Atlanta vs Milwaukee MLB Odds & Matchup Stats

Atlanta vs Milwaukee | MLB Odds & Matchup Stats

It’s a rematch of the 2021 National League Division Series on Monday when the Atlanta Braves, who of course won the NLDS on the way to the World Series, visit the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are short favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Braves at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves come off a 7-3 home loss to the Padres in 11 innings Sunday. Dansby Swanson went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run, a walk and an additional run scored in the loss. The 28-year-old also struck out twice but provided most of Atlanta’s offensive in the series finale with his 416-foot, two-run shot to center field during the fourth inning. It was Swanson’s third homer in his past eight contests, but strikeouts continue to be a problem as he totaled 11 during that stretch. He has a .229/.303/.407 slash line with four home runs, 14 RBI, 17 runs, four stolen bases and a 35.6 percent strikeout rate on the season.

Star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. missed his fourth consecutive game due to left groin soreness. An MRI over the weekend didn’t reveal anything serious. He appears likely to avoid a trip to the injured list and could play Monday.

The Braves’ four comeback wins this season are only one more than the lowest total in baseball. Boston, Oakland, Chicago (NL), St. Louis and Cincinnati have three such wins. The Braves are 2-5-4 in series play this season.

It’s right-hander Ian Anderson (3-1, 4.20) on the mound. Anderson surrendered three runs in 5 1/3 innings Wednesday in a no-decision against the Red Sox. Anderson should have been charged with at least one more run after departing in the sixth, but home plate umpire Adam Beck called an obvious low pitch strike three with two outs and the bases loaded, leading to the ejection of the batter, Kevin Plawecki, as well as Red Sox manager Alex Cora. Anderson struck out four and walked one.

His 17.1% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate are both the worst of his career, by far, and his velocity continues to sit at about a mile per hour less than he showed last year. Anderson won his lone career regular-season start vs. the Brewers, allowing one run over six last May.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers won the rubber match of their series in Miami on Sunday, 7-3. Kolten Wong went 2-for-2 with a homer, three walks and two steals. He’s 8-for-9 on the season in stolen bases and batting .257/.333/.431 in 126 plate appearances.

Shortstop Willy Adames had to leave Sunday’s today’s game due to what the team described as a right ankle sprain.  The injury was suffered in the first inning, as Adames’ right foot was caught while he was sliding home to score on a Luis Urias sacrifice fly. X-rays were negative but Adames may miss a game or two. He’s slashing .208/.304/.462 with nine home runs over his first 148 plate appearances.

Closer Josh Hader didn’t pitch Sunday but has converted 27 straight save opportunities dating back to last season, the longest active streak in the majors. Hader has made 34 consecutive scoreless appearances, covering 32.2 innings, dating back to 2021. During that time, opponents have hit just .084 off him. His 34 games and 32.2 innings scoreless are both the longest active streaks of any MLB pitcher. He last allowed a regular-season run on 7/28/21 at Pittsburgh.

It’s right-hander Freddy Peralta (2-1, 4.40) on the mound. Peralta had eight strikeouts across 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball Tuesday as the Brewers beat the Reds 5-4. Peralta surrendered back-to-back doubles in the second inning and also hit back-to-back batters in the third. He was pulled in the sixth following a two-out walk and single, but reliever Brent Suter was able to strand those runners. Peralta had a shaky first two starts of the season but has been excellent since then, holding a 2.08 ERA and 28/5 K/BB ratio over 21 2/3 frames across his last four outings.

Peralta is 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA in 4 career games/3 starts against the Braves (16.1ip, 8er), including a 10-9 victory in his only start last season on 5/16 at American Family Field. He also started Game 3 of the 2021 NLDS on 10/11 at Truist Park and received no decision in the 3-0 loss (4ip, 3h, 0r, 1bb, 5k).

The Brewers are 10-4 at home, going 3-1-1 in series play.

Game Trends

  • Braves are 14-6 in their last 20 vs. National League Central.
  • Braves are 27-12 in their last 39 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
  • Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
  • Braves are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Brewers 4, Braves 3
 
 

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