Heat vs. Knicks Predictions: Game 5 for Eastern Conference Semifinals

Heat vs. Knicks Predictions: Game 5 for Eastern Conference Semifinals

The Miami Heat can punch their ticket to a second straight Eastern Conference Finals with a win at the New York Knicks in Game 5 of their East semifinals matchup at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday with the Heat up 3-1. New York is favored to extend it on the NBA odds.


Heat vs. Knicks, Game 5 | 2023 NBA Expert Analysis


How to Bet Miami at New York NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Madison Square Garden
Stream: TNT app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Knicks -4 (total 209.5)


Why Bet on Miami?

The Heat took a 3-1 series lead with a 109-101 home win over New York on Monday and Miami is 3-0 in the series when star Jimmy Butler plays. Jimmy Butler had 27 points, 10 assists and six rebounds on Tuesday. Butler has scored at least 25 in every playoff game in which he’s appeared this season, and he’s got his team in position to make the Eastern Conference Finals for the third time in five years.

Bam Adebayo had 23 points and 13 rebounds. Adebayo hauled in a team-high rebound mark while finishing as one of two Heat players with 20 or more points despite dealing with a shoulder issue in Monday’s Game 4. Adebayo posted his highest scoring and rebound totals of the series against the Knicks, having recorded a double-double in two straight contests.

Max Strus added 16 points and six rebounds. Strus has finished with at least 15 points with three or more threes in three straight games. Scoring was a struggle for Miami all season when Butler hit the bench. That hasn’t been the case for most of the postseason, with Miami +5 without Butler in an eight-point victory. The bulk of the credit belongs to Kyle Lowry (15 points on six shots) and Caleb Martin (10 points on eight shots).

The Knicks, who dominated the glass in the first round against Cleveland, were outrebounded 44-35, including 13-8 on the offensive boards. The Heat have had possession of the ball longer than the Knicks in every game, mostly because their offense has often gone late in the shot clock. Game 4 — with Miami grabbing 13 offensive rebounds and totaling 17 second chance points (to the Knicks seven) — had the biggest time-of-possession discrepancy of the series thus far. Miami’s average of 16.8 seconds per possession was their second highest mark of the season (93 total games).

“Just maybe they want it more. I don’t know,” Julius Randle said. “That’s been who we are all year. Got to find a way to step up and make those plays, keep this season alive.”

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Why Bet on New York?

New York hasn’t been able to generate consistently good offensive looks all series, relying on tough makes – or the few open threes they’re getting, which they haven’t made outside of the corners – and offensive boards to keep their attack on the tracks.

The bench also has been an issue as the Knicks’ bench was outscored by 22 points in a game they lost by eight on Monday. That’s not a recipe for success for New York, but it has been a trend, as the Knicks’ bench has been outscored by the Heat’s in every single game in the series so far. Immanuel Quickley’s absence was a factor Monday as he is New York’s best bench scorer. He was out with an ankle injury.

Jalen Brunson turned in 32 points, 11 assists and four rebounds in Monday’s loss. The 32 points represent Brunson’s highest-scoring effort of the 2023 postseason, and he’s now reached the 30-point mark in two of his last three. Brunson surpassed the double-digit assist total for the first time of the postseason.

RJ Barrett had 24 points, four rebounds and three assists. Barrett has surpassed the 20-point mark in three of the four games this series. Julius Randle accumulated 20 points and nine boards in 39 minutes before fouling out. Randle, who finished one board shy of a double-double, has notched at least 20 points and eight rebounds in two of his last three games of the series.

Coach Tom Thibodeau reinserted Quentin Grimes into the starting lineup after bringing him off the bench for the first three games of the series. His offense had been mostly nonexistent in the postseason, the 3-and-D guard averaging just 4.3 points and missing 15 of 18 3-point attempts entering the game. But he is a court-spacing, ball-mover who the Heat have to account for on the perimeter. Grimes had nine points and five rebounds.

The Knicks have played with a razor-thin margin for error this year. Now they have none and must figure a way to make one last stand at home and then come back here, and try to win a game in a building in which they’ve led for exactly 24 seconds out of 96 minutes so far this series.

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MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


Game Trends

  • Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
  • Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
  • Under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in New York.

Expert Prediction

Knicks 104, Heat 101


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