Cowboys vs Falcons NFL Week 11 Lines & Expert Analysis

Cowboys vs Falcons NFL Week 11 Lines & Expert Analysis

Written by on November 13, 2018

After pulling off one of the bigger surprises in Week 10, Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys will look to record back-to-back road upsets when they visit Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons in an intriguing Week 11 NFC battle that will likely have some serious postseason ramifications for the loser. With both teams desperate, let’s find out which one is offering the best value against their NFL odds.

Cowboys vs Falcons NFL Week 11 Lines & Expert Analysis

  • When: Sunday, November 18 2018 at 1:00 PM ET
  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
  • TV: FOX
  • NFL Week 11 Odds: Atlanta -3 / Total: 48

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 14°C/58°F
  • Humidity: 56%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Wind: 5 mph NW
  • Cloud Cover: 11%
  • Type of Stadium: Retractable

Why Bet On The Dallas Cowboys?

Why should you consider betting Dallas in Week 11? There are a bunch of good reasons to back the ‘Boys NFL betting buffs. First, the Cowboys looked fantastic on both sides of the ball in their surprising, 27-20 upset of the defending super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday night. Dak Prescott had a solid game by passing for 270 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions while running back Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a season-high 151 yards and one touchdown on 19 carries while adding six catches for 36 yards and another score. And speaking of Elliott, another good reason to back Dallas is that Atlanta got torched by Browns rookie running back Nick Chubb for a whopping 176 rushing yards and one score on 20 carries last weekend.

“It was absolutely mandatory that we went and got this win,” Elliott said. “We wanted to keep our hopes up for winning this division and making the playoffs.”

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 20.11
  • Total Yards: 327.44
  • Pass Yards: 194
  • Rush Yards: 133.44
  • Average Score Against: 19
  • Total Yards: 328.56
  • Pass Yards: 231.89
  • Rush Yards: 96.67

Why Bet On The Atlanta Falcons?

Are the Falcons a safe bet for NFL Week 11?

Why should you consider backing the Falcons in Week 11? There are actually some good reasons despite their humbling loss this past weekend. First, Atlanta has the far more explosive offense in this contest in averaging exactly seven points per game more than Dallas (27.1-20.1 ppg). Next, Atlanta was looking good prior to their head-scratching 28-16 road loss against Cleveland on Sunday. The Falcons had won three straight prior to that loss, so it’s not real hard seeing them getting their roller-coaster act together again in this contest.

“It is disappointing because we had been playing better than this the last couple of weeks. We’re better than what we put out there today, but you’re only as good as your last performance. Today was not good enough,” quarterback Matt Ryan said.

Even in their loss to the Browns, Matt Ryan passed for 330 yards with two touchdowns and no picks, so there’s that as well. Oh, did I forget to mention Atlanta is playing at home where they’ve won five of their last seven games? Last but not least, Atlanta has pretty much owned Dallas in recent seasons. The Falcons cruised to an easy 27-7 win at home last year to cover the chalk and the Falcons have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven meetings against the Boys overall.

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 27.11
  • Total Yards: 408.78
  • Pass Yards: 319
  • Rush Yards: 89.78
  • Average Score Against: 28.22
  • Total Yards: 414.55
  • Pass Yards: 294.44
  • Rush Yards: 120.11

NFL Week 11 Betting Trends for Cowboys vs Falcons

  • Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
  • Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 6 games
  • Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games

Cowboys vs Falcons Expert NFL Betting Analysis and Prediction

To get right to the points, while I’m expecting a good game in this one, I like Atlanta to bounce back from whatever fog they were in last weekend to take down a Cowboys team that is very good defensively this season, but still limited offensively.

The Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win while Atlanta has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the month of November. The favorite in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings against Atlanta. I like the Falcons to narrowly cover the chalk as a field goal home fave!

NFL Week 11 Pick: Falcons 24 Cowboys 20