What we found out very quickly last week was that the AP Poll and the College Football Playoff rankings are absolutely not the same thing. The Cincinnati Bearcats are currently listed at #2 in the AP Poll, but in the rankings that matter, the Committee has them sitting outside of a playoff spot. Whether they stay there remains to be seen, as this season has been about as unpredictable as it gets. Do any of us really expect the top 4 as it looks now to be the same once the regular season comes to a close? For now, all we need to do is focus on Week 11, and we have to say that there are some huge games coming our way this weekend. We are sitting below .500 with our ATS picks this season at 14-15-1. Let’s see if we can get over that mark on Saturday so you can continue betting against the NCAAF odds.
Week 11 ATS Picks for the 2021 Season | NCAA Football Betting
Northwestern Wildcats (+24) at Wisconsin Badgers
The Big Ten Conference is a bit of a mess in terms of figuring out who will be in the Conference Championship game later this season. This is particularly true in the West Division, where we have no less than 4 teams sitting with a 4-2 record in conference play. The Wisconsin Badgers are one of those teams and look like a strong favorite against Northwestern, who has gone just 1-5 SU in conference play. We are, though, looking at the point spread here, and I have to say that those 24 points look like just a bit too much. While the Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games overall, they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the Badgers. Wisconsin has covered in 4 of their last 5, but I think they come up a little short here.
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans (-13)
Whenever a team registers a massive win, there is always the chance of a letdown the following week. That is exactly what happened to the Michigan State Spartans in Week 10. After a huge win over Michigan, a victory that got them into a playoff spot, the Spartans came out and played a stinker in a loss to Purdue last weekend. The question now is how they will respond to that defeat, because they are still very much in the conversation for both the playoffs and an appearance in the Conference Championship Game. The Spartans have been a good bet this season, going 6-2-1 ATS. The Maryland Terrapins have now failed to cover the spread in 8 straight games versus conference foes.
Texas A&M Aggies (- 2 ½) at Ole Miss Rebels
As it stands right now, the Alabama Crimson Tide appear to have the inside track on the SEC West Division and a spot in the SEC Conference Championship Game. That said, there is a scenario where they can be pipped at the post, but for that to happen, they would need to drop 1 more game, while the Texas A&M Aggies would need to go unbeaten the rest of the way. The Aggies have been rolling of late, but they have a tough road game against Ole Miss coming this weekend. The Aggies have been a great road bet, covering the spread in each of their last 5 games away from home. Ole Miss is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus teams from the SEC West.