Analyzing The Top NFL Parlay Picks Of The Week 1 (Sept 11-12)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10) at Atlanta Falcons (8-8)When: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Georgia Dome
NFL Odds: Atlanta Falcons -3 / Over/Under: 48
Despite giving up just 23 points in both regular season meetings in 2015, the Atlanta Falcons lost both games against the Buccaneers last season – which is why I love them to get the big win at home in this matchup. I know Atlanta is just 2-10 ATS in their last dozen games, an equally abysmal 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and an awful 1-8 against the spread against the NFC.
However, Tampa Bay hasn’t been much better in going 0-4 ATS over their last four games a year ago and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in the month of September. The favorite in this NFC South rivalry has covered the spread in five of the last six meetings, making the Falcons the easy pick to win and narrowly cash in!
My Pick: Atlanta 28 Tampa Bay 24
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsWhen: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
NFL Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -7 / Over/Under: 44.5
While I’m not real fond of the seven-point spread in this AFC West divisional showdown, I am going to encourage you to back the Kansas City Chiefs to take down a San Diego Chargers team that looks like it’s ready to underachieve at a high rate in 2016.
The Chiefs have won five straight over the Chargers with two of the last three wins coming by at least a dozen points and the other victory coming by a touchdown. I know the Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, but the Bolts are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings against the Chiefs, making the outcome of this Week 1 matchup closer to a lock selection than anything else.
My Pick: Kansas City 35 San Diego 27
Pittsburgh at WashingtonWhen: September 12, 2016, 07:10
NFL Odds: Pittsburgh -3 / Total: 50
Let’s not beat around the bush. I fully expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to march into the nation’s capitol and walk out with a victory – by laying a complete smackdown on a Washington Redskins team that I believe overachieved last season to win the utterly mediocre NFC East.
The Steelers have gone 7-3-2 ATS in their last dozen road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the month of September. Conversely, while the Redskins have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, Washington is also just 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday Night Football games.
For me, Pittsburgh has the big edge at quarterback and head coach where I don’t think Jay Gruden can carry Mike Tomlin’s clipboard. Pittsburgh wins outright while narrowly covering the NFL betting line.
My Pick: Pittsburgh 28 Washington 24
New York Giants at Dallas CowboysWhen: September 11, 2016, 04:25
Where: AT&T Stadium
NFL Odds: NY Giants -1 / Total: 46
Even with Tiny Romo out of the lineup, I think the Cowboys will give the Giants a very tough way to go as they get back to the power rushing ways that helped them win a dozen games two years ago. While the outcome of this contest could literally go either way, I absolutely love the Over as my top pick for this Week 1 NFC East clash.
The Cowboys and Giants have combined to play Over this game’s 46-point O/U Total in seven straight meetings and nine of the last 10 meetings overall. I suspect Dallas will still score their fair share of points with Prescott leading them and so will the Giants.
With New York going 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the month of September while the Cowboys have gone 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 home games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. With the Giants going 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against Dallas, I think Eli Manning and the G-Men get the narrow outright road win.
My Pick: NY Giants 27 Dallas 24