Georgia blasted Michigan in the Orange Bowl and the Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Sugar Bowl to set up a Bama versus Dawgs rematch for the National Championship. Alabama and Georgia played each other a few weeks ago in the SEC Championship. Bama came out on top. But heading into the National Championship, the Tide is an underdog. Check out early College Football National Championship odds as well as an odds analysis of the 2022 College Football National Championship.
NCAA College Football Playoffs – National Championship Game Early Odds
CFP National Championship: Georgia vs Alabama
- When: Monday, Jan. 10 at 8:00 pm ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- TV / Streaming: ESPN / ESPN+
- ATS Odds: Georgia -2
- Moneyline Odds: Georgia -130 / Alabama +110
- Over/Under Odds: 52
Why is Georgia favored to beat Alabama?
Between the two SEC powers, Georgia impressed more in their victory over Michigan than the Alabama Crimson Tide impressed in their win over Cincinnati. From the first drive, UGA dominated, beating the #2 Wolverines 34-11.
The margin of victory could have been much worse. But Kirby Smart called off the butt-kicking in the third-quarter.
Not only did UGA look more impressive than Bama, but the Bulldogs left the game relatively unscathed. Alabama didn’t beat Cincinnati at full strength and the Tide won’t be at full strength for the title match.
Offensive lineman Darrian Dalcourt is listed as questionable for the Jan. 10 game with an undisclosed injury. If Dalcourt can’t go, things could get dicey for Bama’s offensive line.
Also, John Metchie III suffered a knee injury while dominating UGA’s secondary. Without Metchie III, Alabama’s offense shouldn’t be nearly as effective passing the ball.
Finally, Georgia saw what Alabama could do. The thinking from oddsmakers is that Kirby Smart and his crew should come up with a game plan to thwart Bryce Young and the Bama offense.
Where are the spread line odds headed?
Georgia opened as a -3 favorite. Within hours the line dropped to Dawgs -2 ½.
At the time of this writing on Monday morning, the betting line is Georgia -2. A full point loss in less than 48 hour is a sign both casual football handicappers and pro handicappers are backing Alabama.
Will the current trend continue?
The trend should continue. One of the things to consider is that UGA doesn’t have great wide receivers. Some of the biggest plays in the passing game against Michigan were to running back James Cook.
Not only that, but although Smart and the Bulldogs will change the strategy from the first game, there’s a question as to what sort of strategy they can change it to.
Alabama rushed for 115 yards in the first game. So even if Dalcourt doesn’t play, the Dawgs will have a tough time stopping Brian Robinson Jr.
Not only that, but Bryce Young rushed for 40 yards and a TD off 3 carries. It’s tough to come up with a strategy to stop the run-pass option (RPO) against a Heisman Trophy quarterback who already torched you for over 400 passing yards.
There’s also the question of what Georgia can do on offense. The Tide stopped a very good Cincinnati team, holding top quarterback Desmond Ridder to a 17-of-32 day. Stetson Bennett looked great against Michigan. But Bennett faces a different defense on Jan. 10.
All of it adds up to the trend continuing. Don’t be surprised if by kick-off the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are either even or Alabama is a slight -1 favorite.