When talking about a favorite in the NBA — or any sport — we’re talking about the team that oddsmakers expect to win a matchup.
Betting NBA favorites can be profitable, but the odds aren’t always valuable, and favorites don’t always win.
Understanding expectations, matchup dynamics, and ATS performance is essential before backing the chalk.
The best NBA betting strategies involve evaluating multiple factors: matchup analytics, travel fatigue, motivation, expectations, and how consistently a team covers the spread.
Value, timing, and situational awareness all come into play, so let’s break down how to find the best opportunities when betting NBA favorites.
Quick Definition: NBA Favorites
NBA favorite: the team that oddsmakers expect to win, reflected by negative odds (e.g. -180) or laying points on the spread (e.g. -5.5).
NBA underdog: the team expected to lose, reflected by plus money (e.g. +150) or getting points on the spread (e.g. +5.5).
Table of Contents
- Is It Profitable to Bet on NBA Favorites?
- What Strategies Work Best When Betting NBA Favorites?
- How Do NBA Point Spreads Work When the Favorite Is Heavily Favored?
- Should I Bet NBA Favorites Early or Wait for Line Movement?
- What Factors Determine Whether an NBA Favorite Has Value?
- How Often Do NBA Favorites Cover the Spread?
- Is It Better to Bet NBA Favorites on the Moneyline or Against the Spread?
- Which NBA Situations Make Favorites Riskier to Bet On?
- What Mistakes Should Bettors Avoid When Wagering on NBA Favorites?
- FAQ
- Final Thoughts
Is It Profitable to Bet on NBA Favorites?
Rather than thinking about favorites, you should think about NBA betting value.
Favorites win around 65–70% of games straight up, but simply betting every favorite long-term will lose money.
This is because the odds reflect public expectations — often overpricing elite teams.
Some favorites carry inflated lines because of reputation or star talent, while others have more manageable expectations.
Identifying favorites with reasonable lines and low public inflation is where long-term profit comes from.
Pros & Cons of Betting NBA Favorites
| Edge | Risk |
|---|---|
| Higher straight-up win rate | Odds often overinflated by public money |
| Predictable in strong mismatch spots | Poor value when laying big spreads or heavy juice |
| Easier to handicap with clear talent gaps | One upset can wipe out multiple small-profit wins |
| Great in specific situational spots (rest, injuries) | Books adjust quickly once trends become obvious |
Use favorites selectively — when the numbers and situation both support the price, not just because they’re “supposed to win.”
What Strategies Work Best When Betting NBA Favorites?
Evaluating matchups, monitoring injury reports, and studying the schedule can help you find NBA moneyline picks with real value.
Old-school betting principles still matter:
- Expectations — Teams with higher expectations (like the 2018 Cavs or modern contenders) often have inflated lines.
- Are They Covering Consistently? — Some favorites win games but consistently fail to cover the spread.
- Home vs.
Road ATS
— Some favorites dominate ATS at home but struggle on the road. - Matchup Style — Even strong favorites can face a “bad matchup” where their strengths don’t align well.
Combining modern analytics with these classic principles will sharpen your NBA handicapping strategies.
Pro Tip: Checklist Before Betting a Favorite
- Injury report: Have all key starters been confirmed in?
- Schedule spot: Is this a back-to-back or end-of-road-trip game?
- Motivation: Does the favorite still have something to play for?
- Matchup edges: Do they exploit a clear weakness (rebounding, pace, shooting)?
- Price vs. edge: Does your projected win probability justify the spread or moneyline?
How Do NBA Point Spreads Work When the Favorite Is Heavily Favored?
Large NBA point spreads can be deceptive.
A heavily favored team may lead by 20+ points, only to empty the bench and allow a backdoor cover.
This is why blindly betting big favorites ATS is dangerous.
Look for ATS tendencies showing which teams lose focus late, rest starters, or allow late scoring runs.
Warning: Classic Backdoor Cover Scenario
You lay -11.5 with a big favorite. They lead by 22 points going into the 4th quarter, then rest starters. The underdog’s bench plays hard, cuts the lead to 9, and you lose your spread bet despite betting the clear better team.
Always ask: “Is this team likely to keep their foot on the gas, or just aim for a simple win?”
Should I Bet NBA Favorites Early or Wait for Line Movement?
Sharp bettors often target favorites early — especially if the team is rested.
Public bettors jump in later, which can artificially move the line.
Bet early when:
- The favorite is coming off rest
- You expect injury news to favor the favorite
- You anticipate the public driving the line upward
When to Bet Favorites Early vs. Late
| Bet Early | Wait / Bet Late |
|---|---|
| Rested favorite before the market reacts | Injury news still uncertain or pending |
| You expect public money to push the line against you | You expect buyback or sharp money to correct an overreaction |
| Clear matchup edge not yet priced in | Highly public games where casual money floods in close to tip |
Use timing as part of your edge — not an afterthought.
What Factors Determine Whether an NBA Favorite Has Value?
