Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland | MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on August 19, 2022

The only three-way division race in baseball is from the AL Central and two of the contenders meet on Friday to open a big series as the White Sox visit the Guardians, who are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet White Sox at Guardians MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Chicago?

The White Sox come off a big series in Houston, winning the first two game in comebacks but losing the last two and then having to travel, albeit not far. With All-Star Tim Anderson likely out another month on the injured list, the Sox signed Elvis Andrus to a one-year contract on Thursday and he might debut after he was released earlier this week by Oakland.

Andrus, who is making $14 million this season, has 386 plate appearances, and he needed to reach 550 to convert a $15 million team option for 2023 into a player option. Andrus, who turns 34 on Aug. 26, is hitting .237 with eight home runs and 30 RBIs this season. Defensive Runs Saved pegs Andrus’ glovework at a dismal -6 runs this season, but Ultimate Zone Rating (2.4) and Outs Above Average (zero/average) are more bullish. Romy Gonzalez, recalled from Triple-A Charlotte Wednesday, and Lenyn Sosa are the shortstops currently on the Sox roster. Neither can hit a lick.

Star outfielder Luis Robert remained out of the White Sox lineup on Thursday. Robert did come off the bench on defense to finish out Wednesday night’s loss to the Astros, but he is still unable to swing at full strength because of a nagging left wrist injury. A cortisone injection was administered on Wednesday.

Closer Liam Hendriks has converted 18 consecutive save opportunities, the longest streak by a Sox reliever since Bobby Jenks in 2006 (19) and two short of the franchise record of 20 shared by Matt Karchner (1997-98) and Roberto Hernández (1996).

It’s Lance Lynn on the mound here. Lynn (3-5) earned the victory last Sunday over Detroit, striking out seven in six innings while allowing two runs on five hits. All the damage against Lynn came in the third inning, when three hits and a wild pitch led to two runs. After that, he cruised through the last three innings, facing the minimum as he erased the only hit with a double play. The veteran has a 3.34 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 34:2 K:BB in 29.2 innings over five starts since the All-Star break.

Lynn has faced the Guardians once this year on July 23 in Chicago and he threw six shutout innings in a no-decision. However, Lynn was crushed in Cleveland on July 11 and is 0-3 with a 7.46 ERA on the road.

Why Bet on Cleveland?

The Guardians lead the season matchup vs. the White Sox, 8-5, including a 5-2 record in Cleveland. The teams split a pair of four-game series in July (7/11-13 in Cleveland and 7/22-24 in Chicago), with the Sox losing the first two of each set before winning the final two. The Sox are 30-57 at Progressive Field since 2013.

All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez has struggled a bit in August, batting .242 with one home run, though he’s added 14 RBI and six runs scored in 17 contests, but he was 1-for-4 with a double, two RBIs and two runs in Wednesday’s win over the Tigers so he might be waking up. For the season, Ramirez is slashing .281/.351/.534 with 22 homers, 98 RBI, 65 runs scored and 14 stolen bases. He is one extra-base hit shy of 500 career and would become the 8th player in club history to reach the milestone, and the first since Carlos Santana in 2020. Since 2017, Ramirez’s 400 extra-base hits are the most in baseball.

A trio of Cleveland relievers (James Karinchak – 15.1IP, Sam Hentges – 13.0IP and Nick Sandlin – 12.0IP) own the 3 longest active scoreless streaks by A.L. relievers currently on a 26-man roster. Cleveland has not had 3-or-more relievers carry scoreless inning streaks of 12.0-or-more frames simultaneously since at least 1960. Since July 14, the Guards bullpen paces MLB with a 2.16 ERA and ranks highly in FIP (1st, 2.40), baserunners-per-9.0IP (1st, 9.09), SO/BB ratio (1st, 6.00), WHIP (T1st, 0.98) and opp. OPS (3rd, .592) in that span.

It’s Triston McKenzie on the mound here. McKenzie (8-9) allowed two earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out three across 6.2 innings to take the loss last Saturday against the Blue Jays. McKenzie served up a home run to lead off both the fifth and seventh innings, which ultimately led to his ninth loss of the season.

“It definitely makes us a little more competitive when it comes to what we call and how big the little things can be, like a solo home run or even a double,” McKenzie said about pitching in meaningful contests at this point of the season. “When you’re in these close games, it’s a little tighter, but I don’t think it changes the game plan.”

It marked the first time that McKenzie allowed multiple homers in his past seven starts, during which time he maintained a 1.70 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 48:12 K:BB across 47.2 frames. For the season, McKenzie has a 3.14 ERA with a 124:35 K:BB in 134.2 innings. The 25-year-old has posted six or more strikeouts in 13 of his 22 starts this season.

Game Trends

  • White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
  • Guardians are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.
  • White Sox are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
  • Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.

Expert Prediction

  • Guardians 5, White Sox 4
 
 

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