Next Gen ATP Finals Odds, Top 3 Players and Betting Analysis

Next Gen ATP Finals Odds, Top 3 Players and Betting Analysis

Created in 2017, the Next Gen ATP Finals is a year-end tournament that involves the top-ranked under-21 players on tour. The five-day tournament features two round-robin groups of four players, with the top two players in each group advancing to the semifinals.

Winning the Next Gen ATP Finals is a sign that a player has arrived as a top talent on tour and is ready to contend for major tournaments. Carlos Alcaraz, the current world No. 1, won last year’s event. The other three winners are Jannik Sinner (2019), Stefanos Tsitsipas (2018), and Chung Hyeon (2017). Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur have been finalists. Let’s take a look at our betting preview for the upcoming 2022 Next Gen ATP Finals so you can plan your bets against the ATP Odds.

Tennis Betting Preview for the Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals Event

Holger Rune headlines this year’s field. Lorenzo Musetti, Jack Draper, and Brandon Nakashima are all legitimate contenders to win. There’s a wide gap in pedigree between the top four and bottom four players, however. The other four are Jiri Lehecka (world No. 75), Dominic Stricker (world No. 116), Chun-Hsin Tseng (world No. 90), and Francesco Passaro (world No. 122).

Outright Odds

  • Holger Rune +110
  • Lorenzo Musetti +265
  • Brandon Nakashima +400
  • Jack Draper +475
  • Jiri Lehecka +1700
  • Dominic Stricker +1900
  • Hsin Chun Tseng +3600
  • Francesco Passaro +4300

Top 3 Betting Favorites

  • Holger Rune

A 19-year-old Dane, Rune finished this season ranked No. 18 in the world, rising seven spots after winning the Stockholm Open. He subsequently reached the finals of the Swiss Basel Indoors, beating de Minaur and Roberto Bautista Agut before losing to Felix Auger-Aliassime, who won his third title in a row. Rune has two titles this season.

Rune finished the year with a 33-24 record. His best Grand Slam result was a quarter-final finish at Roland Garros, where he lost to eventual finalist Casper Ruud. Rune is playing at a much higher level than most players in the Next Gen ATP Finals at this point, having won 12 of his last 15 matches.

  • Lorenzo Musetti

Overshadowed by fellow Italian phenom Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti had a solid season at just 20 years old. The world No. 23 finished the season with a 30-24 record and won titles in Naples and Hamburg. Musetti is coming off of a loss in the first round of the Swiss Basel Indoors, however. 

Coincidentally, Musetti hasn’t played much against his competition at the Next Gen. He lost to Lehecka at Rotterdam in February but defeated Passaro in the finals of a Challenger Tour event in Italy in May. He has a victory over world No. 1 Alcaraz and has proven he can play well in high-pressure situations.

  • Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima has, at times, been the best player in this group, but he has struggled as of late, hence the higher betting odds. He dropped six spots to world No. 50 after losing in the second round of the Swiss Indoors Basel and is just 3-3 in his last six matches. He won in San Diego in August but, before that, had lost four of six. 

Nakashima is a streaky player and, if he gets hot, could cause trouble for Rune or Musetti. He can definitely win, but he’s more of a wildcard.

Betting Opportunities

This is really a three or four-player tournament, as it’s unlikely anyone outside of Rune, Musetti, Nakashima, or Draper win. Draper has played less this season, so perhaps he has more gas in the tank, but he’s also struggled against higher-caliber players.

Musetti is the preferred pick here, as he’s in a group with Draper, Tseng, and Stricker. He should have no trouble advancing and might be fresher than the other two who advance from the other group. 

Pick: Lorenzo Musetti +265


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