Thursday's Best MLB Betting Matchups & Expert Picks

Thursday’s Best MLB Betting Matchups & Expert Picks

Written by on July 19, 2017

Thursday is always an MLB betting day to be bit cautious when teams are playing in a getaway day game to close out a series. That’s because you can see guys rest when it’s an early afternoon game after a night matchup on Wednesday. Here are three big MLB betting games for this upcoming Thursday and my expert recommendations.

Thursday’s Best MLB Betting Matchups & Expert Picks

St. Louis Cardinals at NY Mets

When: 12:10 PM ET Where: Citi Field TV: MLB Network / FS-M (St. Louis) / SNY (NY) Radio: KMOX 1120 (St. Louis) / 710 WOR (NY) Stream: MLB Betting Odds: TBA It’s the series finale between these two and the earliest first pitch of Thursday. It’s also the last time St. Louis will play at Citi Field this year because these teams aren’t making the playoffs. The Cards start Lance Lynn, who reportedly is on the trading block. Lynn (8-6, 3.40) threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings and also scored a run in the Cardinals’ 4–0 win at Pittsburgh last time out. It was the third time this season that St. Louis won a game in which its starting pitcher scored but did not allow a run (Adam Wainwright on June 1 & Carlos Martinez on June 10.) No other team has more than two wins of that type in 2017. Lynn has not allowed a run in either of his past two starts (13 1/3 innings) and has a 1.82 ERA over four starts since surrendering seven runs in back-to- back outings. He blanked the Mets over seven innings on July 9.

Who Will Take the Mound on Thursday for New York?

The Mets’ Seth Lugo won after giving up three runs on seven hits and two walks with five strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings Saturday against the Rockies. Lugo swatted his first career homer and tossed a quality start to improve to 4-2 on the season. The 27-year- old was spotted an early 7-0 lead by the third inning when he clobbered a first-pitch sinker over the wall in left-center field. The righty now owns a 4.50 ERA, but he could be closer to a 4.00-ERA pitcher the rest of the way as his .323 BABIP and 69.3 percent strand rate suggest that Lugo is getting a bit unlucky.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Cardinals are 5-2 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total wentUNDER in 6 of St. Louis’s last 7 games
  • Mets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Mets are 3-8 SU in the last 11 games

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

When: 1:35 PM ET Where: Fenway Park Boston TV: MLB Extra Innings / SNET (Toronto) / NESN (Boston) Radio: SN590 (Toronto) / WEEI 93.7 (Boston) Stream: MLB Betting Odds: TBA It’s the series finale between these AL East rivals. Francisco Liriano (neck, back) threw a successful bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon. The expectation is that Liriano will start Thursday against the Red Sox, but the Blue Jays aren’t going to make that official until they see how the veteran lefty feels on Wednesday. Liriano exited his last start Saturday against the Tigers after experiencing tightness around his upper back and neck. Toronto also should have solid reliever Joe Smith available. He is expected to be activated from the disabled list Wednesday. Smith worked a scoreless rehab inning Monday night with Triple-A Buffalo, striking out two of the three batters he faced. He also tossed a scoreless frame at Buffalo on Friday. The right-hander has been on the disabled list since June 15 due to shoulder inflammation.

Who Should Be on the Look Out in Boston?

Definitely monitor the status of Red Sox star shortstop Xander Bogaerts for this one. He was scratched from the Red Sox lineup Tuesday due to a sore right hand. Bogaerts took a pitch off the hand July 6 at Tampa Bay and has been dealing with discomfort ever since. An MRI is scheduled, although the team doesn’t think it’s serious. Bogaerts is hitting just .154/.244/.231 so far in July. Doug Fister is expected to start. He was originally to start Tuesday but had to pitch in relief last Saturday. The sinkerballer will try to recover from a tough last start before the break, when he gave up five hits and six runs (four earned) in 3 2/3 innings against the Rangers. Fister took a no-decision against the Jays on June 30, giving up three runs.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Blue Jays are 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Blue Jays are 2-4 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Boston’s last 5 games
  • Red Sox are 16-8 SU in the last 24 games at home
The Red Sox are MLB betting favorites heading into Thursday's series finale.

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners

When: 10:10 PM ET Where: Safeco Field, Seattle TV: MLB Network / YES (NY) / ROOTNW (Seattle) Radio: 101.9 FM (NY) / 710 ESPN (Seattle) Stream: MLB Betting Odds: TBA First meeting of the season between the teams and could be a wild-card game preview. The Yankees are wrapping up their three-city, 11-game road trip. It’s their third trip of at least 11 games since 2007 (also 7/3-13/14 and 9/15-26/16). Seattle’s Nelson Cruz has reached 20 homers again and could be an MVP candidate. It’s Cruz’s 9th consecutive season with 20+. He’s the only player with 20+ home runs in every season since 2009 and the only player who has a chance to join him is Houston’s Brian McCann (has 11 this season).

Who Will Start for the New York on Thursday?

It’s All-Star Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40) for the Yankees. He got the no-decision after giving up one run on four hits and two walks with six strikeouts over seven innings Saturday against the Red Sox. Severino has logged a quality start in three of his past four outings and lasted seven innings in all three, yet he remains winless since June 10. A first-time All-Star in 2017, the 23-year- old now owns a 3.10 FIP and 3.13 xFIP behind his 3.40 ERA. Seattle ace Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20) allowed three runs — one earned – – on six hits while striking out five batters through five innings during Saturday’s win over the White Sox. The veteran has posted a 3.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 with three wins through his five starts since returning from the disabled list.

Latest MLB Betting Trends

  • Yankees are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Yankees are 6-13 SU in the last 19 games on the road
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of the Yankees’s last 5 games
  • Mariners are 6-13 ATS in the last 19 games
  • Mariners are 5-1 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games
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