March Madness Odds: Sweet 16 Betting Analysis and Trends for Michigan State vs Kansas State

March Madness Odds: Sweet 16 Betting Analysis and Trends for Michigan State vs Kansas State

The lone team still standing for the Big Ten in the 2023 NCAA Tournament is No. 7 seed Michigan State as the Spartans face No. 3 seed Kansas State of the Big 12 in Sweet 16 action from the East Region on Thursday. The Spartans are short favorites on the NCAAB odds.


Sweet 16: Michigan State vs Kansas State | 2023 NCAA Tournament Expert Analysis


How to Bet Michigan State vs. Kansas State NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 6:30 PM ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York
Opening NCAAB Lines: MSU -1.5 (total 137.5)


Why Bet on Michigan State?

The Spartans usually thrive in March under Coach Tom Izzo. They upset Big East champion Marquette 69-60 in the Round of 32 on Sunday. Three players scored in double figures for the Spartans, led by senior guard Tyson Walker’s game-high 23 points. Graduate forward Joey Hauser registered a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds, while junior guard A.J. Hoggard finished with 13 points and four assists. In addition, junior center Mady Sissoko collected 10 rebounds and scored eight points.

Leading 56-55 at the 3:36 mark in the second half, the Spartans went on a 10-0 run over the next three minutes to seal the victory. Walker had eight of the 10 points during the key stretch. It marked Walker’s fourth 20-point game this season (MSU with 4-0 record in those games). MSU is 6-1 when Hauser registers a double-double.

Michigan State shot 82.6 percent (19-of-23) from the free-throw line, including 88.2 percent (15-of-17) in the second half. The Spartans had a +5 margin on the boards, outrebounding Marquette 36-31. MSU outscored Marquette in the paint, 32-16. The Spartans held Tyler Kolek, the Big East Player of the Year, to seven points on 2-of-8 shooting and also forced him into committing six turnovers.

The book on Michigan State says the Spartans make their three-pointers and never force turnovers. Then MSU went 2-of-16 from beyond the arc and forced 16 turnovers in beating Marquette. The Spartans have connected on 55% of their shots inside the arc in this year’s Dance and limited both USC (first round) and Marquette’s second-chance opportunities.

Izzo reached his 15th regional semifinal and won his record 16th March Madness game with a lower-seeded team — one more than Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim, who retired after this season. Michigan State finished fourth in the Big Ten but appears to be improving at the right time.

“We’ve still got some dancing to do,” Izzo said. “And we’re going to New York. I couldn’t be more excited for Tyson (Walker) and even A.J., being a Philly guy. After watching the tournament, it doesn’t matter who we play, when we play, where we play, or how, it’s going to be a hell of a game. And I’m looking forward to it.”

Michigan State is 72-34 all-time in NCAA Tournament games. The Spartans are making their 17th trip to the Sweet 16 since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.


Why Bet on Kansas State?

K-State upset Kentucky 75-69 in the Round of 32 on Sunday. Kansas State missed its first 13 3-pointers and sat at 2 for 17 when the outside shots started falling and it pulled away late. Down 62-61 with 2:43 to play, Ismael Massoud gave KSU the lead for good with a deep 3-pointer from the right wing with 2:21 to play that was followed by another deep triple from Keyontae Johnson on an offensive rebound from junior David N’Guessan at the 1:23 mark.

Senior Markquis Nowell continued the 8-0 spurt with a pair of free throws that extended the lead to 69-62 with 37 seconds. Nowell and fellow senior Desi Sills clinched the game at the free throw line with a combined 6 consecutive makes.

Nowell was one assist shy of posting consecutive double-doubles in his first two NCAA Tournament games, as he finished with a game-high 27 points, 9 assists and 3 steals in playing all but 16 seconds. It was the most points by a Wildcat in an NCAA Tournament game since Rodney McGruder scored 30 points vs. Southern Miss on March 15, 2012. It was Nowell’s team-leading 12th 20-point game, while it was the 31st in his career and 15th as a Wildcat. He is one of two players since 1990, along with Murray State’s Ja Morant, to combine for 40 points and 20 assists before the Sweet 16.

K-State scored its 75 points on 48.1 percent (28-of-54) shooting, including 23.8 percent (5-of-21) from 3-point range, while connecting on 81.8 percent (18-of-22) from the free throw line… The team has totaled 2,568 points this season, which is the fourth-most in a single season and most since 2,630 in 2017-18. K-State had just 8 turnovers in the game, which were one shy of a season-low. The Wildcats are now 19-2 when having equal or less turnovers than its opponents.

First-year head coach Jerome Tang has gone from having just two players on the roster to having a matching number of NCAA wins — sending the Wildcats to their first Sweet 16 since 2018. Tang left Baylor after a long stint on Scott Drew’s staff to take over a program that last went to the tournament in 2019 and had three straight losing seasons.

It will be the 18th trip to the Sweet 16 for the Wildcats, including the first since 2018. The win was the 25th of the season, as they became the eighth team in school history and the first since 2018-19 to collect a 25-win season. Thursday will be the eighth all-time meeting with the Spartans, including the first in the NCAA Tournament and the first overall since 1996.


Game Trends

  • Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 neutral site games.

Expert Prediction

Michigan State 71, Kansas State 70


Michigan State vs. Marquette – Second Round NCAA tournament


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