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Last updated: September, 2026
Our writers’ featured 2026 NFL Week 1 picks include the Seahawks -3.5, Texans -1.5, Panthers moneyline, Broncos moneyline, Ravens moneyline, Eagles -5, Jaguars -8.5, Browns vs. Jaguars Over 40.5, Falcons vs. Steelers Under 42, and Buccaneers vs. Bengals Over 50.5.
D.S. Williamson is backing Seattle against the spread as his opening-night play, while Henry Watkins builds his featured parlay with the Ravens moneyline, Eagles -5, and Browns vs. Jaguars Over 40.5. Their cards also produce two direct disagreements: Carolina vs. Chicago and Denver vs. Kansas City.
2026 NFL Week 1 Picks
D.S. Williamson: Seahawks -3.5, Texans -1.5, Panthers moneyline, and Broncos moneyline.
Henry Watkins: Ravens moneyline, Bears moneyline, Chiefs moneyline, Eagles -5, Jaguars -8.5, Cowboys -3, Browns vs. Jaguars Over 40.5, Falcons vs. Steelers Under 42, and Buccaneers vs. Bengals Over 50.5.
Henry’s parlay: Ravens moneyline, Eagles -5, and Browns vs. Jaguars Over 40.5.
2026 NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions
D.S. Williamson and Henry Watkins evaluate the opening-week matchups through roster changes, injuries, line play, defensive strength, offensive personnel, expected game scripts, and the available betting lines. Their Week 1 cards cover moneylines, point spreads, game totals, and a three-leg parlay.
Before reviewing the individual predictions, compare the writers’ recommended numbers with the latest NFL Week 1 betting odds and lines. A spread, total, or moneyline can move after publication and change the value of the original selection.
NFL Week 1 Picks at a Glance
- Patriots at Seahawks: Seahawks -3.5 — D.S. Williamson
- Bills at Texans: Texans -1.5 — D.S. Williamson
- Bears at Panthers: Panthers moneyline — D.S. Williamson
- Broncos at Chiefs: Broncos moneyline — D.S. Williamson
- Ravens at Colts: Ravens moneyline — Henry Watkins
- Bears at Panthers: Bears moneyline — Henry Watkins
- Broncos at Chiefs: Chiefs moneyline — Henry Watkins
- Commanders at Eagles: Eagles -5 — Henry Watkins
- Browns at Jaguars: Jaguars -8.5 — Henry Watkins
- Cowboys at Giants: Cowboys -3 — Henry Watkins
- Browns at Jaguars: Over 40.5 — Henry Watkins
- Falcons at Steelers: Under 42 — Henry Watkins
- Buccaneers at Bengals: Over 50.5 — Henry Watkins
Read D.S. Williamson’s picks or jump to Henry Watkins’ picks.
Where Our NFL Writers Disagree
Bears at Panthers: D.S. Williamson backs Carolina on the moneyline, while Henry Watkins selects Chicago to win outright.
Broncos at Chiefs: D.S. Williamson takes Denver to win outright, while Henry Watkins expects Kansas City to protect its home field.
These opposing selections reflect different evaluations of the same matchup. Compare each writer’s reasoning with the latest odds before making a decision.
D.S. Williamson | #MyBookie NFL Analyst
D.S. Williamson’s four featured NFL Week 1 picks are Seattle -3.5, Houston -1.5, Carolina to win outright, and Denver to win outright.
His card emphasizes defensive strength, offensive line play, injuries, roster changes, and the effect of home-field advantage on the opening week.
D.S. Williamson’s Top NFL Week 1 Picks
- Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. New England Patriots
- Houston Texans -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
- Carolina Panthers Moneyline vs. Chicago Bears
- Denver Broncos Moneyline at Kansas City Chiefs
Wednesday, September 9
NFL Week 1 Pick — New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5
New England added A.J. Brown, but the Patriots open against the team that beat them in the Super Bowl. D.S. Williamson expects the matchup to be shaped by two strong defenses, with Seattle holding the larger edge on that side of the ball.
The Seahawks enter the season with a changed backfield after Kenneth Walker III’s departure. Rookie Jadarian Price may need time to settle into the role, but D.S. believes he can make an impact in the opener.
New England left tackle Will Campbell also remains a concern in a difficult road matchup against Seattle’s defense.
