2023 NBA East Playoffs Miami at Milwaukee Betting Preview

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The Milwaukee Bucks host the Miami Heat in what should be one of Wednesday’s night’s most intriguing games. The Bucks will enter the matchup a huge spread line chalk. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Wesley Matthews have been upgraded to probable, which might explain why the home team is such a big favorite. Will the Heat do enough for an ATS victory?

Keep reading for NBA Playoff betting lines, analysis, and free picks for Milwaukee Bucks hosting the Miami Heat.

2023 NBA Playoffs East First Round Game 5 Betting Preview: Miami at Milwaukee| MyBookie NBA Preview

East 1st Round – Game 5, NY leads series 3-1
NBA Odds: Milwaukee -12 | Miami +450 / Milwaukee -630 | O/U 220
When: Wednesday, April 26 at 9:30 pm ET
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
TV / Streaming: NBA TV

Why Bet on Miami versus Milwaukee?

The Miami Heat have a 3-1 lead over Milwaukee because they have Jimmy Butler and the Bucks don’t. In Game 4, Milwaukee held an 11 point lead against the Heat heading into the fourth quarter.

Jimmy Butler took charge and rallied Miami to a 119-114 victory. The Heat outscored the Bucks 41-28 in the fourth. Butler scored 56 points in the game. Even though this matchup happens in Milwaukee, unless the Bucks figure out a way to stop Jimmy B., Miami will challenge for the straight up win on their way to covering the spread.

Miami Heat Offensive Averages

Points/G: 109.5
FG %: 46.0
3PT %: 34.4
FT %: 83.1
Rebounds/G: 40.6

Miami Heat Defensive Averages

Points/G: 109.8
FG %: 48.2
3PT %: 36.7
FT %: 78.1
Rebounds/G: 41.8

Why Bet on Milwaukee versus Miami?

The Milwaukee Bucks know they had the game won. The implosion is a bad sign, but Heat fans shouldn’t expect another fourth quarter performance like the one Milwaukee gave in Game 4 on Wednesday night.

Milwaukee plays in front of their fans in Game 5. Not only that, but it’s Giannis’ second game back from an injury he suffered in the first contest. Antetokounmpo should be much sharper and if he guards Jimmy Butler, there’s a real chance Giannis wins the matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Averages

Points/G: 116.9
FG %: 47.3
3PT %: 36.8
FT %: 74.3
Rebounds/G: 48.6

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Averages

Points/G: 113.3
FG %: 45.6
3PT %: 35.4
FT %: 77.6
Rebounds/G: 44.2

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends

Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day rest
Miami is ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning % above .600
Over is 7-0 in the Heat’s last 7 following an ATS win
Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest
Miami is 13-11-1 against the spread and 19-6 overall when it scores more than 113.3 points
Milwaukee has an ATS record of 24-6-4 and a 31-3 record overall when its opponents score fewer than 109.5 points

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat
Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, B. Adebayo

Milwaukee Bucks
Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, K. Middleton, G. Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Injuries

Miami Heat
Bam Adebayo (Hamstring – Game Time), Victor Oladipo (Knee – Out), Tyler Herro (Hand – Out)

Milwaukee Bucks
None

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

The Bucks should win this game, but it won’t be as easy as the -11 points imply. As good as Milwaukee is, they don’t have a player, even Giannis, who can guard Jimmy one-on-one.

Butler is one of the top players in the league. He has been for a while, which is why Miami gets the cover victory even though the Bucks should eke out a straight up win.

The Heat respond to Jimmy. Not only that, but lost among Butler’s performance in Game 4 is the fact the Heat outrebounded the Bucks 47-46.

Kevin Love may not be scoring a lot of points. But the former Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers player has grabbed 7 boards in each of the last two games. Love is crashing the glass and he’s doing a great job.
Bucks win SU. Miami wins ATS.

NBA Odds: Milwaukee -12 | Miami +450 / Milwaukee -630 | O/U 220
NBA Playoffs Round 1 Prediction: Miami Heat +11 | Bet Heat at Bucks Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game