Yankees vs Astros ALCS Game 1 Odds, Preview & Expert Pick

Yankees vs Astros 2019 ALCS Game 1 Odds, Preview & Expert Pick

Written by on October 12, 2019

The two top teams in baseball based on record throw down in the American League Championship Series starting on Saturday, Oct. 12 when the New York Yankees travel to Minute Maid Park to face the Houston Astros. Can the home team Astros get a game up on the Yankees? Or, will New York continue their hot streak after sweeping the Twins in the ALDS? Check out the MLB Playoff odds, a preview and a free pick for Yankees vs Astros!

Yankees vs Astros 2019 ALCS Game 1 Odds, Preview & Expert Pick

Weather Forecast

  • Sunny: 30°C/86°F
  • Humidity: 58%
  • Precipitation: 2%
  • Wind: 10 mph SE
  • Cloud Cover: 15%
  • Type of Stadium: Retractable

Why New York Yankees are a good bet at +140?

The New York Yankees made it look easy against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins, one of the best home run hitting teams in baseball, couldn’t figure out the Yankees’ pitchers. That was surprising because heading into the postseason, NYY’s biggest flaw was, supposedly, starting pitching.

On Saturday, they start Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has a 4.5 ERA, 11-9 record and a 1.24 WHIP. Those aren’t mind-blowing pitching stats. However, in his lone game versus the Twins, Tanaka threw 5 innings and allowed only a single run off 3 hits. If he’s got his best stuff working, the Yankees can pull off the upset win.

Team Statistics

  • Runs/G: 5.82
  • BA: .267
  • OPS: .829
  • HR: 306
  • SB: 55
  • ERA: 4.31
  • WHIP: 1.30
  • KS: 1534
  • Quality Starts: 53
  • Errors: 102

Why Houston Astros are a good bet at -165?

The Astros used another shut down performance by Gerrit Cole to dominate the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 in the ALCS. On Saturday, they send out Zack Greinke, the third starter in their rotation.

Although Greinke got shellacked by the Rays in his lone postseason start, he’s one of the top pitchers in MLB. He should bounce back with a marvelous performance against a team he holds to a .233 batting average. If Greinke gets in a zone, he’ll dominate.

Team Statistics

  • Runs/G: 5.68
  • BA: .274
  • OPS: .848
  • HR: 288
  • SB: 67
  • ERA: 3.68
  • WHIP: 1.13
  • KS: 1671
  • Quality Starts: 88
  • Errors: 70

MLB ALCS Game 1 Betting Trends for Yankees vs Astros

  • Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day
  • Yankees are 2-12 in their last 14 League Championship road games
  • NY is 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Houston
  • Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 League Championship games
  • Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Houston is 21-8 in their last 29 home playoff games

ALCS Game 1 Yankees vs Astros Betting Analysis

Zack Greinke is a man of few words, but don’t be fooled. He knows he bombed in his first postseason start as a Houston Astro. Greinke wants to win a World Series, like every player left in the postseason.

Why did Greinke fail against the Rays? Pitchers are fickle. They work best when in a routine. Greinke wasn’t in a routine. He started against the Rays off 12 days rest. Starting pitchers are like lead guitarists. They work off muscle memory. When they don’t use those muscles, the pitches get wonky.

That’s what happened to Greinke. It won’t happen to him on Saturday. While Zack holds the Yankees to a .233 batting average, the Stros belt Tanaka with a .304 batting average. The Yankees pitchers had a ton of success against the Twins. They won’t come close to that success versus the Astros. Houston wins Game 1.

MLB Free Pick: Houston Astros -165
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