D.S. Williamson backs the Seahawks to win by more than 3.5 points, even with the hook.
Sunday, September 13
NFL Week 1 Pick — Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Pick: Houston Texans -1.5
Buffalo enters the season among the leading Super Bowl contenders, but D.S. Williamson questions whether the Bills’ defense will maintain the same level following Sean McDermott’s departure.
Josh Allen and Joe Brady give Buffalo a dangerous offensive foundation. The challenge is facing one of the league’s strongest defensive units on the road.
Houston also brings an improving offensive line and a backfield led by David Montgomery and Woody Marks into the matchup.
D.S. Williamson expects the Texans to win and cover the 1.5-point spread.
NFL Week 1 Pick — Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Carolina Panthers Moneyline | Spread Context: Carolina +3, with some movement to +2.5
The line has moved toward Carolina at some sportsbooks, and D.S. Williamson sees several reasons to support the Panthers.
Chicago could be thin at wide receiver if Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are limited, leaving Caleb Williams with fewer established options. The Bears may also need to lean heavily on D’Andre Swift if Kyle Monangai is unavailable.
On the other side, D.S. expects the connection between Bryce Young and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan to play an important role.
D.S. Williamson prefers the Panthers moneyline rather than taking the points.
Monday, September 14
NFL Week 1 Pick — Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Denver Broncos Moneyline | Spread Context: Denver moved from +3 to +2.5
The market has moved toward Denver, and D.S. Williamson believes the matchup supports that adjustment.
He rates the Broncos’ defense as a top-five unit and views their offensive line as one of the NFL’s best. Denver also added Jaylen Waddle to a receiving group featuring Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin.
The Broncos’ backfield depth, including rookie Jonah Coleman, gives D.S. another reason to favor Denver despite the road setting.
D.S. Williamson backs the Broncos to beat the Chiefs outright.
Henry Watkins | #MyBookie NFL Analyst
Henry Watkins divides his NFL Week 1 card into moneyline, spread, and totals selections before combining three picks in his featured parlay.
His parlay pairs the Ravens moneyline with Eagles -5 and Browns vs. Jaguars Over 40.5.
Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 Moneyline Picks
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Baltimore Ravens Moneyline
Baltimore begins a new coaching era on the road in Indianapolis. Henry Watkins expects the Ravens to handle the transition well enough to open the season with a victory.
Henry backs Baltimore to win outright.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Chicago Bears Moneyline
Henry Watkins stays with the road team and selects Chicago to beat Carolina. This is one of the week’s clearest disagreements between the two MyBookie writers, as D.S. Williamson is backing the Panthers moneyline.
Henry expects the Bears to leave Carolina with the win.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline
Henry Watkins expects Kansas City to begin a bounce-back season with a home victory over Denver.
This is the second direct split between the writers because D.S. Williamson is taking Denver to win outright.
Henry backs the Chiefs to win at home.
Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 Spread Picks
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5
Washington made significant changes on defense, which Henry Watkins believes could create problems against a strong Philadelphia offense.
Henry expects the Eagles to win and cover the five-point spread.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5
Cleveland’s quarterback situation gives Henry little confidence that the Browns can keep pace in Jacksonville.
Henry backs the Jaguars to win by nine or more points.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 | Preferred Number: Dallas -2.5
Henry expects a close NFC East matchup and believes Dallas can edge New York. However, the key number matters here.
Henry leans toward the Cowboys at -3 but would be more comfortable betting Dallas if the line moves to -2.5.
Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 Totals Picks
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Over 40.5
Henry does not expect Cleveland to produce a great offensive performance, but he believes the 40.5-point total is low enough for Jacksonville to help push the game Over.
Henry backs Over 40.5 total points.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Under 42
Henry is not sold on either offense entering Week 1 and expects the defenses to control much of the matchup.
Henry backs Under 42 total points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Over 50.5
Henry expects Tampa Bay and Cincinnati to produce one of the week’s more offense-driven matchups, even with a total above 50 points.
Henry backs Over 50.5 total points.
Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 Parlay
- Baltimore Ravens Moneyline
- Philadelphia Eagles -5
- Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Over 40.5
All three legs must win for the parlay to cash. The payout and implied probability will depend on the current price of each leg when the wager is placed.
Because moneylines, spreads, and totals can change throughout the week, bettors should compare each prediction with the current NFL betting odds and lines before placing an individual wager or combining selections in a parlay.
