Justin Verlander: Met’s Update for MLB Betting Odds

Justin Verlander: Met’s Update for MLB Betting Odds

It’s a potential World Series preview on Tuesday when the Tampa Bay Rays, the team with the best record in the majors hosts the struggling but still very loaded New York Mets in the home debut of big offseason addition Justin Verlander. Let’s look at the following betting analysis for this game, so you can bet against MLB odds.


Justin Verlander Set For Mets’ Home Debut vs. Rays | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis


How to Bet Tampa Bay at New York MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Yonny Chirinos/Justin Verlander
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Mets -155, Rays +135 (total 8.5)


Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Rays play their second series in a row in New York, splitting four over the weekend with the Yankees. Arguably Tampa Bay’s top hitter, first baseman Yandy Diaz, might not be available Tuesday after leaving Sunday’s game in the first inning due to left groin tightness. Diaz extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a leadoff double and took third on a groundout by Wander Franco. As he advanced, Diaz slipped running past the bag but stayed in and scored on a Brandon Lowe groundout.

Diaz noted he had been dealing with it for a while. He apparently will not head to the injured list but still may sit Tuesday. Diaz has been crushing the ball to the tune of a .321/.429/.593 slash line over 168 plate appearances, and his 188 wRC+ ranks second among all qualified batters. Long known for his ability to make hard contact, Diaz’s 95.7% average exit velocity, 13% barrel rate, and 58.3% hard-hit ball rate are all career bests. He has 10 homers and 24 RBIs.

Tampa Bay’s 23 go-ahead home runs lead the AL and trail only the Dodgers (24) for the most in MLB. A total of 58 of the Rays’ MLB-leading 81 total homers have been solo shots.

Closer Pete Fairbanks will return Tuesday as he was activated from the 15-day injured list. The 29-year-old right-hander, who has fired 7 2/3 scoreless innings this season (eight appearances), is expected to resume closing duties for the Rays with Jason Adam shifting back into a setup role.

The Rays’ bullpen had a 3.10 ERA at the end of April but has a 3.63 mark in 13 May games. Right-handers Andrew Kittredge (Tommy John surgery) and Shawn Armstrong (neck) have not appeared in a game in 2023, while lefty Garrett Cleavinger sprained his right knee on May 8 and could miss the rest of the season.

Jalen Beeks will serve as the opener ahead of primary pitcher Yonny Chirinos on Tuesday. Beeks has gone at least two innings in five appearances this season, including his last two, but he’ll be pitching on just two days’ rest Tuesday.

Chirinos (1-1) yielded two runs across five innings in a loss to the Orioles last Wednesday. The right-hander also issued four free passes while recording a lone strikeout. He was able to keep the Orioles off the board until his fourth inning of work. Still, he ran into trouble after allowing back-to-back hits and a free pass before Adam Frazier’s grounder to second base, allowing Adley Rutschman to score. The 29-year-old carries a 2.22 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9/10 K/BB ratio across 24 1/3 innings (six appearances) into Tuesday.

Bet Rays to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


Why Bet on New York?

The Mets have failed to win their past six series. They had a chance on Monday in Washington but lost 10-3 to split the four-game set. New York has lost nine of its last 13 and dropped 15 of 21 since its 14-7 start. The Mets are 0-5-2 in their last seven series and have not won consecutive games since taking three in a row from April 19-21. Big-spending New York fell to fourth in the NL East, 1 1/2 games ahead of last-place Washington.

“It’s not where we need to be,” acknowledges reigning batting champ Jeff McNeil, whose .264 average is well off his .305 lifetime mark. “We need to turn it around.”

The Mets have been outscored 38-9 in the first inning this year. The Mets are 7-19 when their opponent scores first. On the other hand, the Mets are 13-2 when scoring first this season. Their .867 winning percentage when scoring first ranks second in the majors.

The bullpen has been pretty solid led by Jeff Brigham, who has not allowed a run in his last six appearances. He has allowed two hits, a walk and struck out six in those 6.0 innings. Overall, Brigham has not allowed a run in 10 of his 12 appearances this season, posting a 2.77 ERA (4 ER/13.0 IP). He has struck out 16 and allowed six hits and four walks in 13.0 innings this year.

Justin Verlander (1-1, 2.25 ERA) makes his home debut on Tuesday – he started the year on the injured list and then made his first two on the road. Verlander won last Wednesday in Cincinnati, throwing 7.0 innings and allowing one run on two hits, two walks and one strikeout. He retired 18 of his last 19 batters faced.

In two career starts as a visitor at Citi Field, Verlander is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA (5 ER/10.0 IP). On June 29, 2022, Verlander threw 8.0 shutout innings on two hits, one walk and six strikeouts in an Astros 2-0 victory over New York. He is 10-4 with a 3.17 ERA in 20 career starts vs. Tampa Bay but hasn’t faced the Rays since Aug. 27, 2019, while with Houston.

Bet Mets to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


Game Trends

  • Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games following an off day.
  • Rays are 21-8 in their last 29 during game 1 of a series.
  • Rays are 40-12 in their last 52 vs. National League East.
  • Mets are 45-22 in their last 67 during game 1 of a series.
  • Mets are 6-14 in their last 20 overall.
  • Rays are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Expert Prediction

Mets 4, Rays 3


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