No. 8 Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

The annual game of the year from the SEC East Division is the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” from Jacksonville (neutral site) between Florida and Georgia and the rivals face off on Saturday with the winner a near-lock to win the division. The Dawgs are short favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Florida vs. Georgia NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

• When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
• Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Fla.
• TV: CBS
• Stream: CBS Sports app
• Radio:com
• Opening NCAAF Lines: Georgia -3 (total 52.5)

Last Meeting

UGA beat Florida in Jacksonville last year 24-17. Jake Fromm, now in the NFL, threw for 279 yards and two scores. A 52-yarder to Lawrence Cager in the fourth quarter largely clinched it. It was Georgia’s third consecutive victory in the rivalry and sixth in the past nine years. UF’s Kyle Trask, who is still the Gators’ starting QB, completed 21 of 33 passes for 257 yards and two scores. Georgia converted 12 of 18 chances on third down, while Florida was 2-of-9.

In the all-time series with Florida, Georgia holds a 53-43-2 advantage including 46-40-1 in Jacksonville. Georgia will be looking for its longest winning streak in the series since 1983. This will be the ninth time the teams ever meet on Nov. 6 and UGA leads 6-2 in the previous eight.

The team that has rushed for more yards has won the past 14 in this series.

Why Bet on Florida? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

The Gators (3-1) had a COVID-19 outbreak that postponed their Oct. 17 games vs. LSU but they were able to play last Saturday vs. Missouri and rolled 41-17. Two third-quarter TDS gave UF a 34-7 lead and it never allowed Missouri to get closer than 24 points en route to its 10th consecutive home win.

Until mop-up duty late in the game, the only touchdown scored against the Gators came when redshirt senior quarterback Kyle Trask was hit on a throw, which led to a wounded duck of a pass and a 59-yard interception return touchdown by Missouri’s Jarvis Ware.

The Florida defense entered the game ranked near the bottom of the FBS in rushing and passing defense, but until Missouri’s final two drives – by which time Florida built a 41-10 lead – the Gators allowed just 172 total yards. Florida also limited Missouri to just three conversions on 15 third-down attempts (20 percent).

Trask, a Heisman candidate, completed 21-of-36 passes for 345 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Trask’s 18 touchdown passes through the first four games this season set an SEC record for the most passing touchdowns through the first four games of a season. He became the first quarterback in school history to throw at least four touchdown passes in four consecutive games. Trask is the fourth Gators quarterback since the start of 1996 to throw three-plus passing touchdowns in four consecutive games.

Kadarius Toney’s six touchdown receptions this season are double his career scrimmage touchdowns total entering the 2020 season (three – two receiving, one rushing). Toney also eclipsed his previous season high for receiving yards (260 in 2018) in four games. Kyle Pitts (seven) and Toney (six) have already matched Florida’s two 2019 leaders in receiving touchdowns.

The Gators are coming off their ninth game of 500-plus total yards under Dan Mullen, five of which have come against SEC teams. In the 101 games spanning the 2010-17 seasons, UF had nine 500-yard outings, with five against SEC foes. UF’s 168 points are its highest total in any four-game stretch against SEC teams since 2008, when it totaled 178 in wins over Georgia (49-10), Vanderbilt (42-14), South Carolina (56-6), and Alabama in the SEC Championship Game (31-20).

Why Bet on Georgia? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Georgia (4-1) didn’t look very good last week at Kentucky but did enough for a 14-3 victory – the Dawgs may have been looking forward to this one. Zamir White led the Georgia offense with a career-high 136 yards rushing on 26 carries and a touchdown. Redshirt junior quarterback Stetson Bennett finished 9-of-13, passing for 131 yards and rushing for a touchdown. Bennett, a former walk-on, did throw two picks and now has five in his past two games.

The Georgia defense only allowed 229 yards of offense and 15 first downs, along with causing four sacks and a fumble. Sophomore linebacker Nakobe Dean led the unit with a career-high 14 tackles, while senior safety Richard LeCounte also notched a new career high with 13 tackles and a fumble recovery.

However, that defense will be short-handed for this one with a handful of key guys out, led by LeCounte, an All-American defensive back. He was in a traffic accident on Saturday night and will miss a few games. LeCounte leads Georgia with three interceptions and four pass breakups this season. The senior recorded three forced fumbles and four interceptions in 2019, including two in Georgia’s Sugar Bowl win over Baylor.

LeCounte has 176 tackles, eight interceptions and four forced fumbles in his career. Defensive lineman Julian Rochester, who started the past two games, suffered a season-ending ACL tear against Kentucky.

Georgia leads the SEC and ranks 12th nationally allowing just 16.2 points/game. In the Bulldogs’ four wins this year, they have allowed just a total of 40 points. UGA tops the SEC and ranks fifth nationally in rushing defense (80.0 ypg).

Georgia is 4-3 all-time in the Florida series when both teams are ranked in the top 10. In the Kirby Smart era, Georgia is 9-5 versus top-10 teams. In the 98-game series with Florida, 57 different quarterbacks have started for Georgia. The best record went to Johnny Rauch, who went 4-0 from 1945-48. Most recently, Jake Fromm went 3-0 from 2017-19.

Game Trends

• Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
• Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
• Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.
• Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
• Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.

Expert College Football Prediction

Florida 24, Georgia 20

 

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