Miami Marlins 2020 Pre-Season Analysis

Miami Marlins 2020 Pre-Season Analysis

Written by on March 16, 2020

The Miami Marlins haven’t made the playoffs since winning the 2003 World Series and there’s no chance that the Marlins are playing extra baseball this year, either. It’s going to be another long season as there’s simply little talent there. Let’s check the MLB Odds and World Series Odds for the Miami Marlins 2020 Season.

Miami Marlins 2020 Pre-Season Analysis

Miami Marlins Offensive Analysis

Miami might be the most anonymous team in the major leagues, although the club did add some veterans this offseason who once were good but are now well past their prime.  The team signed outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year contract in free agency. Dickerson was a 2017 American League All-Star with Tampa Bay and won the National League Gold Glove for left field in 2018 with Pittsburgh.

Dickerson, 30, has been a steady hitter for the entirety of his major-league career. Of his seven MLB seasons, the only time he finished below a .263 average was in 2016 when he hit .245 in his first of two seasons for the Rays. He has driven in at least 50 runs in all five seasons that he has played at least 70 games and has hit at least 24 home runs in a season on three different occasions. Being a left-handed hitter helps, too, considering the only Marlins regulars to who hit lefty are Isan Diaz and switch-hitter Jonathan Villar.

Miami traded for Villar from Baltimore. Villar turned in a career year for Baltimore last season, hitting .274 with career highs in hits (176), home runs (24) and RBIs (73) in 162 games. He ranked third in stolen bases in the American League, with 40. The versatile Villar has played shortstop (385 games), second base (333), third base (54) and the outfield (13). He’s a career .261 hitter who had a career-best 62 stolen bases for Milwaukee in 2016.

Also added was slugger Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar was an All-Star for Milwaukee in 2018, when he had 35 home runs and 108 RBIs. This past season, he had 12 homers and 50 RBIs for the Brewers and Rays. He’s expected to share time at first with Garrett Cooper, who had 15 homers and 50 RBIs for Miami this year.

Francisco Cervelli should be the new everyday catcher. The 33-year-old began his career with the New York Yankees from 2008-’14, and has also played for Pittsburgh (2015-’19) and Atlanta (2019). He has a .269 career batting average over 714 games. He had one of his most productive seasons in 2018 with the Pirates, batting .259 in 104 games, while posting 15 doubles and career highs in home runs (12) and RBI (57). He led Major League catchers with a .376 on-base percentage that season. Cervelli has compiled a 3.83 catcher ERA in 672 career games behind the plate, which ranks 16th among qualified catchers (min. 480 games) since 2008.

Miami Marlins Pitching Analysis

The rotation has some potential with some good young arms. The No. 1 is likely to be Sandy Alcantara. The 24-year-old got better as last season went along but usually didn’t get any run support. Alcantara went 2-2 with a 2.59 ERA in September. Overall, he finished 6-14 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 151 strikeouts in 197.1 innings this season.

His sinker is the core of his repertoire, with a 27.6% usage rate. Its whiff rate was over two full standard deviations better than league average, and its Adjusted Contact Score was over one full standard deviation better. Alcantara’s sinker was a big grounder generator – his 58.6% grounder rate was well above the league average of 51.3%. That is a real strength.

Lefty Caleb Smith is the likely No. 2. Smith finished the 2019 season on a slightly sour note, but he has decent 4.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 256/93 K/BB ratio in 230 2/3 innings (44 starts) since the beginning of the 2018 campaign. Miami obtained l in an unheralded deal with the New York Yankees after the 2017 season. It’s indisputable that Smith has top-notch hit-or-miss stuff. Since joining the Marlins, he’s struck out 10 batters per nine innings on the hill, while maintaining a solid 2.75 K/BB rate.

Smith’s Achilles heel has always been his propensity to surrender the long-ball. Last season, he “led” the National League by giving up 33 dingers on his way to a 10-11 record and a 4.52 ERA.

Jose Urena also likely will start the year in the rotation. He ended last season in the bullpen but allowed just two runs in 14 innings this spring. Jordan Yamamoto has been part of the rotation since last June, minus some time on the injured list. The number five spot is to competition, with Sterling Sharp, Elieser Hernandez, Nick Neidert, Urena, Robert Dugger, and even top prospect Sixto Sanchez in the conversation.

Miami Marlins Offseason Movements

  • Miami Marlins Notable additions: 1B Jesus Aguilar, RP Brad Boxberger, C Francisco Cervelli, OF Corey Dickerson, RP Yimi Garcia, OF Matt Joyce, OF Matt Kemp, RP Brandon Kintzler, IF Sean Rodriguez, RP Stephen Tarpley, IF Jonathan Villar.
  • Miami Marlins Notable subtractions: IF Starlin Castro (WSH), SP Wei-Yin Chen (SEA), RP Tayron Guerrero (CWS).

Miami Marlins Season Odds

Marlins +30000 to win World Series and +25000 for NL pennant.