No. 5 Notre Dame vs No. 2 Ohio State Odds & Predictions NCAAF

No. 5 Notre Dame vs No. 2 Ohio State | Odds & Predictions NCAAF

Written by on September 2, 2022

Two of the nation’s marquee programs meet to kick off the 2022 college football season truly in style on Saturday night as No. 5 Notre Dame visits No. 2 Ohio State, with the Buckeyes as shockingly heavy favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Notre Dame at Ohio State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Ohio Stadium
  • TV: ABC
  • Stream: ESPN+
  • Radio: ESPN radio
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Ohio State -17 (total 59)

Series History

Ohio State leads the all-time series 4-2-0. Saturday will mark the first regular-season meeting between Notre Dame and Ohio State since 1996. The two more recent meetings between the two schools occurred in the Fiesta Bowl 10 years apart (2006, 2016). Notre Dame and Ohio State rank 1-2 in all-time college football winning percentage (.7339 for ND, .7314 for OSU).

Why Bet on Notre Dame?

Tyler Buchner will make his first career start at quarterback for the Irish. The sophomore signal caller appeared in 10 games in 2021, finishing with six total touchdowns (three rushing, three passing), 298 passing yards and 368 rushing yards (7.0 ypc). Since Paul Hornung started his first career game against SMU in the 1955 season opener in Notre Dame Stadium, Irish quarterbacks are 42-16 (.724) in their first career starts.

The Irish have one of the nation’s top tight ends in Michael Mayer. He had 71 receptions last year, the most in a single season for a Notre Dame tight end. At 113 career receptions, Mayer has his eyes set on the school career receptions record by a tight end (140, Tyler Eifert, 2009-12).

Defensive end Isaiah Foskey enters the season with 15.5 career sacks in 29 games played. As he eyes the all-time sack record of 24.5 by Justin Tuck (2002-04), it also is noteworthy that Tuck is averaging over 1/2 a sack per game played (.53).

This marks the first time Notre Dame is kicking off the season in a top five matchup since 1990, when the top-ranked Irish defeated No. 4 Michigan 28-24 in Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame has won its last five season openers.

In the 109 seasons Notre Dame has won its opener, the Irish have gone on to post a winning record 93.5 percent of those campaigns (102). In 10 of the last 12 seasons, the Irish have scored the first points in the season’s opening game. Since 1958, Notre Dame is 38-4 (.904) in the season opener when scoring first, while they are 14-6 when the opponent registers the first score.

Since 1979, there have been just six top-5 matchups with a spread of 14 points or more. However, blowouts have been rare. Only one favorite covered the spread, and in 2001, Tennessee upset Florida in Gainesville, shaking up the national title race.

Why Bet on Ohio State?

Ohio State’s Ryan Day is in his sixth year with the program and his fourth as head coach. He is 34-4 overall and his teams are 18-1 at home and 13-4 vs. Top 25-ranked teams. At No. 5, Notre Dame is tied with Penn State (1978) and Alabama (1986) as the highest ranked season-opening opponent for Ohio State.  Over the last 10 seasons, Ohio State has a 36-9 record vs. ranked opponents for a .800 winning percentage. Ohio State is 14-3 (.824) vs. ranked opponents at home during this decade.

Ohio State has won 22 consecutive season-opening games dating back to a 23-12 loss to No. 12 Miami in the 1999 Kickoff Classic at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Overall, the Buckeyes have won 42 of their last 45 season openers.

Ohio State finished first nationally last season in scoring offense as the Buckeyes averaged 45.7 points per game. Ryan Day’s arrival in 2017, the Buckeyes have averaged 40 points or more per game every season. Ohio State is the only program in the nation to have such a streak.

Buckeyes star quarterback C.J. Stroud will make his fourth career start against a top-10 ranked team. Stroud had the nation’s top passer efficiency rating against top-10 teams in 2021 (minimum two starts) and tossed 14 touchdowns against just one interception. His efficiency rating of 203.6 was nearly 25 points higher than anyone in the country.

Stroud earned three Big Ten Conference major awards in 2021: the Graham-George Offensive Player of the Year, the Griese-Brees Quarterback of the Year and the Thompson-Randle El Freshman of the Year. Stroud is the first to earn offensive player of the year and freshman of the year in the same season.

Running back TreVeyon Henderson scored at least one touchdown in 10 of 13 games last season as a true freshman. He finished the season ninth nationally with 19 TDs scored, which was an Ohio State freshman record. Since 2019, Ohio State is 14-0 when it rushes for 250 yards or more. The Buckeyes did so twice last season: vs. Tulsa and Purdue.

WR Jaxon Smith Njigba closed out the 2021 season with five consecutive 100-yard games. That ties Cris Carter for the longest such streak in program history.

Notre Dame has struggled mightily away from home against elite teams. In their past 10 games away from home vs. top-10 opponents, the Irish are 0-10 and have lost by an average of 16.4 PPG. Against top-5 opponents, the numbers are even worse: 11 straight losses by an average of 19.6 PPG, with seven by at least 17 points.

Game Trends

  • Fighting Irish are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
  • Fighting Irish are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
  • Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 road games.

Expert Prediction

  • Ohio State 37, Notre Dame 23
 
 

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