Value comes from contextual and analytical factors such as:
- Injuries — Missing starters can shift the true line drastically.
- Coaching tendencies — Some coaches rest players early, others push hard to cover.
- Home-court advantage — Powerful, but often overpriced.
- Fatigue / Travel — End-of-road-trip favorites are notoriously unreliable.
- Efficiency Metrics — Adjusted Net Rating, pace, and matchup-specific analytics reveal hidden value.
How Often Do NBA Favorites Cover the Spread?
Favorites win outright often, but they cover the spread only around 49–52% of the time — barely above random chance.
This is why ATS betting requires selectivity and matchup analysis.
Knowing whether a team is:
- Winning but not covering
- Covering consistently in specific situations
- Overvalued because of public perception
…helps determine whether they deserve your bet.
Favorites: Win Rate vs. Cover Rate (Illustrative)
| Market | Win % (SU) | Cover % (ATS) |
|---|---|---|
| All Favorites | ≈ 66% | ≈ 50% |
| Home Favorites | Higher SU | ≈ 51% ATS |
| Road Favorites | Lower SU | ≈ 47–49% ATS |
These ranges show why blindly betting every favorite against the spread is rarely profitable over a full season.
How to Bet NBA Favorites in 3 Simple Steps
Evaluate Value
- Compare the line to your own projection.
- Avoid favorites with inflated public prices.
- Look for fair juice, not just “likely winners.”
Check the Spot
- Back-to-backs and long road trips add risk.
- Watch for look-ahead and load management games.
- Confirm motivation: standings, seeding, rivalry.
Choose Bet Type
- Moneyline when upset risk is low but spread is sharp.
- Spread when you expect a multi-possession win.
- Sometimes the best play is to pass.
Is It Better to Bet NBA Favorites on the Moneyline or Against the Spread?
Favorites win straight up more frequently than they cover ATS, but the moneyline can be risky because the payouts are lower.
A single upset can erase multiple wins.
Spread bets offer better returns but come with higher variance.
Choosing between them depends on matchup confidence and the size of the line.
Moneyline vs. Spread: Simple Comparison
| Favorite Line | Moneyline Price | Implied Win % | When It Makes Sense |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | -160 | ≈ 61.5% | Spread if you expect a clear multi-possession win |
| -7.5 | -260 | ≈ 72.2% | Moneyline only if upset risk is very low |
| -11.5 | -450 | ≈ 81.8% | Often a pass — high juice, plus backdoor cover risk |
Compare your own projected win probability to these implied percentages to decide whether the spread or moneyline offers better value.
Which NBA Situations Make Favorites Riskier to Bet On?
Favorites become risky in several well-known situations:
- Last game of a long road trip
- Load management nights
- Look-ahead games before a big matchup
- Teams that historically fade late and allow backdoor covers
Recognizing these spots increases your chance of staying profitable.
What Mistakes Should Bettors Avoid When Wagering on NBA Favorites?
Common errors include:
- Betting every favorite blindly
- Overvaluing home court
- Ignoring injury news
- Chasing losses by defaulting to favorites
- Failing to evaluate ATS history and matchup dynamics
Red Flag Situations for NBA Favorites
- Sandwich games: A soft opponent between two tough matchups.
- Travel-heavy stretches: 3+ road games in 4–5 nights.
- Secured seeding: Late-season games where the favorite has little incentive.
- Public darlings: Teams that attract casual money no matter the price.
FAQ
- Are NBA favorites a good bet for beginners?
Not exactly. Favorites win often, but the odds attached to them don’t always provide enough value to be profitable long-term.
Sportsbooks shade lines toward popular teams, so new bettors can overpay for “safe” picks without realizing the expected return isn’t strong. - Should I avoid double-digit favorites?
Usually, yes. Large spreads are vulnerable to backdoor covers, especially when favorites rest starters late.
Even dominant teams rarely maintain blowout margins for a full 48 minutes, making big numbers harder to trust. - Are road favorites riskier than home favorites?
Yes. Travel, unfamiliar courts, and schedule fatigue all work against road favorites.
They may still win, but the odds and spreads often overestimate their true edge, making them less reliable against the number. - How does load management affect NBA favorites?
Significantly. Star players may sit out unexpectedly or play limited minutes, reducing a favorite’s reliability.
Always check injury and rest reports before betting, because even small changes to the lineup impact the spread and moneyline. - Do favorites perform better in playoffs?
Straight-up, yes, because rotations tighten and effort increases.
Against the spread, not always.
Playoff matchups are more balanced, and public action can inflate lines, meaning favorites often win without covering.
Final Thoughts
Favorites can be profitable, but only when you identify value, understand expectations, and recognize situational factors.
Study NBA favorites odds, track analytics, and make selective, educated wagers.
When you’re ready, head to MyBookie and turn your insights into winning bets.
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About the Author
- Henry Watkins
- Henry is originally from Scotland but now resides in Metro Atlanta with his chef wife Penny. As well as working as a Sports freelance writer, he also writes horror fiction. Watson is the author of Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.
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