Miami vs Boston, Game 4 | 2022 NBA Expert Betting Analysis

Miami vs Boston, Game 4 | 2022 NBA Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on May 23, 2022

The Miami Heat are listing several players as questionable for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the Boston Celtics on Monday, but they are all likely to play. Boston is a solid favorite on the NBA odds.

How to Bet Heat at Celtics NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: TD Garden
Stream: ESPN app
NBA Odds: Celtics -7 (total 208.5) | Bet Now

Why Bet on Miami?

The Miami Heat were 109-103 upset winners in Boston in Game 3 on Saturday. Victor Oladipo started the second half of the win and ended his night with five points, one assist and four steals in 20 minutes. Oladipo didn’t play in the first half but started the second half for Jimmy Butler (right knee inflammation), and he had some great defensive plays despite a quiet scoring night. His four steals also helped the team tally a franchise playoff-high 19 steals in this game.

Kyle Lowry (left hamstring strain) played 29 minutes in his return to action on Saturday, recording 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting, one rebound, six assists, four steals, two 3-pointers and two turnovers. Lowry missed his last four games and had missed eight of his last 10 coming into Saturday. He helped the Heat get off to a dominant 39-18 start through the first quarter of action, which was ultimately enough to get the win. There was a bit of worry when Lowry headed to the locker room after his first stint, but it was confirmed that he was just in the back keeping his hamstring warm while off the court. Gabe Vincent returned to a bench role in Lowry’s return and predictably had just three points.

Bam Adebayo was perhaps the best player on the floor Saturday with 31 points (15-of-22 FGs), 10 rebounds, six assists, four steals and a block. After averaging just eight points on five shot attempts through the first two games of this series, Bam reached both of those numbers within the first five minutes of the game. At shootaround, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra wanted Bam to be more aggressive. He definitely was. 

Butler’s right knee injury is not considered to be serious and he could be back for Game 4 on Monday. Heat sixth man Tyler Herro is dealing with a quad injury and was seen with a wrap/ice around his leg at the end of Game 3. He’s questionable for Monday. It’s obvious that he’s not quite right, as he’s averaged just 9.5 points per game on 0-of-9 from range over his last two and 4-for-15 on Saturday. Herro is also questionable. So is Lowry, Butler, P.J. Tucker (left knee inflammation), Max Strus (right hamstring strain), and Vincent (left hamstring strain). They are all expected to play. Strus has currently connected on multiple three-point field goals in eight-straight games, tying the third-longest such streak in Heat postseason history.

As noted, the Heat set a team record with 19 steals in Game 3. The 19 steals also tie for the fifth-most in NBA postseason history. The Heat’s defense has held teams to under 40 percent from three-point range, including under 50 percent from the field, in 11 of their 14 playoff games, while also holding teams to under 100 points seven times.

Miami has recorded +152 points in their 10 playoff victories, averaging a +15.2 scoring margin in their wins. Miami has not trailed during the fourth quarter in all 10 of their postseason wins in these playoffs.

Why Bet on Boston?

After going down 46-20 in the second quarter of Game 3, Boston chipped away throughout the second half. Its biggest stretch came in the form of a 12-0 run late in the fourth quarter, which brought them to within one point with 2:40 remaining. However, Miami didn’t fold, as it turned its 93-92 lead back into a 100-92 lead in a matter of 73 seconds.

Jaylen Brown scored a playoff career-high 40 points in Saturday’s loss, adding nine rebounds but also seven turnovers in 42 minutes. Brown did a great job scoring the ball, but many of his turnovers were because of him losing his handle, particularly in the second half– the Celtics committed 24 turnovers overall. On a night when Jayson Tatum (10 points on 3-of-14 shooting) really struggled, Brown helped pick up the slack but ultimately didn’t have enough help to get a win.

Tatum suffered a right shoulder injury in Game 3. It looked like Tatum reached awkwardly and he was down in a lot of pain for multiple possessions, eventually heading to the locker room with around five minutes left in the fourth quarter — coach Ime Udoka was calling it a stinger after the game. It wasn’t Tatum’s night even before the injury, recording twice as many turnovers (6) as shots made (3). Tatum is probable for Monday’s game.

Guard and NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart has swelling in his right ankle, and the Celtics will see how he feels on Monday before determining his status for Game 4. Smart twisted his ankle pretty bad in Game 3 but wasn’t out of the game long. If he can’t play, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard will be relied on to make up for his absence.

Robert Williams is considered "day-to-day" after missing Game 3. Williams has missed five of the last seven games for the Heat because of issues with his left knee after missing a month because of a meniscus tear. Daniel Theis got the start in place of Williams, but he only played 11 minutes. Grant Williams filled the majority of the minutes in Game 3, playing 39 off the bench.

“They were just like a wounded animal. They came out fighting,” Al Horford said after logging 20 points, 14 rebounds, and three blocks in the losing effort. “For whatever reason, we just didn’t have that same sense of urgency.”

Coach Ime Udoka said that one of his team’s biggest adjustments will be taking better care of the ball. He wasn’t happy with their lack of ball security throughout Game 3: “When you turn the ball over 24 times and gift them 33 points out of that, you dig yourself a hole.”

Game Trends

  • Heat are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog
  • Heat are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
  • Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog
  • Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss
  • Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss
  • Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games
  • Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston

Expert Prediction:
Celtics 108, Heat 104 | Bet Heat at Celtics Game Now


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