The college football season is almost upon us, with the Alabama Crimson Tide once again in as the favorites to emerge as National Champions when all is said and done. The conversation about who might win it all this season is one that we will save for another time. For the purposes of this piece, we are all about talking wins and losses. The bookies have released the win total odds for the season, and it looks as though there are several that we can wager on with some decent certainty. In a separate piece, we will talk about teams that might surpass their win total, but for now, let’s focus on the UNDER. Here are a few teams that we think will fall UNDER their season win total so you can plan your bets against the NCAAF Regular Season Wins Odds.
NCAA Football Win Totals UNDER Picks
Alabama Crimson Tide (11 ½)
As always, Alabama comes into the new season looking to fill the holes left by players who headed off to the NFL Draft in the offseason. It is more than likely that they will indeed fill those holes and have another great season, but it is asking a lot of any team to go perfect throughout the regular season. As good as Alabama is, they are no different in that regard. The SEC has some major players again this season, so thinking that the Crimson Tide will go 12-0 is asking a lot. I am more inclined to think they will lose a game at some point and fall UNDER.
Miami Hurricanes (9)
The Miami Hurricanes rolled out to an 8-1 start last season before getting blown out by North Carolina and losing in their bowl game. They looked much better with a new QB under center and are among the favorites to win the ACC Coastal Division, but I am still of the belief that 9 is stretching things a little. They open the season against Alabama, which will likely be a loss and also have to face UNC on the road later in the season. If they lose that one, then they would need to go unbeaten the rest of the way to eclipse their total. I just don’t see it happening.
Penn State Nittany Lions (8 ½)
It is hard to use last season as any sort of marker given how things went during the pandemic. The Nittany Lions seemed to have some problems adjusting and opened the season with 5 straight losses before bouncing back to win their final 4. While this team has managed 11 wins in 3 of the last 5 seasons, they seem a long way off from the teams that hit those totals. I am not suggesting that they are looking at another losing season in 2021, but I think 9 is the upper limit for this group.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (9 ½)
Taking bowls season into account, the Ragin’ Cajuns delivered 10 wins last season, following up on a 2019 season where they had 11 wins. That is probably enough to convince some bettors to head right to the over, but it pays to take a closer look at last season. In 2020, Louisiana went 6-1 in one-possession games, and while that seems like a gritty team that gets the job done, there is also a little bit of luck required there. Can they ride that luck again this season? I think not.