Tampa Bay Buccaneers Postseason Betting Analysis

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Postseason Betting Analysis

Written by on January 12, 2023

The final game of the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend features Tom Brady and the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the No. 5 seed Dallas Cowboys on Monday night. Could it be the last game for the Bucs or in the NFL for Brady at age 45? Let’s take a look at the Bucs’ postseason chances to make some big money on your NFL Bets.

  • Odds vs. Cowboys: +2.5
  • Odds to win NFC: +1000
  • Odds to win Super Bowl 57: +2000

For the first time in 40 years, the Buccaneers and Cowboys will meet in the postseason. The Cowboys previously sent the Bucs home early from the 1981 and 1982 playoffs. Tampa Bay visited Dallas in Week 1 of the 2022 regular season and won 19-3. The Buccaneers gained 347 yards of offense and only allowed 244. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles was the Cowboys’ defensive backs coach from 2005-07.

Monday’s game will be the first matchup in playoff history between a quarterback and team with at least five Super Bowl titles each. Of course, Brady has seven Super Bowl rings, six with New England and one with Tampa Bay. TB12 and the Cowboys both have 35 playoff wins all-time but Dallas has only three since Brady entered the league.

Brady suffered his first career losing season with Tampa Bay finishing at 8-9 following a loss in Atlanta in Week 18, but the Bucs pulled Brady and other starters after barely a quarter with nothing to play for. Brady completed 13 of 17 pass attempts (76.5 percent) and threw his 25th touchdown pass in the loss. Brady recorded 490 completions this season, surpassing the mark he set last year (485) for the most completions in a season in NFL history. He now has 17 career seasons with at least 25 touchdown passes and surpassed Peyton Manning (16 seasons) for the most such seasons in NFL history.

Brady enters the 2022 postseason as the league’s all-time playoff leader in games started by a quarterback (47), wins by a starting quarterback (35), passing yards (13,049), touchdown passes (86), Super Bowl titles (seven) and Super Bowl MVPs (five). He is looking to become the first quarterback ever to win multiple Super Bowls with two different franchises.

Brady’s opposing quarterback on Monday is Dak Prescott, who will be making his fifth-career postseason start. In each of his past three starts in the playoffs, Prescott has recorded both a touchdown pass and a rushing touchdown and can become the sixth quarterback ever to record both a touchdown pass and rushing touchdown in four career postseason games. Brady (five games) and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (four), who will be in action next weekend, are among the group Prescott can join.

However, Prescott threw 11 interceptions in his final seven regular-season games. After coming into the campaign with a career interception rate of 1.7%, he has thrown picks on 3.8% of his passes this season. Over the past three weeks, the Cowboys’ running game has slowed to a trickle, running the ball 90 times for just 266 yards.

Whether Bucs Pro Bowl tackle Tristan Wirfs is able to neutralize Cowboys star linebacker Micah Parsons could play a significant role in which team advances. Led by Parsons, just the third player since 1982 with at least 13 sacks in each of his first two NFL seasons, Dallas ranked second in the NFL this season with a sack on 9.82 percent of opponents’ pass attempts. Wirfs and Tampa Bay’s offensive line, however, led the league by allowing sacks on only 2.93 percent of the Buccaneers’ pass attempts.

Under coordinator Dan Quinn, the Dallas defense ranks fifth in the league in points allowed (20.1), is tied for third in the league in sacks (54.0), leads the NFL in takeaways with 33 and is first in the NFL in quarterback pressure percentage this season (35.0). Parsons had 13.5 sacks, 27 quarterback hits (both top seven in the NFL) and tallied 30 quarterback pressures in 2022 (third in the NFL). Defensive end Dorance Armstrong reached new heights with 8.5 sacks and 15 quarterback hits – both second on the team.

It’s possible the Bucs could get Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen back from injury for this game. Jensen suffered a serious knee injury on the second day of training camp, but returned to practice recently in an attempt to make a potential return in the postseason. Robert Hainsey has been starting in Jensen’s place but left the loss in Atlanta in Week 18 after 13 offensive snaps and did not return. It’s not clear if Hainsey can play Monday.

Bucs Expert Pick

Tampa Bay advances but loses in divisional round


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