Mariners vs Dodgers

Mariners vs Dodgers | MLB Betting Analysis

Written by on May 12, 2021

The Seattle Mariners conclude their quick series at the World Series-favored but somewhat struggling Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday. Because it’s an interleague game in the National League park, the Mariners will not have the DH available. They are big underdogs on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Mariners at Angels MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Wednesday, 10:10 PM ET
  • Where: Dodger Stadium
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Justin Dunn/Julio Urias
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings

Why Bet on Seattle? | MLB Betting Analysis

The Mariners are batting .267 in high-leverage situations compared to .179 in low-leverage. The Mariners are batting .253 when ahead in the count this season compared to .163 when behind. When the count is even, Seattle batters are hitting .225.

While it won’t happen before this game, one note about Seattle: The team will call up outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic on Thursday. He’s ranked as a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball. Kelenic was pushing to make the Opening Day roster before a knee injury gave the M’s the cover they needed to send him to Triple-A Tacoma for a while for service-time reasons.

It’s right-hander Justin Dunn (1-0) on the mound. Dunn allowed one run over 5 1/3 innings last Tuesday in a no-decision against the Orioles. Dunn finished with six strikeouts and also issued four walks. He gave up only three hits, including a solo homer to Rio Ruiz, which accounted for the only damage against him. The 25-year-old has held his own at the major-league level recently, recording a 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 22/17 K/BB ratio across 25 2/3 innings (five starts) this season.

While Dunn has a solid 113 ERA+ through five starts. But the Mariners could benefit from him giving them length; he’s averaging right around five innings per start and has yet to reach six. He was originally to pitch Tuesday this week but was flip-flopped with Yusei Kikuchi on a temporary basis.

Dunn’s average fastball velocity in 2020 was a career-low 91.2 mph. This year, Dunn’s fastball is back up to 93.4 mph and the surrounding metrics behind it are promising too. He’s getting 130 more RPM on the heater this season, up to almost 2400 RPMs. That’s above average spin. He’s also changed his arm slot from a 1:15 orientation closer to a true 1:00 slot.

Dunn is 1 of 9 AL pitchers to make at least 5 starts this season without a loss. He was selected by the Dodgers in the 37th round of the 2013 Draft but did not sign and played at Boston College.

Why Bet on LA Dodgers? | MLB Betting Analysis

Since the start of the 2017 season the Dodgers have the most interleague wins in MLB (58), and the best interleague winning percentage (.659), narrowly ahead of the Red Sox (.658).

Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger (leg) has resumed running on the field. Bellinger revealed the news himself with an Instagram post of him stretching before doing some running. It’s a big step as he works his way back from a hairline fracture in his left fibula. Bellinger has been working out at the Dodgers’ alternate site but would seem to be close to being cleared for a rehab assignment.

It’s lefty Julio Urias (4-1, 3.59) on the mound. Urias allowed five runs on eight hits and no walks with four strikeouts in a loss against the Angels last Friday.  Justin Upton started things off in the second inning with a solo blast. Taylor Ward took Urias deep two batters later. A hit batter, a double, and a base hit would score two more before the inning was over. Shohei Ohtani would double in another run in the fifth. The 24-year-old carries a 3.59 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 42.2 innings. He holds a solid 7.67 K/BB this year after not walking anyone Friday.

On April 20 in Seattle, Urias had a career-best 11 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings — the best start of his career to date. It was the most strikeouts by a Dodgers starter so far this season, and it surpassed his previous personal high of nine, achieved on April 18, 2019, in Milwaukee. Those seven innings tied his season debut for the longest outing of his career.

An exceptionally sharp Urías allowed only two baserunners: a walk to Kyle Lewis, the second batter he faced, and an infield single to Mitch Haniger in the third. He was efficient, too, throwing 88 pitches, 68 for strikes.

“I just can’t recall any better [start], from the first pitch to the last pitch,” manager Dave Roberts said of Urías in that first Mariners outing. “Efficiency, command of all three pitches, getting ahead of hitters. He had complete control of command.”

Expert Prediction

  • Dodgers 6, Mariners 2

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