minor leagues. He got off to a little bit of a slow start this year at the major league level. We think the underlying ingredients are pretty sound. We think he should be able to perform at the major league level. He’s going to get a shot.”

It’s Adrian Houser (5-5) on the mound. Houser picked up his fifth victory of the season last Friday, limiting the Pirates to one run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings. The right-hander punched out five on the night while walking two. The only run that he surrendered came on an RBI groundout by Phillip Evans in the second inning. Houser generated six whiffs in the game and posted a CSW of 25 percent.

Houser has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last seven appearances and is undefeated in that seven-game stretch — a span in which he’s gone 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Overall, he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this year.

Houser is 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA in 9 career games (6 starts) against the Reds (31.2ip, 21er), including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 2 starts this season (9.1ip, 7er).

Game Trends

  • Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
  • Brewers are 9-4 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • Reds are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Reds are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.

Expert Prediction

  • Brewers 4, Reds 3

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