Toledo vs. Western Michigan

Toledo vs. Western Michigan | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Written by on November 10, 2020

Three games from the Mid-American Conference in college football on Wednesday night and the marquee matchup is a huge one from the West Division at Toledo visits Western Michigan. The Broncos are short home favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Toledo vs. Western Michigan NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Wednesday, 8 PM ET
  • Where: Waldo Stadium
  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: WMU -2.5 (total 60)

Last Meeting.

A year ago, Toledo beat visiting Western Michigan 31-24. Mitchell Guadagni passed for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and he ran for two more scores. Western Michigan fell behind 14-0 when Toledo scored on its first two possessions, but pulled within a touchdown when LeVante Bellamy ripped a 39-yard scoring run with eight minutes left to play. The Bronco defense forced a three-and-out, but an 11-play final drive fell just short. Bryant Kobeck rushed for 177 yards on 21 carries to lead Toledo. Jon Wassink passed for 303 yards and two scores for the Broncos.

Toledo leads the all-time series with Western Michigan, 44-30, and has won the past three.

Why Bet on Toledo? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Toledo was selected to win the West Division of the Mid-American Conference in a poll of the league’s coaches. The league’s media chose the Rockets to come in second.

The Rockets opened their season last week with an easy 38-3 victory over Bowling Green. Toledo’s defense forced three turnovers to help the Rockets return the Battle of I-75 trophy to the school. Senior quarterback Eli Peters threw for a career-high four touchdowns. Peters finished the night 20-of-32 for 214 yards. He threw touchdowns to four different receivers.

Junior Shakif Seymour paced the running attack with 93 yards and one touchdown on 13 carries. Senior Bryant Koback added 74 yards on the ground and caught four passes for 50 yards and a touchdown. He now has 2,178 rushing yards for his career, passing Neil Trotter (1987-90, 2,168) to move into 17th on Toledo’s all-time career rushing list.

Toledo’s defense was impressive in the debut of defensive coordinator Vince Kehres. The Rockets held Bowling Green to 267 yards of offense, including just 111 in the first half. The Falcons completed just eight of 30 pass attempts and had two interceptions. Toledo took advantage of Bowling Green turnovers and miscues to score three touchdowns in the first quarter.

Three points was the fewest allowed by a Rocket defense against an FBS opponent since Oct. 8, 2005 when they held Eastern Michigan to three points as well. It was also the fewest allowed to the Falcons since Nov. 15, 1986 when Toledo won 22-3. Senior cornerback Samuel Womack broke up three passes vs. BGSU. A year ago, Womack was second in the nation with 15 pass breakups.

Through one game, Toledo leads the MAC in scoring defense (3.0), total offense (524.0) and rushing offense (310.0).

Why Bet on Western Michigan? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

WMU was picked to finish second in the MAC West Division by the league’s coaches. The Broncos received two first-place votes and totaled 53 points amongst the league’s coaches. WMU is just one point behind Toledo who was picked to win the MAC West with 54 points and four first-place votes. Since 2015 WMU has recorded 28 conference victories, the most in the MAC. Last season the Brown & Gold finished with a 7-6 overall record and 5-3 in MAC play. They only have one conference championship — in 2016 under former coach P.J. Fleck, now at Minnesota — in the last 32 years.

WMU had no trouble winning at Akron last week in its opener, 58-13. QB Kaleb Eleby had a career-high three touchdown passes and went 12-for-16 on the night for 262 yards. Receiver D’Wayne Eskridge caught three passes for 114 yards and two touchdowns, while Jaylen Hall caught a 68-yard touchdown pass.

The Broncos’ three-pronged rushing attack of La’Darius Jefferson, Sean Tyler and Jaxson Kincaide combined for 180 yards, with each scoring a touchdown. Jefferson, in his WMU debut, led the team with 70 yards on the ground.

WMU’s 30 points were the most in a first half in a road MAC game under head coach Tim Lester. It was also the third-most in a MAC game, the most being 31 vs Kent State (11/8/17) and Ball State (9/30/17). It was the fifth time a Lester coached WMU football team has scored at least 50 points in a game overall.

Western Michigan’s defense held the Zips to just 256 yards on offense. Senior A.J. Thomas, in his first game at linebacker after converting from safety, had seven tackles, two for a loss, and an interception returned for a touchdown. Reigning Mid-American Conference Defensive Player of the Year Treshaun Hayward led the team with eight tackles and a half sack. The Broncos return 22.5 sacks from last season.

Game Trends

  • Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win.
  • Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
  • Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Expert College Football Prediction

WMU 33, Toledo 30


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