NCAAF Big 12 Championship: #9 Baylor at #5 Oklahoma State Betting Analysis

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Oklahoma State outlasted rival Oklahoma while Baylor ended their regular season beating Texas Tech, setting up what promises to be one of the most competitive college football championships of the season on Friday. Check out NCAA Football odds, analysis, and a free pick for the Big 12 title game between the Cowboys and the Bears.

NCAA Football – Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

NCAAF Big 12 Championship Game Baylor at #5 Oklahoma State Game Odds & Info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 4 at 12:00 pm ET 
• Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
• TV / Streaming: ABC / ESPN+
• ATS Odds: Oklahoma State -5 ½ 
• Moneyline Odds: Baylor +180 / Oklahoma State -220
• Over/Under Odds: 46 ½   

Why bet on Baylor versus Oklahoma State?

Baylor’s defense and rushing attack have dominated opponents this season. The Bears average close to 228 yards per game on the ground. The defense allows less than 20 points per game. Also, backup QB Ben Shapen has filled in admirably for starter Gerry Bohannon. Shapen, a top MLB prospect, completed 20-of-34 for 254 yards and a couple of TDs in the win over Texas Tech.  

Baylor Bears Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 446.7

• Passing Yards: 219.0

• Rushing Yards: 227.7

• Points Scored: 33.4

• Turnovers: 6

Baylor Bears Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 351.4

• Passing Yards: 228.5

• Rushing Yards: 122.9

• Points Scored: 19.4

• Takeaways: 12

Why bet on Oklahoma State versus Baylor?

Save for a 3-point loss at Iowa State, the Pokes have dominated their Big 12 opponents. Oklahoma State not only beat Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech, but they also put a 10-point beating onto Baylor earlier in the season. The Pokes know they’ve got a real shot to grab a College Football Playoff spot. Mike Gundy’s team won’t let the chance slip through their fingers.  

Oklahoma State Cowboys Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 409.3

• Passing Yards: 217.7

• Rushing Yards: 191.7

• Points Scored: 31.8

• Turnovers: 6

Oklahoma State Cowboys Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 276.3

• Passing Yards: 184.8

• Rushing Yards: 91.5

• Points Scored: 16.4

• Takeaways: 9

Relevant Trends for Baylor Bears versus Oklahoma State Cowboys

• Bears are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in December
• Baylor is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
• Under is 5-1 in the Bears’ last 6 games as an underdog
• Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games
• Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at a neutral site
• Under is 6-1 in the Cowboys’ last 7 neutral site games

Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Final Betting Prediction

Both Michigan in the Big Ten Championship and Alabama in the SEC Championship are vulnerable. Bama must beat #1 Georgia to keep their playoff hopes alive. Michigan must beat a solid Iowa team a week after dominating their biggest rival.

Should either squad falter, the Cowboys would jump into the top four. But first things first. The only way for Oklahoma State to make it to the CFP is to beat rival Baylor.

Will they? On paper, Oklahoma State is the much better team. Baylor’s pattern, though, is to follow up mediocre performances with solid ones. 

After losing to TCU, the Bears bounced back with an upset victory over Oklahoma. Baylor barely hung on against Texas Tech. If their pattern holds, they’ll play great on Saturday.

However, there’s a caveat. As of the Wednesday before the Big 12 Championship, quarterback Gerry Bohannon is listed as day-to-day. Shapen has played well, but it’s a big ask to beat Oklahoma State’s excellent defense.

Baylor can only win this if Bohannon is one-hundred percent and even if he plays, it’s doubtful he will be at his best. The spread is more than fair. Oklahoma State grabs the cover victory and then crosses their fingers that Alabama or Michigan loses. 

NCAAF Big 12 Championship Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys

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