The clay court season is in full swing, with weeks of big tournaments around the globe. With ATP events like Monte Carlo, Houston, Barcelona, Munich, and now Madrid in the rearview mirror, there are only two events left until the French Open. While many things could happen at the ATP Masters in Rome or the 250 events in Lyon and Geneva, the odds are clearing up for the second Grand Slam of the tennis season.
The French Open at Roland Garros in Paris runs from May 28 to June 11. The biggest question on the men’s side is who will play? The King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, has not played since January, and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic withdrew from the Madrid Masters but is expected to return to the Rome Masters on May 10.
The odds for the French Open are always changing with each tournament, and they have been updated after the Madrid Masters.
Let’s take a look at betting favorites for the French Open men’s event.
Next Grand Slam Betting Analysis: Early French Open Updated Odds for the Field
French Open Tournament Info: Roland-Garros | Updated ATP Odds
Category: ATP Masters 1000 / WTA 1000
When: May 28 – Jun 11, 2023
Where: Stade Roland Garros, Paris, XVIth arrondissement, France
Champions: Men’s singles, women’s singles, men’s and women’s doubles, and mixed doubles
Djokovic No Longer The Favorite
Novak Djokovic opened as the favorite for this event after the Australian Open at +140. Those odds moved to +150 after he returned to action in March. But now, given his early losses in the Monte Carlo round of 16 and the quarterfinals at Banja Luka, his odds are +208 at MyBookie.
Djokovic is still the No. 1 player in the world, though that could change at the Italian Open in Rome over the next 10 days. If Carlos Alcaraz wins and Djokovic goes out early, Alcaraz will become the new No. 1 heading into Roland Garros.
Grand Slams are what keep Djokovic going right now, especially after he missed multiple tournaments the last three years. Djokovic and Nadal are tied with 22 wins at Grand Slams, and both will be looking for a 23rd at Roland Garros.
If healthy and focused, very few people in the world can beat Djokovic on any surface. Clay is his most susceptible, with only two French Open titles. However, most of those have been won by Nadal, and Djokovic is 259-65 in his career on clay, including an 85-16 record at the French Open.
This spring has been all about Alcaraz. He now has four titles on the season, three on clay, He repeated at the Madrid Masters this weekend to go along with triumphs at the Indian Wells Masters, Barcelona, and Buenos Aires.
With those wins and a 29-2 record on the season, Alcaraz is now the betting favorite for the French Open at +108. Those tennis odds are down from +163 in April, as the Spaniard has gone 19-1 on clay this year.
Alcaraz won five events on clay in 2022 and reached the French Open quarterfinals, where he lost to Alexander Zverev. He finished last year with a US Open title before an injury caused him to miss the 2023 Australian Open. No matter what happens this week in Rome, Alcaraz will head to Paris as the favorite, and maybe as the No. 1 seed.
Can Nadal Get Healthy?
We haven’t seen Nadal swing a racket since January, and it’s growing very likely he won’t be ready for the French Open. He’s listed as the third favorite at +360, but that is all on name and not on reality.
Sure, he is 112-3 lifetime at Roland Garros and a 14-time champion. But Father Time is undefeated, and Nadal just can’t get healthy. It is nearly impossible to think he can go from not playing in four months to beating the best in the world in a grueling two-week event.
At MyBookie, everyone else is at least +880 to win the French Open. Last year’s runner-up, Casper Ruud, is +1875, and 2021 runner up Stefanos Tsitsipas, is +880. Italian Jannik Sinner has had a fantastic 2023 season, breaking into the top 10, and he’s +1250. Others to keep an eye on are Monte Carlo champion Andrey Rublev at +2600, Daniil Medvedev at +2500, and 2022 quarterfinalist Holger Rune at +1225.
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