What Are the Critical Betting Factors for Choosing NFL Picks?
The most important factors for choosing NFL picks are the available odds, injuries and inactive players, quarterback play, offensive and defensive line matchups, coaching and scheme changes, rest and travel, weather, market movement, and the expected game script. A prediction identifies the likely outcome; a bet must also account for whether the available price offers enough value.
NFL Pick Evaluation Checklist
- Current odds: Compare the writer’s recommended number with the line currently offered by the sportsbook.
- Key numbers: Half-point moves around common NFL margins such as three and seven can materially change a spread bet.
- Injuries and inactive players: Confirm the status of quarterbacks, offensive linemen, pass catchers, running backs, pass rushers, and defensive backs.
- Line play: Evaluate whether either offensive line has a meaningful protection or run-blocking advantage against the opposing front.
- Matchup and scheme: Consider how each offense attacks the defensive coverages, pressure packages, and personnel it will face.
- Expected game script: Estimate which team is most likely to lead, play from behind, control possession, or create a faster scoring environment.
- Rest, travel, and weather: Account for short weeks, long trips, international games, wind, rain, heat, and playing surface.
- Market movement: Determine whether new information caused the move and whether the current number still supports the original pick.
- Bet type: Decide whether the analysis fits the moneyline, spread, total, team total, player prop, or live market best.
Bettors who need help understanding moneylines, point spreads, totals, implied probability, parlays, or line movement can review the MyBookie Betting Academy before evaluating the writers’ weekly selections.
When comparing weekly predictions, start with the matchup and then evaluate the price. A team can be the likely winner without covering the spread, while an attractive underdog can lose the game and still cash a spread ticket. Bettors can review the broader NFL betting guide for more help understanding the league’s main markets.
Compare the Latest NFL Odds
Check the current moneylines, point spreads, totals, and available props for every featured matchup before deciding whether a writer’s original betting number still offers value.
View NFL Betting OddsCommon Mistakes When Following Weekly NFL Picks
- Betting a pick after the line has moved past the writer’s recommended number
- Treating a moneyline prediction and a point-spread prediction as the same bet
- Ignoring injury updates and official inactive lists
- Building a parlay without considering the price and probability of every leg
- Increasing stake size to recover losses from earlier games
- Assuming every writer should reach the same conclusion on a close matchup
Before placing a wager, review the applicable sports betting rules to understand how moneylines, point spreads, totals, parlays, postponed games, and other NFL markets are graded.
2026 NFL Week 1 Picks FAQs
What are D.S. Williamson’s NFL Week 1 picks?
D.S. Williamson selects the Seahawks -3.5 against the Patriots, Texans -1.5 against the Bills, Panthers moneyline against the Bears, and Broncos moneyline against the Chiefs.
What are Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 moneyline picks?
Henry Watkins backs the Ravens to beat the Colts, the Bears to beat the Panthers, and the Chiefs to beat the Broncos.
What are Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 spread picks?
Henry Watkins selects the Eagles -5 against the Commanders, Jaguars -8.5 against the Browns, and Cowboys -3 against the Giants. He would prefer Dallas at -2.5 if that number becomes available.
What are Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 totals picks?
Henry Watkins selects Browns vs. Jaguars Over 40.5, Falcons vs. Steelers Under 42, and Buccaneers vs. Bengals Over 50.5.
What is Henry Watkins’ NFL Week 1 parlay?
Henry Watkins’ featured three-leg parlay combines the Ravens moneyline, Eagles -5, and Browns vs. Jaguars Over 40.5.
Which NFL Week 1 picks do the writers disagree on?
The writers disagree on Bears vs. Panthers and Broncos vs. Chiefs. D.S. Williamson backs Carolina and Denver to win outright, while Henry Watkins selects Chicago and Kansas City.
Why can an NFL pick change after publication?
Injuries, inactive players, weather, roster news, and betting action can move a moneyline, spread, or total. A pick made at one number may offer less value after the odds change.
Put This Week’s NFL Picks Into Action
Compare the latest prices for every D.S. Williamson and Henry Watkins selection, from individual moneylines, spreads, and totals to the featured three-leg parlay.
View NFL Betting OddsThe picks in this article reflect each writer’s opinion at the listed betting number and do not guarantee a winning result.
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