3 of the 4 top seeds in the National Football Conference made it to the NFL Divisional Round. The Green Bay Packers got the bye. So they didn’t have to play. But the Buccaneers and Rams had to win wild card contests. The Bucs beat the Eagles and the Rams beat the Cardinals. The one underdog who prevailed, the San Francisco 49ers, notched their division round ticket after beating the Cowboys. With the NFC’s final four set, it makes sense for us to reassess NFC Championship odds.
Betting Projections for NFC Conference Winners After Wild Card Matches
2022 NFC Championship
- When: Sunday, Jan. 30 at 6:30 pm ET
NFC Championship Odds to Win
Is the longest shot on the board, the San Francisco 49ers, worth a look to win the NFC Championship?
Anybody hoping to score a profit on NFC Championship futures must take the Niners seriously. San Francisco made it to the 2020 Super Bowl, falling to the Chiefs after blowing a 9-point fourth-quarter lead.
The 49ers have a fantastic, and healthy, defense. When Jimmy Garoppolo is on, he’s one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.
The most significant is Jimmy Garoppolo’s sprained shoulder and Nick Bosa’s concussion. If the SF starting quarterback isn’t one-hundred percent, he tends to overcompensate, sailing passes above his receivers’ heads.
Bosa is one of the most important cogs in the 49ers’ defense, which is why San Francisco is a play against to win the NFC. If Jimmy G. and Bosa were one-hundred percent, we’d say consider. With both hurt, +490 makes San Francisco an underlay.
Do Tom Brady and the Bucs or Matthew Stafford and the Rams offer overlay or underlay odds?
Let’s start with the Rams. Los Angeles looked like a Super Bowl contender in the 34-11 beating they handed NFC West rival Arizona this past Monday night.
But before jumping all over the Rams, a deep dive reveals Arizona beat itself. The Cardinals had entered the game losers of 4-of-5. It was apparent from the outset that Kyler Murray and the rest were nervous.
Murray made bad decisions after bad decisions. His throws were off the mark. The defense looked timid. So it’s hard to say if the Rams won that game or if the Cardinals handed it to them.
Brady and the Bucs were magnificent. The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL. All Tampa did was hold the Eagles to 95 rushing yards with 34 of those yards coming on a single carry.
The offense, as we might expect, was clicking like crazy, which is why Tampa is an overlay and the Rams aren’t. As good as Los Angeles’ defensive line is, Aaron Donald and his mates can’t cover up issues in the Rams’ secondary.
Tom Brady should have no trouble carving up Inglewood. If the Rams decide to blitz, it’s over. Brady knows where to throw the ball before the snap, meaning he’ll have already beaten the blitz before the ball lands in his hands.
The Buccaneers should knock out the Rams on Sunday. Tampa, as long as the defense remains healthy, can beat the Packers or 49ers. So Brady and his mates are the overlay.
Is Green Bay worth backing at +130 to won the conference?
Home field means something. Beating Green Bay at Lambeau is almost impossible to accomplish.
But before we can anoint the Packers, we should take a long, hard look at whether Green Bay lucked into home field. The Packers‘ defense didn’t play well down the stretch.
Green Bay allowed 28 or more points in 5-of-7. Cleveland had a shot to beat the Packers in a 24-22 victory. The Packers almost lost to the Ravens even though Lamar Jackson didn’t play and Green Bay had to rally against the Bears in a 45-30 win.
The Packers won’t outscore the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They might outscore the Rams, like they did in a 36-28 victory, but they won’t outscore the Bucs.
Also, if it comes down to Green Bay versus Tampa, forget it. The Bucs are the play because home field is meaningless since Tom Brady plays as well in the cold as he does in the heat. At the odds, Green Bay is a play against.