Which Trends Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?

March Madness is on the way. Even fans who do not follow College Basketball all that closely get into the Madness of March. The unpredictability of the event, and the fact that the little guy has a chance in a one-game matchup, is something fans across the world enjoy, making it the perfect time to predict March Madness surprises.

If you’re looking for college basketball betting lines statistics and trends that could help you help you in your quest for March Madness betting success, then you’ve come to the right place.

Which Trends Could Help Predict March Madness Surprises?
The Upset Code: Unlock the Trends That Will Dominate March Madness!

2025 March Madness | 86th edition of the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament
Selection Sunday: Sunday March 16th, 2025

Conference Tournament Performance Isn’t Always a Reliable Indicator

Others, especially battle-tested squads from power conferences, may bow out early in their league tournament but come back strong in the NCAA Tournament.

The key word when looking for teams that can translate decent conference tournament play to the NCAA Tournament is energy.

How much energy did the team expend to win or go far in their conference tournament? Energy depletion might be the single most important factor to why lower level seeds upset higher seeds in the first round.

Good Road Squads Usually Excel in March

Teams that perform away from home during the regular season tend to handle the tournament environment better.

The ability to win in hostile environments signals mental toughness, strong defense, and efficient offense—all necessary for March Madness success.

Good road teams also possess an intangible.

The intangible is the ability to shut out the noise and just play ball.

The best NCAA Tournament teams have had this ability.

If distractions get in the way of performance, the team is doomed to exit early.

Many conference tournaments also happen on neutral courts.

So take that into account as well.

If a team mustn’t be on their court to put forth a winning effort, then the squad might be primed for a deep NCAA Tournament run.

Statistical and Analytical Trends

Use Advanced Metrics—But Don’t Overdo It

More importantly, we must downgrade statistics in the NCAA Tournament.

The reason is because teams are unfamiliar with each other.

So a team that has great statistics in conference play could for sure struggle against a team they know nothing about.

One of the major shifts in recent years has been the increasing use of advanced analytics in college basketball.

Three-Point Shooting Variance is a Game-Changer

Don’t forget about three-point defense.

Defending against the three is as important as making threes.

In fact, the team that has the better three-point defense has a big edge no matter the other statistics because of how significant making threes has become.

As the three-point shot continues to change the game, teams that continually hit the outside shot over and over can pull off the big game upsets.

Looking at three point percentages before each matchup could give you a better idea of how the game is going to go.

Turnover Margin and Rebounding Separate Contenders from Pretenders

Winning the turnover battle and dominating the boards are essential for March success.

The key words are extra possessions.

Success in the NCAA Tournament comes down to limiting your opponent’s possessions.

You limit possessions through great defense and by creating more possessions for yourself via offensive rebounding.

Free Throw Shooting is a Must Have for Tournament Success

Free throws become critical in close tournament games.

Remember, because the NCAA Tournament is a one-and-done event, teams are going to foul players on squad’s with the lead again and again towards the end of he game.

If you don’t make your free throws, you could lose.

Coaching Strategies

As much as some may not like to admit it, College Basketball still needs elite coaches.

Coaches that have their teams prepared for a certain game plan, or have their own game plan to eliminate what their opponent does best often find their way to March Madness success.

Many of the top coaches in the country once started as the underdog and picked up some March Madness upsets along the way to springboard into a bigger, betting paying job.

Do not overlook the impact of head coaches in the NCAA Tournament!

Conference Performance

How a team did in their conference season could play a factor.

But, what is a better use of conference performance is strength of schedule, style of play, and ability to play specific styles of basketball.

Each conference brings a little something to the floor, and to know and understand this for each of the 68 teams could help you when you are ready to make your March Madness picks.

Intangible and Situational Trends

Big Dance Coaching Experience Matters

Try to back teams with coaches who have proven they can manage the rigors of the NCAA Tournament.

A college basketball game is 40 minutes.

Upgrade teams with HCs that know how to manage those 40 minutes.

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